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Bank of Japan policy steady. U.S. GDP weaker than expected Busy week ahead
|Bank of Japan policy steady. U.S. GDP weaker than expected Busy week ahead|
29 April 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: JP- Holiday. Europe: EZ- Business/Consumer Sentiment CPI (HICP). North America: US- Personal Income, Pending Homes Sales
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Holiday, EZ- CPI (HICP), EZ- PMI final. US- Pending Homes Sales
- 1Q13 U.S. preliminary GDP on Friday was a weaker than expected annualized +2.50%. The data suggested that the FOMC would remain cautious in its policy decision on Wednesday and defer any trimming of Quantitative Ease (QE).
- Weaker than expected German and Eurozone PMI data and a surprisingly soft German IFO Survey last week set the stage for the ECB meeting on Thursday. The consensus of professional forecasters has shifted from no change in policy on to expectations for a -25bp cut.. In any case, a 25bp rate cut in the 0.75% refi rate would have little impact on the Eurozone economy, but it would send a clear psychological message of support. We are unclear on what they will do.
- This week could be disrupted by a number of holidays on Wednesday (May Day) and the Golden Days holidays over the week in Japan.
- The first week of the month sees the release of PMI data from a slew of countries.
||JGB 0.58% -0bp
||Asia:Mixed to Lower|
||Bund 1.21% -3bp
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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