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No Fed surprise. ADP jobs soft. ECB rate cut Thursday?
|No Fed surprise. ADP jobs soft. ECB rate cut Thursday?|
2 May 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: JP- BOJ Minutes, CN- HSBC final PMI. Europe: EZ/CH/DE/FR- Mfg PMIs, ECB Rates North America: CA- Trade, US- Trade, Productivity, Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- Mfg PMI, ECB, US- Trade, Weekly Jobs
- The FOMC decision Wednesday was cautious to neutral as expected. They explicitly left the door open to an increase or decrease in bond purchases depending on economic data. Bottom-line future policy decisions are data dependent.
- U.S. data released over the day were mostly weaker than expected.
- U.K. April Manufacturing PMI at 49.8 was virtually at the "50" expansion level. It suggests a steady policy from the BOE next Thursday. .
- The ECB decision Thursday is key. On Wednesday an unnamed ECB official appeared to signal a rate cut is in store.This would have little impact on the economy but send a support message. There is a lot of room for a disappointment if there is no ECB action.
- Japanese Golden Week holidays continue off and on all week..
||JGB 0.59% -2bp
||Bund 1.22% +2bp
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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