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Monday April 29, 2013 - 10:15:43 GMT
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FX markets seem to be in a positioning phase ahead of key central bank policy meetings (FOMC and ECB) and Friday's US employment report. EU Market Update: Italy 5-year and 10-year auction results solid after coalition govt formed
Mon, 29 Apr 2013 5:52 AM EST

- Japan's Golden Week holidays begin, while China was also closed on Monday.
- China YTD industrial profits as of Q1 slowed markedly relative to Jan-Feb
- China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) expects faster growth of exports and imports in 2013
- PM Gillard: Australia to deliver budget surpluses in mid-term; Confirms revenue shortfall may be up to A$12B by FY-end
- Italy forged a new coalition govt between the new PM Letta and Berlusconi's center-right party gaining high-profile cabinet seats; Parliament is expected to hold a vote of confidence
- Italy 5-year and 10-year auction results seen as solid with yields at lowest level since Oct 2010
- Positioning ahead of key central bank policy meetings (FOMC & ECB) and Friday's US NFP report

***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Apr Consumer Confidence: 6.4 v 10.8e
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Saxony M/M: -0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior
- (ES) Spain Mar Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -8.9% v -8.9%e; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: % v -10.4% prior
- (ES) Spain Apr Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.1%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.2%e

- (DK0 Denmark Apr Industrial Confidence: -4.0
- (TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Confidence: 75.6 v 74.9 prior
- (EU) ECB: 5.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 2.0B prior; 109.7M parked in deposit facility vs. 111.5B prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 1.8%
- (SE) Sweden Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.3%e
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.4 v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Hesse M/M: -0.6 v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.3% prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Hourly Wages M/M; 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
- (NO) Norway Q1 Industrial Confidence: 1 v 5 prior
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.5% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.9 v 1.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.4% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Business Climate Indicator: -0.93 v -0.91e; Consumer Confidence: -22.3 v -22.3e; Economic Confidence: 88.6 v 89.3e; Industrial Confidence: -13.8 v -13.5e; Services Confidence: -11.1 v -7.1e
- (IT) Italy Apr Business Confidence: 87.6 v 88.9e; Economic Sentiment: 74.6 v 78.5 prior
- (PT) Portugal Apr Consumer Confidence: -54.2 v -55.3 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -3.6 v -3.9 prior
- (IC) Iceland Apr CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.9% prior

Fixed Income:
- (DK) Denmark sold ISK3.0B in 1-month, 5-month and 7-month Bills
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 6.0B vs. 6.0B indicated in 2018 and 2023 BTP bonds
- Sold 3Bvs. 2.0-3.0BB indicated range in 3.5% June 2018 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 2.84% (lowest since Oct 2010) v 3.65% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.36x v 1.22 x prior
- Sold 3B v 2.0-3.0B indicated range 4.50% Nov 2023 BTP bonds, Avg yield 3.94% (lowest since Oct 2010) v 4.66% prior; bid to cover 1.42x 1.33x prior
- (DE) Germany sold 2.815B in 12 Month BuBills; Avg Yield: 0.0018% v 0.0166% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.5x prior


FTSE 100 flat at 6,428,
DAX +0.30% at 7,842, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,834, IBEX-35 +1.3% at 8,402, FTSE MIB +1.6% at 16,825, SMI 0.25% at 7,877, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,581

- European equity markets are broadly higher. Italy's FTSE MIB has outperformed as a coalition government was formed in the country. Key events for the week include rate decisions from the US Fed and ECB and monthly US payrolls data. Banks are broadly higher, led by Italian financials. Resource-rated firms are mostly higher, in line with the gains being seen in metal prices.

- Belgium movers [Ageas +5.5% (asset sale)]
- UK movers [Aberdeen Asset Management +8.5% (H1 profits rose y/y), Rentokil +5% (sold stake in City Link), Persimmon +3% (broker commentary); Balfour Beatty -11% (profit warning for UK unit), Greggs -7% (profit warning), Sainsbury -1% (broker commentary), WPP -1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [BASF -3% (broker commentary, ex-dividend), Bayer -2% (ex-dividend)]
- Norway movers [Aker Solutions -20% (profit warning)]

