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Wednesday May 8, 2013 - 10:36:59 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Session sees quiet trade despite improvement in China's trade components EU Market Update: Session sees quiet trade despite improvement in China's trade components
Wed, 08 May 2013 5:40 AM EST

- China Apr Trade Balance surplus larger than market expectations with both exports and imports better-than-expected

- China 2-year Govt bond yield at 3.10%; higher by over 10bps; largest rise in 10-weeks
After PBoC gauged demand for 3-month bills (last auction was back in Dec 2011)
- ECBs Asmussen: Reiterates the ECB is prepared to act against if necessary
- ECB said to be examining the possibility of buying bad loans or asset-backed securities - German press
- New Zealand RBNZ Gov Wheeler says: NZD overvalued and could keep rising; confirmed FX intervention to 'top off' price action
- German cabinet backed the EU plan to put banks under ECB supervision
- German new 5-year BOBL auction sees slight uptick in yield

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Gross Reserves: $50.3B v $49.8Be; Net Reserves: $45.8B v $45.9Be
- (FI) Finland Mar Preliminary Trade Balance: -225M v -75M prior
- (UK) Apr Halifax House Prices M/M: 1.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.6%e; (5th straight month of increases and highest YoY reading since Sept 2010)
- (DK) Denmark Mar Current Account (DKK): -1.3B v +2.9Be; Trade Balance (ex shipping): 4.4B v 4.9Be
- (TR) Turkey Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v +1.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 3.3%e
- (EU) ECB: 1.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.8B prior; 120.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 124.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss Apr CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.5%e
- (CH) Swiss Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr Budget Balance (SEK): -0.8B v +5.8B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Industrial Production M/M: -2.0% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -5.3% v -2.1%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -6.9 v -4.2% prior
- (NO) Norway Mar Industrial Production M/M: +1.0% v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: -8.6 v -10.7% prior
- (NO) Norway Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.7% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 4.1% prior
- (MA) Malaysia end Apr Foreign Reserves: $140.3B v $139.9B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 3rd: $533.5B v $515.2B prior

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 6-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.63% vs. $0.0M prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF442.2M 1.25% 2024 Bond; Avg Yield: 0.696% v 0.890% prior
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yeild: 4.20% v 4.25% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.60x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 1.1B in 0.125% I/L 2044 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.234% v -0.033% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.84x 2.02x prior (Mar 21st 2103)
- (DE) Germany sold 4.047B in new 0.25% Apr 2018 BOBL; Avg Yield: 0.38% v 0.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.10x v 1.88x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,561,
DAX +0.10% at 8,195, CAC-40 +0.40% at 3,937, IBEX-35 flat at 8,543, FTSE MIB flat at 17,122, SMI +0.60% at 8,023, S&P 500 Futures flat 16,20

- Equity markets in Europe are trading mixed, following the recent record highs seen for some markets. The Swiss SMI has outperformed, supported by shares of Holcim and Roche. In terms of the banking sector, shares of Standard Chartered have lagged (issued trading update), while ING has outperformed following its earnings report. Resource related firms are mixed in line with what has been seen with commodity prices.

- United Kingdom movers [CSR +3.5% (Q1 profits rose y/y), Next +2.5% (reaffirmed forecast), BAE Systems +1.5% (reaffirmed forecast); Standard Chartered -5.5% (cautious Q1 update)]
- Germany movers [Henkel +3% (Q1 profits above ests), Deutsche Telekom +2.5% (Q1 profits above ests) ; IVG -14% (Q1 loss widened), Brenntag -6% (Q1 results below ests), HannoverRe -5% (ex-dividend), Allianz -4% (ex-dividend), Lanxess -2.5% (Q1 profits below ests), Kloeckner -2% (Q1 results below ests), Fraport -1% (Q1 profits below ests)]
- France movers [Television Francaise -4.5% (swung to loss in Q1)]
- Italy movers [Pirelli +6% (reaffirmed forecast)]
- Switzerland movers [Holcim +2% (Q1 profits rose y/y)]
- Spain movers [Telefonica -1.5% (Q1 results below ests)]
- The Netherlands movers [ING +2% (Q1 results above ests); Aegon -4% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Denmark movers [Vestas Wind +6% (Q1 sales above ests)]

