Monday April 29, 2013 - 03:40:11 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 29-Apr-2013 -0338 GMT
Nifty (5871.45, -44.85, -0.76%): After a relentless rally the Nifty has finally taken a breather and looks likely to consolidate in the coming days. A ranged move between 5780-5950 can be expected. We expect any retracement on the downside would likely present a great buying opportunity. Our longer term bullish stance in the Nifty stays intact.
DAX (7,814.76,-18.10,-0.23%): Has finally taken a breather after a terrific counter trend move. Resistance sets in at 7900. Support for the index is likely to come in around 7600.
Dow Jones (14,712.50, +11.75, +0.08%): Traded sideways for the entire day and managed to close in the green despite lower than expected GDP figures of +2.48% against market consensus of 3.00%. Going forward we expect ranged movements. Upsides look capped around 14850–14900 and short term down side support stands at 14600. We are long term bullish on Dow and view 14000 levels as great buying zone on the longer time horizon.
Shanghai (2177.91) and Nikkei ((13884.10) are closed today.
Gold (1469.10, +15.50, +1.07%): Has risen more than we had expected. Should find resistance around the 1475 region. We maintain our bearishness for now.
Brent Crude (102.72, -0.44, -0.43%): is very close to the resistance level of 103. We expect the range of 98 -103 to hold unless Brent propels past 103 on a closing basis and closes above it.
Silver (24.170, +0.412): is closing in around a short term resistance zone around 25. The risk-reward ratio favours a fall.
Copper (3.1730): 3 .25 will be a key level to watch going forward. Unless this level gets breached decisively on a closing basis, Copper will continue to trade weak.
The Dollar Index (82.29) has retreated a bit from the 82.70 region. It is being unable to decide whether to rise towards 84-85 or fall back towards 80.00. Overall, the currency market has been consolidative with a few currencies strengthening against the Dollar.
The Euro (1.5515) continues to consolidate between 1.30-32. The Yen (97.46) ran into significant profit-taking on Friday and has dipped further today. The Euro-Yen Cross (127.26) also saw a big fall on Friday. It has an important Moving Average Support near current levels, but could decline towards 125 if that breaks.
The Pound (1.5515) has strengthened further, but has good Resistance coming up in the 1.5570-5600 region now. Dollar-Swiss (0.9417) had risen to 0.95 last week, but has come off from there. It has chances of falling towards 0.93-92 in the coming days as the near term outlook is consolidative between 0.92-95.
The Aussie (1.0300) is consolidating above 1.0250-25. The outlook is unclear and there could be chances of continued sideways trade between 1.0200-0450 for the next few days/ weeks.
Significant strength in the Singapore Dollar (1.2341). We see chances of 1.2300 as the current 200-day MA (1.2339) Support could break. The Brazilian Real (1.9962) continues to consolidate sideways below the 200-day MA at 2.0250.
Dollar-Rupee (54.38) is also consolidative but should be itching to break the 53.75-54.55-54.80 range sometime soon. We prefer a stronger Rupee, of course.
India is looking for a rate cut by the RBI on Friday (3rd May). The 10-Yr GOI (7.77%) has decent chances of falling towards 7.60%, if not lower. Dollar-Rupee Forward Premia (6-mth 6.88%) can also come off further if that happens.
The Germany-USA 10-Yr Spread (-0.46%) is consolidating a bit. We have to see if it falls towards -0.50% or not. The Spanish 10-Yr (3.07%) continues to be in a downtrend, which should be good for the Euro.
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Biz Climate
...Expected 89.0 ...Previous 90.0
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Personal Income
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 1.07 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.68 %
...Actual 2.48 % ...Previous 0.38 %
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