Monday May 6, 2013 - 03:43:34 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 06-May-2013 -0341 GMT
The US, European markets and global commodities closed with good gainS last Friday after faster than forecast U.S employment growth bolstered optimism in the world’s largest economy, pushing equities and all risky assets higher.
Dow Jones( 14,974.00, +142.38, +0.96%) ended the day above 14900 which had remained unconquered on a closing basis.Close above 14900 on a weekly basis is a very bullish outcome . Now the new trading range for the Dow is likely to shift upwards between 14800-15200 gouing forward.
Dax (8,122.29, +160.58, +2.02%) Taking positive cues from the US, the Dax too, short up in trade and ended the seesion with a whopping 2% gain.
The Dax too closed above the interim resistance of 8100 on a weekly basis. Like the Dow,the trading range has also shifted higher for the Dax. We can expect the Index to trade in a range of 7900-8200 going forward.
Nifty(5944.00, -55.35, -0.92%) Was down last Friday after RBI's credit policy failed to stir the market up. Nifty could open higher on positive global cues ,however 6030 -6050 will be a key supply area dfor the index.Supports stand in at 5930-5950.
Shanghai(2,227.26, +21.85, +0.99%) Is trading higher by nearly 22 points.The index can find some resistance around 2225-2230. Support comes in at 2195-2200.
Nikkei is closed in trade today.
Gold(1,476.30) Gold has moved higher in trade and can move upto 1500.Supports come in at 1425.
Brent Crude (104.84) has broken out of the trading band of last few days and closed above 103. The range has shifted higher to 103-106.
Silver(24.2050) is looking weak despite the rally in all commodities.Breach below 23.85 can take Silver down to 23.
Coppper( 3.287) rallied on Friday taking cues from better than expected jobs data from the US. We expect Copper to stay strong in coming days and likely trade between 3.15-3.35.
The Euro (1.3123) is currently trading in the range of 1.3050-1.3250.We expect the Euro to consolidate in coming days.
Dollar-Yen (99.08) has moved higher on the back of strong move in global equities and commodities. We expect 100 to be a critical reistance. Support comes in around 98.
The Pound (1.5579) is approacing an important interim reistance area of 1.56.We can expect some selling to emerge around this zone. Supprots come in at 1.5498-1.5520.
The Aussie (1.0286) is trading sideways.The strength in global commodities can take the Aussie higher to 1.037 in coming days.Short term support stands around 1.0275-1.028.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2301) has weakened and come back to the 1.200 levels. The Brazilian Real (2.0122) continues to trade relatively weak/ undecided. Dollar-Rupee (53.95) looks to test in 54.10-54.25 from where it can move lower.We expect it stay ranged between 54.20 on the upside and 53.80 on the downside.
The USA-10-Yr(-1.01%) is down sharply today.
The The Spanish and Italian 10-Yr (4.04% and 3.82% respectively) looks to stable around current levels.
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Retail Sales
...Expected -0.10 % ...Previous -0.31%
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST CA PMI
...Expected 58.30 ...Previous 61.60
...Actual 0.30 % ...Previous 0.20 %
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 7.25% ...Previous 7.50 %
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 7.00 %...Previous 7.00 %
...Actual 4.00%...Previous 4.00 %
...Actual 165.0K ...Previous 88.0 K
US Unemployment Rate
...Actual 7.10 % ...Previous 7.70 %
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