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Wednesday May 1, 2013 - 10:23:06 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: USD Index at 2-month lows ahead of FOMC Rate decision with rising expectations that the language could be more dovish; UK PMI Manufacturing beats expectations

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: USD Index at 2-month lows ahead of FOMC Rate decision with rising expectations that the language could be more dovish; UK PMI Manufacturing beats expectations
Wed, 01 May 2013 5:31 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China: Apr PMI Manufacturing at 50.6 vs 50.7e (7th straight month of expansion)
-Cyprus Parliament narrowly passes its 10B bailout (vote 29-27)
- Moody's cuts Slovenia sovereign rating two2 notches to Ba1 (junk status); outlook negative
-Ireland: cut its GDP forecasts for 2013 and 2014 period; (2013 to 1.3% from 1.5%; 2014 to 2.4% from 2.5%)
- Bulk of Europe and Asia closed for holiday
- Rising expectations that the language from the Fed today could be more dovish


***Economic Data***
- (PE) Peru Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e
- (TH) Thailand Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.8%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Sales Y/Y: +2.0% v -15.6% prior
- (UK) Apr Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.3%e
- (IE) Ireland Apr NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 v 48.6 prior; second straight contraction and lowest reading since Sept 2011
- (AU) Australia Apr RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 86.2 v 87.9 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -6.5% v -7.5% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 v 48.0 prior
- (UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 49.8 v 48.5e
- (DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: 49.5 v 51.9prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.% at 6,457, Continental Europe closed for Labour Day Holiday


- With most of the European equity markets closed in observance of May Day, the FTSE 100 has traded slightly higher (+0.40%). Trading in the banking sector has been mixed. Barclays and Lloyds are gaining on the session, while shares of RBS have lagged, as the firm is due to report quarterly earnings later in the week. In terms of movers, Antofagasta has gained over 2% (Q1 copper production rose), while Oxford Biomedica is higher by more than 10% (announced an agreement with Novartis). Overall, trading has been cautious ahead of the later today US Fed rate decision and Thursday's ECB policy meeting. Additionally, traders are expected to focus on monthly payrolls data out of the US, which is due to be released on Friday. US companies due to report earnings later today include Chesapeake Energy, Clorox, CVS, Humana, Mastercard, Merck and Time Warner.


Speakers:
- BoE Tucker commented that the UK economy was not as bad as statistics might suggest.
He noted that negative interest rates "most unlikely" to happen. The expanded FLS scheme might take several quarters to see effect
- BOJ Dir Tanaka stated that it had urged the FED to weigh concerns on proposed rule on capital and liquidity for foreign banks. The BOJ noted the the rules should not hamper international coordination on efforts to enhance global financial stability system. Fed should apply liquidity requirements flexibly and not in a 'one-fits-all' approach
- ESM commented that Euro-area nations paid additional 16B into fund as bailout facility received third tranche. It expected the remaining tranches to be paid in Oct 2013 and April 2014.
- Australia Fin Min Wong commented that the end of the mining boom creates a new fiscal reality as lower govt revenues were the new norm. She also noted that fiscal policy gave the RBA room to cut rates

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was overall subdued as most of Europe was closed for today's Labour Day holiday. The USD maintained its soft tone after Tuesday's plunge on mixed US data. Markets will now eye the FOMC rate decision later today with rising expectations that the language from the Fed today could be more dovish
- The GBP/USD tested above its 100-day moving average of 1.5562 for first time in over three months after UK PMI Manufacturing data handily beat expectations
- The USD/JPY pair failed to move below the 97 handle in Asia spurring dealer chatter of a possible binary option play remains intact. There were several reports circulating of an outstanding 97.00-104.00 option structure

Political/In the Papers:
- (IE) Ireland Finance Ministry: To maintain planned 2015 fiscal adjustment of 5.1B, sees no further cuts needed in 2016; Planning to use savings from promissory note for deficit reduction; Cuts 2013 GDP forecast to +1.3% from +1.5% prior; Cuts 2014 GDP forecast to +2.4% from +2.5% prior
- (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar: Economy to grow 0.6%, unemployment to reach 18.5% in 2014; Budget consolidation measures in 2014 to amount to 2.8B.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- France President Hollande to meet with Italy PM Letta on Wed May 1st
- 06:00 ((IE) Ireland Apr Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -2.2K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.0% prior; Live Register Level: No est v 426.1 prior
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 26th: No est v 0.2% prior
- 08:15 (US) Apr ADP Employment Change: 150Ke v 158K prior
- 08:30 (CA) Apr RBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.3 prior
- 08:58 (US) Apr Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 50.6e v 48.3 prelim
- 09:00 (US) Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
- 10:00 (US) Mar Construction Spending M/M: 0.6%e v 1.2% prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr ISM Manufacturing: 51.0e v 51.3 prior; Prices Paid: 52.6e v 54.5 prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Inventories
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leaves Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 14:00 (UK) BOE member Broadbent in London
- 15:30 (US) Treasury Miller
- 16:00 (UK) BOE Dep Gov Bailey
- 17:00 (US) Apr Total Vehicle Sales: 15.28Me v 15.22M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 12.00Me v 12.00M prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Apr HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 50.5e v 51.6 prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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