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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB members clarify possibility on negative rates; EU Commission paints a gloomier picture for Europe

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB members clarify possibility on negative rates; EU Commission paints a gloomier picture for Europe
Fri, 03 May 2013 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (CN) China Apr Non-Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 vs. 55.6 prior (14th straight month of expansion)
- India RBI cuts interest rates for 4th time in current easing cycle
- Financial press report that suggested that some at ECB wanted a bigger cut
- ECB members out in force putting their spin on yesterday's rate cut and solidarity among its council
- ECB's Nowotny: Draghi's comments on possible negative interest rates had been over-interpreted,

- New EU Commission economic forecasts paint gloomier picture for Europe
- Focus moves to US April payroll report


***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) cut Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rates by 25bps each to 7.25% and 6.25% respectively; Left Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) unchanged at 4.00% (all as expected)

- (IE) Ireland Apr NCB Services PMI: 55.2 v 52.3 prior; three-month high
- (CH) Swiss Q1 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.17 v 1.11 prior
- (NO) Norway Apr PMI SA: 48.9 v 49.8e
- (HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: 639.4M v 672.6M prelim
- (TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.8% prior
- (TR) Turkey Apr Producer Prices M/M: -0.5% v +0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.3% prior
- (EU) ECB: 1.79B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 20.0M prior; parked in deposit facility vs. 120.8B prior
- (NO) Norway Apr Unemployment Rate: 2.6% v2.6%e
- (BR) Brazil Apr FIPE CPI: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (UK) Apr PMI Services: 52.9 v 52.4e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Mar PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e


Fixed Income:


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,468,
DAX +0.10% at 7,971, CAC 40 -0.10% at 3,856, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 8,443, FTSE MIB -0.20% at 16,718, SMI -0.40% at 7,874, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,590

- Equity markets in Europe are trading mixed as traders assess the recent rate moves and commentary out of the ECB. Additionally, the April US payrolls report is expected to be in focus. European banks are trading mixed, following earnings reports from BNP and RBS. Resources related firms are mostly higher, tracking the gains in copper and gold prices.

- UK movers [Man Group +8% (capital reduction plan), Smurfit Kappa +3% (Q1 sales rose y/y); RBS -4% (Q1 sales declined y/y on markets unit), Direct Line Insurance -2% (Q1 gross written premiums declined)]
- Germany Movers [Sky Deutschland +6% (Q1 EBITDA above ests), Adidas +5.5% (Q1 profits above ests), ThyssenKrupp +5% (broker commentary), Telefonica Deutschland +2% (affirmed outlook), Continental AG +1% (Q1 profits above ests); Hugo Boss -6% (share placement)]
- France movers [CGGVeritas +9% (swung to profit in Q1), Vallourec +8.5% (Q1 profits above ests), BNP +0.50% (Q1 results above ests); Air France -3% (reported Q1 net loss), Remy Cointreau -2% (share placement)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) commented during a CNBC interview that ECB's Draghi's comments (from yesterday's press conference) on possible negative interest rates had been over-interpreted,
there were no concrete plans to cut the deposit rate into negative territory at this point. No major Central bank had ever had a negative deposit rate and such a scenario must be analyzed and discussed in more detail. During the Asian session he commented that the central bank rate cut decision was a reaction to a very weak economy and it would stick with policy of low interest rates for a 'long time'. He added that the ECB could only create preconditions for growth
- ECB's Liikanen reiterated that the central bank was ready to act if necessary and that unintended consequences of actions must be addressed. He also reiterates that ECB had assessed negative interest rates. He added that there was no split on decision to cut Refi rate by 25bps although some members might have different opinions
- ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): Completion of banking union is key challenge ahead
- ECB's Reinesch (Luxembourg): Recent ECB rate cut will improve outlook
- EU Commission updated its economic forecasts which painted a gloomier picture for Europe.The EU now saw Euro Zone GDP at -0.4 vs. +0.1% winter forecast and cut most member State outlook.
- EU's Rehn commented that it would present country specific recommendations by the end of May and stressed that countries must proceed with reforms and rebalancing efforts
. EU saw modest rise in employment in Europe next year and that slower consolidation reflects increased fiscal credibility and better policies. France growth forecast is overly optimistic, reasonable to extend deficit cut by 2-years. Spain to get two more years for budget consolidation. He added that Slovenia could receive more time for budget cuts if it presents broader strategy to address its economic problems
- India Central Bank (RBI) comments from its rate decision reiterated it sees limited room for monetary easing as upside risks to inflation remain significant in the short term. The central bank would use all instruments to condition inflation to 5.0% by end of current fiscal year (Mar 2014). Risks from current account deficit could warrant swift reversal of policy stance. The RBI cut its FY14 GDP growth outlook to 5.5% from 5.7% prior
- India Fin Min Chidambaram: Recent sign of global economic recovery are weak and uncertain; Eurozone crisis continues to pose a serious risk
- South Korea Unification Min: Reached an agreement with North on worker exit from Kaeseong jv

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.31 handle in early European trading after ECB member Nowotny clarified Draghi's comments from yesterday's press conference
. Nowotny stated that markets had over-interpreted the possibility of negative interest rates occurring.
- The GBP maintained a firm tone after a string of decent economic numbers which underpinned expectations that the UK economy would record modest growth in Q2. The pair hovered around the mid-1.55 area after better-than-expected Services PMI

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB Draghi: The prevailing consensus was for a 25bps cut; reiterates that the ECB is "technically prepared" for negative deposit rates; ECB is ready to act again if necessary
-(EU) Some members of the ECB governing council said to have been prepared to take stronger moves - financial press; Constancio and Noyer said to have wanted to do more, some members prepared for a 50bps move

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IE Ireland Mar Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.2% prior
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (US) SEC Chairman White at ICI meeting
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Industrial Production M/M: +1.3%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.4%e v -3.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +140Ke v +88K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +160Ke v +95K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +5Ke v -3K prior; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision: +5Ke v -3K prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Unemployment Rate: 7.6%e v 7.6% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 13.8% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v -206K prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.8% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.6e v 34.6 prior

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Apr PMI Services: No est v 50.3 prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior
- 09:30 (PT) Portugal Budget Sec Sarmento
- 10:00 (US) Mar Factory Orders: -2.9%e v +3.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Durable goods revisions
- 10:00 (US) Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 54.0e v 54.4 prior

- 12:00 (HU) Hungary PM Orban in Portugal
- 12:30 (US( Fed's Tarullo on financial stability in Washington DC
- 12:45 (US) Fed's Lacker Speaks on the Economy in Richmond, Virginia
- 13:05 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney gives panel remarks in Toronto
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Producer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior

 

 

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