Wednesday July 20, 2005 - 01:17:29 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 20th July 2005 Price:
Resistance: 113.02 ... 113.38 ... 113.57 ... 114.01
Support....: 112.54 ... 112.35 ... 112.00 ... 111.47
The 113.02-08 area needs to hold now else the rally continues to 114.01-14
The rally continued and has reached key resistance at 112.99-113.02. For the rally to follow-through we require 112.54-57 to support and for a breach of this resistance area to take us to 113.38 at least and we feel a move to 113.57 is more likely where a pullback is possible before a final move to 114.01-14.
Having reached critical resistance at 112.99-113.02 a bearish scenario requires that this remain intact while confirmation of losses will need a move back below 112.54. Once seen this should allow losses back down to 111.95-112.04 at least and probably the 111.47 corrective low. Any prior test of 114.01-14 would provide an excellent selling opportunity.
Elliott Wave Comments:
18th July 2005
We remain with a daily target around 114.01-14 where daily Wave [c] is equal to 161.8% of Wave [a] and Wave [iii] is equal to 138.2% of Wave [i]. At this point we need to decide whether the decline to 110.73 completed Wave -iv- of Wave [c] and thus we are witnessing Wave -v- or whether Wave -iv- is more complex and thus the 110.73 low was merely Wave a of a complex correction.
In the rally from 110.73 we are more inclined to label this a double zig-zag which would imply a complex correction with potential targets at 112.71 and possibly as high as 113.01-08 in an expanded flat. If this is true then we should see a return to the 110.36 area which represents a 50% retracement in Wave -iv-.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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