Monday April 29, 2013 - 20:09:51 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Tuesday 30 April 2013
Global market sentiment: The equity market uptrends resumed last night, the S&P500 currently up 0.9% to within a whisker of a fresh record high. Helping fuel the move was the formation of a government in Italy, weak Eurozone confidence surveys and weak German inflation (raising expectations the ECB will ease this week), and strong US home sales combined with weak core inflation (supporting the continuation of quantitative easing there). Commodities followed suit, the CRB index up 1.4% (copper +1.1% and gold 1.0%).
Interest rates: US treasuries, on the other hand, did not follow suit, the 10yr yield content to range between 1.65% and 1.68%. Australia’s 3yr bond yield ranged near its multi-month low, between 2.56% and 2.58%, while the 10yr yield ranged between 3.10% and 3.13%.
Currencies: The US dollar index was hurt by the risk seeking atmosphere. EUR rose from 1.3045 to 1.3116 and then ranged sideways during the London afternoon. USD/JPY firmed from 97.60 to 98.20. AUD extended its Sydney afternoon rally from 1.0306 to 1.0358. Outperformer NZD similarly pushed higher from 0.8515 to 0.8576. AUD/NZD slipped from 1.2125 to 1.2075.
US core PCE deflator flat in March. That looks soft but the Jan and Feb deflators were revised up from 0.166 and 0.056 to 0.183 and 0.066 respectively. The March outcome of 0.032 needs to be viewed in the context of that 0.027 ppts upward revision earlier in the qtr. That said, these are all benign inflation outcomes that delivered the 1.2% annualised Q1 core PCE deflator published last week. The report also showed modest 0.2% gains in personal income and spending in March, the latter stronger than expected but consistent with the acceleration in spending to the 3.2% annualised pace already reported in the Q1 data.
US pending home sales rose 1.5% in Mar, from a downwardly revised Feb, now a decline of –1.0% (was –0.4%), to the highest level of sales since the home-buyer tax credit boosted the market temporarily in late 2009 and early 2010.
US Dallas Fed factory index plunged from 7.4 to –15.6 in April, its first sub-zero reading for the year, but mirroring similar mid-year plunges in 2010, 2011 and 2012 (though in those years the plunge occurred in June or July). Most of the regional and national business surveys for the US have displayed similar repeated patterns in the four years since the recession ended, casting some doubt on the survey integrity, and diminishing the economic downturn signal (and indeed the prior activity upswing signal at the turn of the year). That said, all the regional Fed factory survey headlines have been weaker in April, despite some mixed detail; the Dallas detail showed orders and shipments both falling below zero but jobs rising from 3 to 6.
Eurozone economic confidence and business climate index lower in April. The BCI fell from –0.75 to –0.93, while the ECI fell from 90.1 to 88.6. Both have fallen two months in a row in Mar-Apr, reversing turn of the year optimism inspired in part by the ECB’s OMT program, just like happened a year earlier when LTRO enthusiasm fizzled.
German inflation fell from 1.4% to 1.2% yr in the preliminary April report, its lowest since Sep 2010. That makes it likely that tomorrow’s flash estimate for Eurozone inflation in April will fall to 1.6% or lower, adding to the pressure on the ECB to demonstrate that its “close to but below 2%” inflation objective works both ways in terms of policy response (in April/July 2011 the ECB tightened when inflation was running just above 2.5% yr).
UK house prices rose 0.2% yr in April according to the Hometrack survey, its first positive annual growth pace since 2010.
Event risk today: The local calendars are busy with second-tier data. NZ has building permits, business confidence and credit aggregates, while Australia also has the latter. Tonight there’s EZ unemployment and inflation, and the closely watched Chicago PMI.
NZD/USD 1 day: Looks extended intraday so a pullback towards 0.8535 is expected.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 remains intact as long as 0.8160 holds. The currency benefits from NZ’s strong fundamentals plus a resurgence of NZGB inflows.
AUD/NZD 1 day: Should 1.2075 give way today, we would expect a fresh multi-month low under 1.2050.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The trend decline towards 1.2000 remains in progress. Relative fundamentals (including RBA vs RBNZ) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening up 2bp at 2.85%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: The downward correction which started on 15 Feb could yet extend lower to the 2.70%-2.80% area. As long as that area holds though, we expect an eventual rise above 3.20% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening.
AUD/USD 1 day: Looks extended intraday so a pullback towards 1.0300 is expected.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The sideways consolidation since August 2012 remains in progress. Within that, the multi-week outlook is negative.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 30 April 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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