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Thursday May 2, 2013 - 11:03:23 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Market participants focus on ECB rate decision with uncertainty abounding to whether the central bank will fulfill demands for a rate cut EU Market Update: Market participants focus on ECB rate decision with uncertainty abounding to whether the central bank will fulfill demands for a rate cut
Thu, 02 May 2013 5:38 AM EST

-FOMC left its interest rates unchanged (as expected) and would continue to purchase treasuries and MBS at current pace. Fed did see downside risks to economic outlook and prepared to increase or decrease pace of bond purchases
- Another weak manufacturing PMI reading out of China.
- China Premier Li Keqiang said to have requested a study to seek sustainable economic growth and could lower official GDP target in cleanup after Wen era to 7.0% from 7.5%
- Major European PMI Manufacturing data shows slight improvement from preliminary readings but all in contraction territory; Swiss PMI did regained the 50 level
- Hungary sells record low yields at its 3-year, 5-year and 10-year bond sale
- ECB rate decision the main focus On Wednesday an unnamed ECB official appeared to signal a rate cut is in store. Lots of room for a disappointment if there is no ECB action

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Apr Markit PMI Manufacturing: 51.0 v 52.0 prior; lowest reading since Nov 2011

- (SE) Sweden Apr Swedbank PMI Survey: 49.6 v 51.0e, 3-month low
- (HU) Hungary Apr PMI: 51.7 v 55.5 prior
- (TR) Turkey Apr Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 52.3 prior
- (PL) Poland Apr Manufacturing PMI:46.9 v 47.8e, approx 4-year low
- (EU) ECB: €20.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €17.0M prior; €120.8B parked in deposit facility vs. €119.1B prior
- (ES) Spain Apr Manufacturing PMI: 44.7 v 44.6e (24th straight contraction)
- (CZ) Czech Republic Apr Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 v 49.1 prior
- (CH) Swiss Apr PMI Manufacturing: 50.2 v 49.0e
- (IT) Italy Apr PMI Manufacturing: 45.5 v 45.0e; 21st straight monthly contraction
- (FR) France Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 44.4 v v 44.4e; 14th straight reading in contraction territory
- (DE) Germany Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 48.1 v 47.9e; lowest since Dec and confirms first contraction in 5 months
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 46.5 v 46.5e

- (GR) Greece Apr Manufacturing PMI: 45.0 v 42.1 prior; (highest since July 2011, 44th straight month of contraction
- (IT) Italy Mar PPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e
- (NO) Norway Mar Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.2%e
- (DE) VDMA: March plant and equipment orders Y/Y: -4%
- (UK) Apr PMI Construction: 49.4 v v 48.0e
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 9.8% v 14.7%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 10.2% v 13.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Kagiso PMI: 50.5 v 48.7e
- (CY) Cyprus Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.5% v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v +1.1% prior

Fixed Income:
- (FR)) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €7.93B v €7.0-8.0B indicated in 2021, 2023 and 2032 Oats
- Sold €990M in 3.25% Oct 2021 OAT, Avg Yield 1.42% v 2.85% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 2.90x prior
- Sold €4.015B in new 1.75% 2023 Oat; Avg Yield 1.81% v 1.94% prior (record low); Bid-to-cover: 2.0 v 3.1x prior
- Sold€2.92B in 5.75% Oct 2032 OAT; Avg Yield 2.50% v 2.84% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.2x v 2.24x prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B in 1.5% 2023 Bonds; Yield: 1.6070% v 1.8490% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.73x v 1.63x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF67.5B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds (record low yields for all three issues)


FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,433
, DAX +0.10% at 7,924, CAC-40 -0.30% at 3,844, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 8,451, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 16,712, SMI -0.30% at 7,880, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,580

-. European equity markets are trading mixed, as traders assess earnings report and await the upcoming ECB rate decision. Germany's DAX has seen slight outperformance supported by earnings from Infineon, Lufthansa, Metro and BMW. European banks are mostly lower, as UK banks underperformed (RBS due to report quarterly earnings on Friday).

- UK movers [BG +2.5% (Q1 profits above ests), Shell +0.50% (Q1 profits above ests); Imagination Technologies -16% (issued profit warning), Avocet Mining -7.5% (Q1 production declined y/y), Inmarsat -6% (Q1 profits declined), Randgold -4.5% (Q1 profits declined y/y), Millenium & Copthorne -3% (Q1 profits declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Infineon +6.5% (Q1 results above ests, positive outlook), Lufthansa +4% (reaffirmed outlook), Metro +2.5% (Q1 results above ests), BMW +2% (Q1 EBIT above ests, reaffirmed forecast), Beiersdorf +2% (Q1 margins improved, reaffirmed outlook), Hugo Boss +1% (reaffirmed outlook); ThyssenKrupp -3% (concerns related to sale of CSA unit), Siemens -0.40% (Q1 sales below ests, cut outlook)]
- France movers [Cap Gemini +3.5% (reaffirmed FY outlook); Sanofi -2% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Switzerland movers [ Swisscom -1% (Q1 results below ests)]
- The Netherlands movers [DSM -1% (Q1 sales below ests)]