- German cabinet backed the EU plan to put banks under ECB supervision

- Sweden Fin Min Borg: Excessive SEK currency strength is a concern and should be considered by the central bank
- ECB's Asmussen commented that Cyprus banking sector had not yet been stabilized and that short term risks in Cyprus were high. He noted that the argument between austerity vs. growth was completely wrong Bank of Cyprus reliance on ELA "exceptionally high. Single Bank Resolution Mechanism (SSM) should have European resolution fund and have access to temporary, fiscally neutral public funding. Delay in reaching Cyprus deal made things worse and forecasted Cyprus 2013 and 2014 GDP at -13% and rebound in 2015; economic risks are tilted to the downside. He reiterated that ECB was studying options within its mandate to help small business lending; Lending would not increase without confidence in banks' balance sheets
- EU's Rehn took part in parliament exchange view with EU/IMF/ECB Troika on Cyprus and noted that the first disbursement to Cyprus was expected in coming days
- Poland Dep Fin Min Kotecki stated that he expected central bank to again cut interest rates at its meeting later today. He also noted that 2013 budget revision would not be a disaster
- IMF stated that it did not see Europe returning to growth until late this year and stressed that the region needed 'zone-wide' banking insurance fund
- Russia Deputy Fin Min Shatalov: Govt to decide on Eurobond coupon tax in next two month
- Turkey Econ Min Caglayan: Q1 growth to be lower than desired
- Romania Central bank Gov Isarescu cuts its 2013 inflation forecast to 3.2% v 3.5% prior view and trimmed 2014 inflation to 3.3% v 3.2% prev
- India Lower and Upper Houses adjourn sine die (without assigning a day for a further meeting or hearing) after opposition refused to allow any proceedings in both the Houses. The BJP forced adjournment of Parliament over alleged scam in top railway appointments, coal block allocation issue and demands for resignation of PM Singh

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were quite quiet despite the positive close for US stocks on Tuesday and encouraging Chinese trade data.
- The EUR/USD remained locked within recent hourly ranges but moved towards the upper end of 1.3130 after German cabinet backed the EU plan to put banks under ECB supervision

Political/In the Papers:
- (CN) China's central bank may be preparing to change the way it manages monetary policy by reintroducing bills as a liquidity management tool for the first time since 2011
- Dealers note that the country struggles to keep rising capital inflows at bay.
- (EU) ECB said to be examining the possibility of buying bad loans or asset-backed securities - German Press
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Reiterates the ECB is prepared to act against if necessary
-(EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Cyprus and Russia have reached a deal on renegotiation of loan terms
- (US) Treasury Sec Lew: Economy set to shift into higher gear

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PL) Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank 1Q Inflation Report
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.1%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -3.8%e v -1.8% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Industrial Sales M/M: No est v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.1% prior
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell Bills
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 3rd: No est v 1.8% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Apr CPI M/M: -0.1%e v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Deposit Rates unchanged at 1.50%
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.6% prior
- 08:15 (LX) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) in Germany
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Apr Housing Starts: 175.0Ke v 184.0K prior
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Stein speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:45 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble on tax revenues estimates
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Gross Fixed Investment: 0.0%e v 4.6% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (EU) ECB member Asmussen (Germany) speaks on inflation in Berli1
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel in Northern Germany
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $3.00-3.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (IT) Italy details BTP auction on May 13th
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5 Year Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Exports FOB: $5.0Be v $4.7B prior
- 21:30 (CN) China Apr CPI Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.1% prior
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Apr Employment Change M/M: +11.0Ke v +36.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.6%e v 5.6% prior


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