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Monday May 6, 2013 - 10:25:36 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Service data revised higher in final readings; Overall price action tepid with UK participants out on holiday

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Service data revised higher in final readings; Overall price action tepid with UK participants out on holiday
Mon, 06 May 2013 5:44 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia March Retail sales register its first decline in 3 months ahead of Tuesday's RBA rate decision
- BRIC PMI Services data seeing lowest reading since late 2011; China's Services PMI employment sub-index reading saw its first net reduction in staff numbers since Jan 2009.
- Major European Services PMI show improvement from preliminary readings that prompt an ECB rate cut

- EU Leaders starting to realize that austerity is painful and perhaps counter-productive.
- Oil prices firmer amid rising Middle East tensions after Israel confirmed it conducted airstrike in Syria

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.1%e
- (IN) India Apr HSBC-Markit Services PMI: 50.7 v 51.4 prior; (third straight month of decline and lowest reading since Oct 2011)
- (SE) Sweden Apr PMI Services: 48.6 v 49.0e
- (ES) Spain Apr Net Unemployment M/M: -46.1K v -2.0Ke
- (HU) Hungary Mar Retail Trade Y/Y: -2.8% v -1.8%e
- (EU) ECB: 1.9B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.8B prior; 124.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 110.2B prior
- (ES) Spain Apr Services PMI: 44.4 v 45.6e; lowest reading since Dec and 22nd straight contraction
- (SE) Sweden Mar Service Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.8%e
- (IT) Italy Apr PMI Services: 47.0 v 45.9e; highest since Aug 2011 but still 23rd straight contraction
- (FR) France Apr Final PMI Services: 44.1e v 44.1 prelim; bounces from 4-year lows but 9th straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany Apr Final PMI Services: 49.6 v 49.2e; 49.6 V 49.2E; first contraction in 5 months
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Final PMI Services: 47.0 v 46.6e; PMI Composite: 46.9 v 46.5e

- (TW) Taiwan Apr Foreign Exchange Reserves: $405.2B v $401.9B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Sentix Investor Confidence: -15.6 v -15.4e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.2%e

- (ZA) South Africa Q1 Unemployment Rate: 25.2% v 25.1%e

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 2.58B vs, 2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 7-month Bills
- Sold 1.27B vs. 2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.039% v -0.027% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.55x prior
- Sold 1.32B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.018% v -0.011% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.31x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 closed for holiday,
DAX -0.10% at 8,113, CAC 40 -0.2% at 3,906, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 8,515, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 16,871, SMI -0.2% at 7,923, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,609.80

- UK markets were closed for a bank holiday
- Continental bourses were off their best levels and slightly negative following Friday's rise after a strong U.S. employment. Light news flow and a bank holiday in the UK have contributed to light volume in the equity market with indices little changed. Final service PMI's and Eurozone retail sales came in very close to expectations and had almost no impact on equity prices.

- German movers: Linde AG traded up 3% after reporting better than expected operating profits, with Revenues and FY13 forecast in-line with expectations.