- EU's Barroso commented after meeting Italy PM Letta that it was urgent to increase economic growth and create jobs in Europe
. Healthy public finances were a pre-requisite for both growth and jobs. He noted that political stability had returned to Italy and the country must continue to implement broad structural reforms. Must not relax the drive towards banking union and that the EU Commission stood ready to assist Italy. Reducing debt was an unavoidable task for Italy
- Italy PM Letta stated that the country would to stick by the prior govt economic commitments. Needed by June positive measures for European growth and help restore confidence with youth unemployment must be the top priority at the June EU Leader Summit
- Italy Fin Min Saccomanni commented that it was fundamental that Italy leave EU excessive deficit procedure to lower borrowing costs. The extra €12B could allow Italy to give important stimulus to investments. The country might be able to exit EU deficit procedure in next weeks.
- OECD Economic Survey of Italy cut itss 2013 GDP to -1.5% from -1.0% and forecasted 2014 GDP growth at +0.5%. Expected Italy Private Consumption to decline in 2013, 2014. Debt left Italy exposed to sudden market sentiment shifts. Italy Banks should increase provisions and sell non-core assets and stressed that any fiscal relaxation would be a "very risky strategy" for Italy
- German Fin Min Schaeuble stated that he was considering withdrawing flat-rate withholding tax. He added that the anti-Euro party won't succeed and he could not imagine Euro collapsing
- German DIW chief Fratzscher commented that an ECB rate cut would have limited effect. Such a cut could have both positive and negative effects and the ECB has many options at its disposal. He stressed that it was important that German Bundesbank was actively involved in discussions on any possible rate cut
- China Premier Li Keqiang was said to have requested a study to seek sustainable economic growth and it might lower GDP target in cleanup after Wen era. The result could have China set 2014 GDP growth target at 7.0% vs. 7.5% current official target to address problems created by rapid expansion ('credit binge') under the administration of former Premier Wen Jiabao
- China Vice Premier Ma Kai commented that China should raise resource taxes and begin levying environment taxes. China should encourage companies to participate in carbon trading
- Asian Development Bank (ADB) Chief Nakao commentded that he saw lower economic growth in advanced economies while stronger Asian growth to continue. Mindful of impact of capital flows on emerging markets and that inflows to Asia could compensate for European bank deleveraging. He added that expansionary policies in Advanced (Industrial) countries were needed and a positive for global economy as a whole
- Philippine Central Bank Gov Tetangco noted that inflation had been contained and it had allowed the PHP currency (peso) to appreciate in response to capital flows
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan is trying to end deflation through Abenomics which is good for Asia as a whole
- S&P raised Philippines sovereign rating to BBB- (investment grade) from BB+; Outlook stable
- S&P lowered Indonesia sovereign outlook to stable from positive; Affims BB+ rating

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- In FX most accounts were unwilling to commit to large positions ahead of today's ECB policy outcome.
- The FOMC met expectations yesterday, with no obvious hint of tapering amid modest growth. The Fed did not publicly alter its view on the economy of key components
- The EUR/USD was steady as dealers suspected the market had shifted away from expecting EUR weakness on a rate cut. Some also hope for more non-standard measures. Nonetheless the slight improvement in the Major European PMI Manufacturing might give ECB hawks enough ammunition to back up their arguments at today's ECB meeting to keep rates steady.
- GBP/USD drifted towards the 1.56 handle as the pair has benefited from expectations that the BoE likely to hold off on any fresh QE after string of better data (Recent Q1 GDP, PMI) suggesting a gradual improvement
- The USD/JPY continued to hold above the 97.00 (overnight low was 97.08) with that binary option play remaining intact with 97 as the lower end of the structure. The large bid at the figure rumored to be a sovereign name.

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) S&P comments on Slovenia credit rating, have no need to change rating; outlook Stable; Notes that Slovenia has shown access to funding markets
- (GR) Greece Finance Ministry's 2014 property tax plan is €1.0B off the €3.2B target - ekathimerini
- (UK) BoE's Broadbent: The better Q1 UK data does not alter my view on the state of the economy, softening employment reports are just as important.
- (US) Treasury quarterly refunding announcement: $72B total package: Will keep note and bond auction sizes stable in coming quarters, but gradually decrease coupon auction sizes based on fiscal situation;

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Competitive Council Holds Informal Meeting
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel visits Jena-Optronik Electronics Plant at Jena
- (US) President Obama travels to Central America
- (RU) Russia Apr Reserve Fund: No est v $83.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $86.8B prior
- (RO) Romania Apr Total International Reserves: No est v $36.4B prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Budget Balance: No est v -€21.4B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -€36.3B prior
- (RO) Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 5.25% prior
- (CZ) Czech Apr Budget Balance (CZK): No est v 14.0B prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Repo Rate unchanged at 0.05% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 26th: No est v $515.2B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -3.5% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -6.9% prior
- 06:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy at conference in Estoril
- 07:00 (EU) EU's Barroso
- 07:30 (US) Apr Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 49.2K prior; Y/Y: No est v 30.0% prior
- 07:30 (US) May RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 50.3 prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Main Refi Rate by 25bps to 0.50%; Leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Mar Trade Balance: -$42.3Be v -$43.0B prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: +1.0%e v -1.9% prior; Unit Labor Costs: 0.7%e v 4.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 345Ke v 339K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.035Me v 3.000M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$0.7Be v -C$1.0B prior
- 08:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi holds post rate decision press conference

- 08:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with Portugal PM Coelho
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Apr PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.8 prior
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to Sell Bonds
- 09:30 (SG) Singapore Apr Purchasing Managers Index: 50.3e v 50.6 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 51.3e v 51.9 prior
- 09:45 (US) Apr ISM New York: No est v 51.2 prior
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Apr Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): No est v 481.9B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Remittances: $1.9Be v $1.6B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 11:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel gives Interview to Brigitte Live
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Apr New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -4.9% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Apr IMEF Manufacturing Index: 52.0e v 51.3 prior; Non Manufacturing: 51.9e v 51.3 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Trade Balance: -$950Me v $164M prior; Exports: $20.7Be v $19.3B prior; Imports: $21.8Be v $19.2B prior
- 16:00 (CA) Ontario Finance Minister Sousa Presents 2013-14 Budget
- 21:00 (CN) China Apr Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.6 prior




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