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Tuesday April 30, 2013 - 15:49:00 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Markets Await FOMC, ECB Decisions, US April Jobs Report US Market Update: Markets Await FOMC, ECB Decisions, US April Jobs Report
Tue, 30 Apr 2013 11:23 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.5% v 6.7% prior
- (PT) Portugal Mar Industrial Production M/M: 5.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: +0.8% v -1.1% prior
- (PT) Portugal Mar Retail Sales M/M: -2.9% v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: -6.0% v -5.3% prior
- (ES) Spain Mar YTD Budget Balance: No est v -23.56B prior
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Apr 27th w/w: +0.4%; y/y: +2.6%
- (US) Q1 Employment Cost Index: 0.3% v 0.5%e
- (CA) Canada Feb Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.3%e
- (CA) Canada Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -1.7% v +0.5%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Apr 27th: +2.8% y/y, Apr MTD: -2.5% m/m; Apr MTD: +2.2% y/y
- (US) Apr NAPM-Milwaukee: 48.43 v 51.50e
- (US) Feb S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 1.24% v 0.90%e; Y/Y: 9.32% v 9.00%e; S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: 146.57 v 146.43e
- (BR) Brazil Mar Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -15.9B v -23.3B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 3.5B v 5.7Be; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 35.5% v 35.5%e
- (US) Apr Chicago Purchasing Manager: 49.0 v 52.5e
- (US) Apr Consumer Confidence: 68.1 v 61.0e
- (MX) Mexico Mar Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): 2.306T v 2.296T prior

- After an early dip in trading that followed the weak April Chicago PMI data, US indices are back to about flat on the day. As of writing the DJIA is still down 0.22%, the S&P500 is -0.1% and the Nasdaq is up 0.15%. Things are steady ahead of three days of impactful events: the FOMC announcement arrives tomorrow, the ECB decision drops on Thursday and Friday will see the April US jobs report.

- Two economic reports out today emphasized the positive in the US economy: the Conference Board's April consumer confidence reading rose to 68.1 from an upwardly revised 61.9 in March, widely beating expectations of 60.8. Meanwhile the S&P/Case Shiller index of housing prices gained 1.2%, the highest rate of growth seen in more than six years. According to the S&P/CS survey, average home prices are back to autumn 2003 levels for both the 10-city and 20-city composites. Recall that yesterday's very good March pending home sales data suggests the housing trends seen in February are continuing, aiding consumer confidence.

- Another regional manufacturing report heighted the negative: the April Chicago PMI reports slumped to a 3.5 year low, ticking below 50 into contraction territory. This follows the April Dallas Fed manufacturing report yesterday, which saw its first negative reading since last November.

- EUR/USD was flat through most of the European session. The euro started strengthening ahead of the Chicago PMI drop and then spiked even higher after the disappointing data. As of writing EUR/USD was just shy of 1.3180, near two-week highs.

- Pitney Bowes slashed its quarterly dividend by 50% along with its Q1 earnings report this morning. The firm's Q1 net profit fell nearly 60% y/y, in line with expectations. According to the company, the funds saved by the lower dividend will allow it to "invest in its business and enhance its capital structure." Shares of PBI are down more than 17%.

- Avon is up 8% after the firm's earnings blew out expectations on very strong margin performance. The firm's US and China sales slumped, however other emerging markets sales held or grew.

- Office Depot missed expectations and saw a 5% decline in sales comps. However, investors are concentrating on a potential breakthrough in OfficeMax's ongoing attempts to acquire its rival, as the board of Office Depot said it would hold a special meeting to seek approval of the merger from holders, under pressure from Starboard Value LP. Shares of ODP are up 5%.

- Pharma giant Pfizer is down 3% after the company trimmed its FY13 outlook. Earnings were up decently on a y/y basis, although they fell a bit short of consensus views. Revenue on the other hand fell nearly 10% y/y.

***Looking Ahead***
- (CY) Cyprus Parliament vote on Bailout package
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $53B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Mar National Unemployment Rate: No est v 11.8% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 11.4%e v 12.3% prior
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho at conference
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar in Parliament
- 12:30 (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan in Parliament
- (US) Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting
- 16:00 (US) Annual TIC report on foreign holdings of U.S. securities
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 21:00 (CN) China Apr Manufacturing PMI: 50.7e v 50.9 prior



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