- Germany BGA Exporters Group updated its outlook for Sector and noted that trade would not contribute as usual to 2013 GDP growth
. It cuts 2013 view on exports to grow +3% vs. prior 5% and cited European debt crisis. BGA also cut its 2013 view on imports to 1.0% v prior 5.5% rise. It did forecast 2013 German GDP growth between 0.7-0.8%
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes noted that it would take longer to reach inflation target while the economic recovery was seen at a gradual pace. Several indicators supported recovery picture. The Board discussed policy effect on employment and household debt; Sweden was more indebted compared to other countries and housing gains were driving household debt growth
- Gov Ingves: No reason to radically reassess monetary policy; must consider risks of debt becoming excessive high; should not have blind faith in monetary policy; household debt might be taken into account in rate decision; Board might react If SEK currency strengthens or weakens substantially and impacts inflation outlook
- Member Jansson in Minutes: Risks from Household debt have not declined; Risk of too low inflation behind lower Apr Repo Rate forecasts; SEK currency strength has downward pressure on inflation; current SEK level should not be a problem for exporters
- Member AF Jocknick: Household debt ratio to rise over the next 12 months; sees greather chance of rate cut than hike in next year
- Member Wickman-Parak: Could easily imagine a stronger growth outlook thsi year
- German Govt spokesperson Seibert: France and German in discussion on competitiveness goals
- Germany Debt Agency reiterated it had no plans to change auction calendar thus far, still planning nominal issuance for 2013 at 173B. it still planned to issue 8-12B in linkers and had no timing for Deutschland bonds nor saw evidence of Japanese buying German bonds
- Foreign currency bond issuance looks unlikely for 2013.
- Iceland centre-right leader Benediktsson: Split on PM not being discussed at moment; Optimistic on easing capital controls (**Note comments following weekend elections)
- Russia President Putin stated that he saw positive progress in Russia-Japan ties (*Reminder: Japanese PM Abe was to meet Russian President Putin in Moscow on Monday)
- Poland Fin Min Rostowski: Debt to GDP ratio below 40% would be a good entry point to adopt Euro
- Poland Dep Labor Min: April Unemployment Rate seen improving towards 14.0% (**Note March was 14.3%)
- Slovenia President Pahor reiterated the view that Slovenia would not be the next Cyprus as he argued that the euro-zone member state's economic problems were no worse than those of other European nations. Cyprus's banking sector was eight times larger than its gross domestic products. Slovenia's banking sector is only 1.3 times its GDP
- Israel Central bank chief Fischer commented that If bank hadn't lowered rate, growth would be
- India Central Bank Gov Subbarao commented that he did discuss macroeconomic situation with Fin Min Chidambaram (**Reminder: RBI rate decision set for Friday, May 3rd)
- Malaysia Central Bank Gov Zeti: Domestic economy is strong boosted by investment; Growth forecast has priced in China's slowing economy
- Thailand Finance Ministry stated that it would maintain its 2013 GDP growth forecast of 5.3% and saw Q1 growth at 6.0%

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets seem to be in a positioning phase ahead of key central bank policy meetings (FOMC and ECB) and Friday's US employment report.
- Dealers noted that sentiment was to fade into EUR rallies amid increasing expectations that the ECB will cut rates after weak spat of economic data
- JPY continued its retracement following disappointment from Friday's BoJ policy announcement in which no new easing measures were discussed.

Political/In the Papers:
- Italy forms a coalition government: Enrico Letta (center-left PD) formed a coalition govt in Italy with Berlusconi's center-right PDL party and was sworn in as the new P.M. Letta plans to prioritize economy, unemployment, and restore confidence in Italian govt. He appointed Angelino Alfano, secretary of Berlusconi's (PDL) party, as Dep PM / Interior Minister as part of the grand coalition compromise.
- Greece passed public sector job cuts bill unlocking the next Troika bailout tranche. The bill calls for dismissal of 15,000 civil servants by the end of 2014, including 4,000 this year.
- China Industrial profits slow in March. March profits y/y were +5.3% and Mar YTD y/y were +12.1% v +17.2% prior. A UBS economist commented that, "demand in March was not improved, output prices were weak, and there was a higher base for comparison with the previous year."
- (EU) German Economist Hans-Werner Sinn: Weak euro countries should be allowed to take steps to grow the economy either in their original currencies or with the euro, an option to temporarily leave the EU - Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Mistake to keep the weak countries of southern Europe as it could break both the euro and the countries
- (EU) EU Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) may deepen European debt crisis - Telegraph; According to a letter submitted by the International Banking Federation (IBF) the follow-on effects of proposed levy would negatively harm ordinary citizens, businesses of all sizes, in all industries.
- (FR) France Pres Hollande may announce a cut in capital gains taxes on Monday to help convince investors that France is pro-business - FT
- (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Debt mutualization in Europe would result in a downgrade of Germany, would have dampened appetite for reforms; The current Euro exchange rate around 1.30 is 'ok' for Germany.
- (IT) Goldman Sachs: Formation of a new govt in Italy is a short-term positive for Italian govt bonds
- (IT) Moodys affirms Italy's Baa2 government rating; outlook remains negative; Moody's lowers forecast for 2013 Italy GDP to-1.8% (from -1.0%), forecasts 2014 GDP at +0.2%.
- (FR) The leaked French Socialist draft document that was critical of Germany (and the UK) and the Bundesbank's letter to the German Constitutional Court objecting to the ECB's Outright Market Transactions do not really reveal anything new and we do not expect them to influence trading in the new week.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) EU Task Force for Greece quarterly report
- (ES) German Fin Min Scheauble with Spain Fin Min De Guindos on investment
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total vs. 2.8-3.8B indicated range in 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2028 OLO Bonds
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Apr CPI Bavaria M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell 2016, 2018, 2021, 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.2 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.4%e v 8.1% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (FI) Finland Fin Min Urpilainen holds press conference
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.2%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1%e v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Personal Income: 0.4%e v 1.1% prior; Personal Spending: 0.0%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Deflator M/M: -0.1%e v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 8.0B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills

- 0930 (BR) Brazil Mar Tax Collections (BRL): 83.9Be v 76.1B prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (US) Mar Pending Home Sales M/M: +0.9%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.1%e v 5.0% prior
- 10:30 (US) Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 5.0 v 7.4 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $53.0B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil MarCentral Govt Budget (BRL): +2.7Be v -6.4B prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Mar Jobless Rate: 4.2%e v 4.3% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Mar Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: -7.1%e v -10.5% prior



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