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Tuesday April 30, 2013 - 10:15:21 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Plethora of data releases add little new information to the overall picture ahead of key rate decisions; Euro Zone Unemployment at fresh record level of 12.1%

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Plethora of data releases add little new information to the overall picture ahead of key rate decisions; Euro Zone Unemployment at fresh record level of 12.1%
Tue, 30 Apr 2013 5:42 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Italy PM Letta won the first of two confidence votes. In Chamber of Deputies (Lower House) he was backed by PD, PDL & Monti's Centrists; Senate (Upper House) expected to vote today (Tuesday)
- S&P comments on new coalition Italy Govt; Says BBB+ sovereign ratings unaffected, outlook remains negative
- US Treasury expects to pay down $35B in debt in Q2 (vs. $17B borrowing est prior)
- Mix batch of Japanese data b with March Jobless Rate coming in better ( 4.1% v 4.2%e) while Mar PMI rises to 51.1 from 50.4. However Mar Industrial Production misses with MoM at 0.2% v 0.4%e
- Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence hits 5-year high aided by stable labor market and low inflation
- No surprises in Spain Q1 Prelim GDP (in line with central bank's prediction but still its seventh consecutive quarterly contraction)
- Germany Apr Unemployment Change registers its second straight monthly increase
- Italy Mar Prelim Unemployment Rate retreats from 20-year highs, comes in at 11.5% v 11.7%e
- Euro Zone Unemployment hits fresh EMU record of 12.1% (as expected)
- European inflation continues to fall steeply
- Dealers noted that the plethora of data would unlikely add new information to the overall picture ahead of key rate decisions


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Annualized Housing Starts: 904K v 890Ke; Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.0%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: -3.4% v +16.3% prior
- (PH) Philippines Mar Bank Lending Y/Y: 14.7% v 14.5% prior; Bank Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y: 14.2% v 15.1% prior
- (PH) Philippines Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 11.4% v 9.9% prior
- (DE) Germany May GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 6.2 v 5.9e (5-year high)
- (DE) Germany Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -1.2%e
- (DE) Germany Mar ILO Employment: 41.788M v 41.73M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.4% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.5% v 7.5%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.3%e
- (FI) Finland Feb Final Trade Balance: -75M v -85M prelim
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 29th (RUB): 7.63T v 7.65T prior
- (FR) France Mar Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.4%e
- (FR) France Mar Consumer Spending M/M: 1.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.0%e
- (ES) Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.5%e (seventh consecutive quarterly contraction); Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Producer Prices M/M: 1.6% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e
- (DK) Denmark Mar Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 4.6%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 6.0%e
- (TR) Turkey Mar Trade Balance: -$7.4B v -$8.3Be
- (EU) ECB: 17.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 5.0M prior; 119.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 109.7B prior
- (AT) Austria Mar Producer Price Index M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.3% prior
- (TH) Thailand Mar Current Account: $1.9B v $1.5Be; Total Trade Account Balance: $2.0B v $0.6B prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$65M v +$1.6B prior
- (TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 54.4 v 51.2 prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Unemployment Change: +4K v +2Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.9%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.5% v 11.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Mar Money Supply Y/Y: 4.4 v 4.1% prior
- (NO) Norway Feb AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.6%e
- (NO) Norway Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -4.2% v -0.6% prior
- (ES) Spain Feb Current Account: -1.3B v -2.6B prior
- (UK) Mar Net Consumer Credit: 0.5B v 0.5Be; Net Lending: 0.4B v 0.6Be
- (UK) Mar Mortgage Approvals: 53.5K v 52.7Ke

- (UK) Mar M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.9% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.6% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 4.6% v 3.1%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Govt Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): -10.9B v -6.2B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.5% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.2% v 8.5% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 17.6% v 13.6% prior
- (ES) Spain Feb Total Housing Permits M/M: 24.1% v 19.7% prior; Y/Y: -10.1% v -26.8% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.6%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Unemployment Rate: 12.1% v 12.1%e (fresh record level)

- (IS) Iceland Q1 Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 4.7% prior
- (BE) Belgium Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.6%e
- (GR) Greece Feb Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -14.4% v -16.8% prior; Retail Sales Value: -14.4% v -16.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0N in 8-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.62% vs. $1.3B prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF684.2M in 3-month Bills; Yield: -0.125% v -0.111% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 105.0B in 6-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75% vs. 110.4B prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF40B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Months Bills; Avg Yield: 4.27% v 4.26% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.71x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 1.83B vs. 1.5-2.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 775M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield -0.001% v +0.015% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.01x v 3.02x prior
- Sold 1.05B in 6-month Bills; Avg yield +0.014% v 0.050% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.66x v 2.34x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 500M in 0.375% I/L 2062 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.213% v +0.040% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.07x

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.05% at 6,461
, DAX +0.70% at 7,928, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,863, IBEX-35 -0.20% a 8,438, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 16,919, SMI +0.20% at 7,922, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,588

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, as Deutsche Bank, Lloyds and UBS are gaining on better than expected quarterly results. The gains in Deutsche Bank have driven the outperformance in Germany's DAX. Resource related firms are trading mixed, although BP has outperformed on better than expected earnings. US companies due to report earnings later today include Aetna, Avon Products, Cummins, Oshkosh, Pfizer and US Steel.