Speakers:
- French Fin Min Moscovici commended that the country needed investments to increase economic growth and also planned to cut public spending by 2017.
Savings to be made in State spending and local authorities and selling stakes in companies here and there could help fund investments. Govt did not intend to privatized companies but rather manage it stakes. France would be strategic in state holdings. Euro exit would mean banking, financial and social systems crumble.
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos commented at a seminar that he saw the recession slowing further this year and that its budget targets in line with EU recommendations. Additionally the April jobless data is positive Labor reform starting to produce benefits
- Italy PM Letta stated that he would hold talks with Spain PM Rajoy over social unhappiness. It added thatit was possible to boost growth without increasing debt. He aimed to have a special relationship with China and to work well with the new leadership there
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras: The worst was behind Greece, though there was still a long road ahead. He played down the possibility of social unrest as a result of continuing austerity and recession.
- German Fin Min Schaueble commented that Europe would not have high growth rates and that troubled states must use time bailout provides
- Italy Stats Agency (ISTAT) forecasted 2013 GDP -1.4% with 2014 growth at +0.7%
- Switzerland Fin Min Widmer-Schlumpf stated that the country was willing to take part in international discussions on the exchange of client information under certain conditions
- Italy market regulator CONSOB chief Vargas called for a European Financial union and noted that austerity could lead to generalized crisis. EU market supervision to stay at national levels and not be centralized. Recovery to come through economic growth. He noted that Italy opposed sovereign bond financial transaction tax
- Netherlands Govt said to be considering more measures to help housing market in which home owners might be allowed to be eligible for state guarantees on mortgages if they sold house at a loss and purchases a new one
- Israel Central Bank: Selection process for next central bank gov entering final stage with decision to be made in coming weeks (**Note: Current gov Fischer steps down in June)
- Polish Central Bank Q2 bank lending survey: Banking sector to significantly ease consumer lending in Q2. commercial banks cut consumer loan margins in Q1
- Goldman Sachs analyst commented on Poland Central Bank and xpected another 75bps in Base Rate cuts beginning in June or July period. Expected the central bank to pause again at its rate decision this week
- PBoC dep dir Guo Jianwei: China studying how individuals and small business can settle trade in CNY currency (yuan) by end of 2013. He noted that Yuan settlement for corporation has matured and the next step would be to include individuals
- India Central Bank Gov Subbarao reiterated there was little room for policy easing and that monetary policy would depend on inflation trajectory. He stressed that its large fiscal deficit must be brought down; sustainable ratio was 2.5% of GDP. He expected liquidity to be in deficit the next few months and that the RBI did not use FX intervention as a liquidity tool. He expected inflation around 6% by end of FY14 if RBI did nothing
- Vietnam Central Bank: Imported gold to ensure reserves after auctions with the imported amount equal to volume of auctioned gold from reserves. It noted that gold imports to have no impact on VND currency (dong) and national trade balance. Commercial banks needed to have total 20 tons of gold to meet central bank's Jun 30th deadline on returning gold to depositors

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk on sentiment tried to gain some traction as Asian stocks posted decent gains following Friday's upbeat US Payrolls report. Also helping sentiment was the growing expectations that RBA and PBoC would provide stimulus after more weak economic data
- Price action in session was limited with UK markets closed for a banking holiday (**Note: Japan was also closed earlier today). The final reading of the major European PMI Services did see some improvements but it was the 'scary' preliminary readings that helped to cement the recent ECB rate cut last week.
- The EUR/USD maintained a foothold above the 1.31 handle but trade was listless with the UK out on holiday. Support in the pair seen at 1.3050 and then 1.3030. Resistance pegged at 1 1.3170
- The USD/JPY stayed above the 99 handle with yen still poinsed to retest trend lows (99.82) and perhaps a stab at parity (last tedted back in April 2009)

Political/In the Papers:
- multi-national firms are rushing to relocate to the UK due to the country's corporate tax rate
- Greece finance minister thinks the worst has passed for Greece
- NYT chronicles Hollande's first year in office, focusing on his recent troubles (plunging poll numbers, sluggish growth, etc
- Japan's Asian neighbors are wary about Abenomics but for now think the benefits of improved Japanese growth outweigh the risks of capital inflows and a weaker yen

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IL) Bank of Israel Minutes of Rate Meeting
- (LX) ECB member Mersch (Luxembourg) at event
- (ES) Spain Dep Econ Min Latorre
- (FI) Finland PM Katainen press conference
- (IS)) Bank of Israel Publishes Minutes of Rate Meeting
- (RU) Russia Apr Reserve Fund: No est v $83.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $86.8B prior
- (CZ) Czech Q1 Current Account: 1.6Be v -1.4B prior
- 06:00 (NL) IMF's Lagarde visits Netherlands, Speaks at University
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Building Permits M/M: 1.0%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Mar Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 3.8% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 8.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (IT) ECB chief Draghi speaks at University Ceremony in Rome
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Consumer Confidence: 95.7e v 95.4 prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for Bids in 1-Month Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB to drain 202.5B in next 7-day Term Deposit Tender on Tuesday, May 7th around 7:00 ET (11:00 GMT) to offset govt bond purchases
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Apr Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Seasonally Adj: 58.0e v 61.6 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 64.4 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $2.75-3.00B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

 

 

 

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