- UK movers [Carphone Warehouse +12% (Q4 European sales +6.5% y/y), Aquarius Platinum +7% (Q1 loss narrowed), Lloyds +4.5% (Q1 profits rose y/y), BP +3% (Q1 profits above ests); Wolfson Microelectronics -6% (margins declined y/y), Centrica -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Deutsche Bank +5.5% (capital raise was well subscribed), Wacker Chemie +3% (reaffirmed outlook), Metro +1.5% (broker commentary); Qiagen -5% (Q1 sales below ests),Fresenius Medical Care -4% (Q1 results below estimates)]
- France movers [Eramet -1.5% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]
- Italy movers [Luxottica -2% (Q1 sales below ests), Fiat -1.5% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Spain movers [Gamesa -1% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]
- Switzerland movers [UBS +4.5% (Q1 results above ests), Geberit +1% (Q1 sales rose y/y); Clariant -1% (margins declined y/y)]
- Belgium movers [Anheuser-Busch -2.5% (Q1 results below ests)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Honohan (Ireland)
commented that restoring Irish financial stability and economy was a significant challenge; there was an increased prospect of a successful program exit year-end
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos commented that all of Spain's Govt was committed to cutting taxes as soon as possible. He added that its unemployment situation would improve slowly as leading indicators signaled a recovery in country. Proposal to withdraw 500 note was "reasonable"
- BoE's Miles commented that he sawCPI around current level for rest of 2013 and moving close to 2.0% by early next year
- German Labor Ministry commented that a strong winter accounted for rise in joblessness as companies were more hesitant to add new workers but not laying them off either
- Russia President Putin gives Cabinet until Nov for luxury tax legislative change
- Greece Finance Ministry: Paid 3.7B in arrears to end of April
- Turkey Central Bank Inflation Report noted that Q1 inflation was at 7.3% and above its expectations but did maintain its 2013 Food Inflation at 7.0% and end-2013 Inflation at 5.3%. It also maintained end-2013 Inflation at 4.9% and its medium term inflation at 5.0%. it noted it would keep flexible monetary policy approach to counter volatile capital inflows
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci stated that it would take reserve requirement steps if loan growth above 15%. He also noted tat if effective exchange rate rose above 120 would consider measured cut in short-term rates (TRY currency appreciation might trigger measured rate cut_. Economic growth recovered slightly in the first quarter and is expected to be higher this year
- Hungary Central bank Gov Matolcsy commented that it would review two-week bill regime change (no decision had yet to be made). He added that it was likely it would not allow banks not active in Hungary to buy 2-week bills. It also approved up to 2.5% margin for retail banks (Consists of Interest Margin plus Guarantee Fee). He also noted that its monetary policy was conservative and responsible

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Month-end doldrums and pending May Day holiday seemed to curb interest in FX price action despite the rash of economic data released in the session. Dealers noted that the plethora of data would unlikely add new information to the overall picture. Major FX maintained established ranges with limited action ahead of key policy meetings later in the week, along with tomorrow's holiday in mainland Europe and Golden Week in Japan.
- The EUR/USD drifted lower in the session as dealers noted good offers in the pair from 1.3130 reportedly out of the Middle East. The pair was steady at 1.3075 as the NY morning approached

Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Eurogroup Chief Dijsselbloem: Troika determines Greece to have met its targets, EFSF approved to provide payment of 2.8B aid tranche to Greece
-(IT) Italy PM Letta's new government wins confidence vote in Italian lower house of Parliament (as expected); Senate (upper house) to hold its confidence vote Tuesday
- (IT) S&P comments on new coalition Italy Govt; ratings unaffected
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Financial Stability Report: Banking sector remains vulnerable to credit rating downgrade; Foreign buying of Italian debt up since Spring 2012
-(US) Treasury Quarterly financing estimates: To pay down $35B in debt in April to June quarter vs pay down of $10B estimate: Note: The pay down in debt for the April to June quarter would mark the first time the Treasury paid down net marketable debt in 6 years

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ES) Spain Mar YTD Budget Balance: No est v -23.56B prior
- (CY) Cyprus Parliament vote on Bailout package
- (IT) Italy PM Letta confidence vote in Upper House (Senate)

- (IS) Iceland Mar Final Trade Balance (ISK): No est v 8.9B prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Mar Inflation Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.7% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.5% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -5.1% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Employment Report
- 06:00 (EU) ECB member Honohan
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell Bonds
- 06:15 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen with NBIM CEO in Parliament Committee
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 6-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP); to drains 202.5B
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr NBP Inflation Expectations: 1.2%e v 1.6% prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Budget Balance (ZA): -4.0Be v +9.7B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Trade Balance (ZAR): -8.5Be v -9.5B prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Employment Cost Index: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior (revised from 0.5%)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.0% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.0%e v 1.4% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 2.2% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) ECB member Honohan in Parliamen
- 09:00 (US) Apr NAPM-Milwaukee: 51.50e v 50.98 prior
- 09:00 (US) Feb S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.80%e v 1.02% prior; Y/Y: 9.00%e v 8.08% prior; S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: 146.43e v 146.14 prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Manufacturing Index: 0.1%e v 0.9% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.7%e v 7.4% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Total Copper Production: No est v 420.2K tons prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.4%e v 6.2% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -23.3B prior; Primary Budget Balance: +5.6Be v -3.0B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v 35.7% prior
- 09:45 (US) Apr Chicago Purchasing Manager: 52.6e v 52.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Consumer Confidence: 61.0e v 59.7 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.296T prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.25B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $53B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Mar National Unemployment Rate: No est v 11.8% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 11.4%e v 12.3% prior
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho at conference
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar in Parliament
- 12:30 (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan in Parliament
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 21:00 (CN) China Apr Manufacturing PMI: 50.7e v 50.9 prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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