Thursday May 9, 2013 - 03:31:05 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 09-May-2013 -0329 GMT
Dow Jones (15105.10, +48.92, +0.32%) continued to trade positive and closed above 15100. We expect the index to continue the uptrend and any dip to 14900 will be a good buying opportunity. 14900 is a good downside support for the Dow.
Dax (8249.71, +67.93, +0.83% ) too closed higher yesterday and ended the day on a stable note. Like the Dow and the Nikkei, the Dax too is at fresh highs and any dip to 7900-8000 can reinforce good buying for the longer term.
Nikkei (14391.30, +105.66, +0.74%) is trading firm above yesterday's close. The market is in bull zone and therefore any dip will be a good opportunity to go long. Support comes in at 13980-14020.
Nifty (6069.30, +25.75, +0.43%) looked in consolidation mode after yesterday's stellar rally and closed the day half a percent higher. The Nifty continues to break past key resistance areas and looks likely to clock more gains if manages to conquer 6100 and close above it. The index can stay range bound between 5980-6100 in coming days.
Shanghai (2240.12, -6.16, -0.27%) is trading slightly lower in trade after the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from taht region for April has come higher than market expectation. We expect the the index to trade between 2230-2275 going forward.
With better than expected jobs data from Australia commodities can see some rally in coming days.
Gold (1471) is trading back above 1470 after finding support around 1450. With better than expected jobs data from Australia we view Gold to attempt a move to 1500 if manages to sustain above 1470. Support comes in at 1450.
Brent (104.48) is trading firm above 104. Technically the Brent can consolidate sideways and we expect it to trade around 103-106 in the next few sessions.
Silver (24.09) has now moved back above 24. A close above 24.20 can take Silver up to 24.75 on the upside. Supports come in at 23.80.
Copper (3.3385) is trading above 3.30 on a consistent basis which clearly indicates short term strength. We expect Copper to trade between 3.25-3.45 and currently the red metal is bang in the middle of the range.
The Euro (1.3163) has moved strongly above 1.315 on good macro economic data. We expect the Euro to attempt a move to 1.3250 in coming days. We expect the trading range of 1.3050-1.3250 to hold in coming days.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9345) has come down lower on expected lines. With the Euro finally breaking past 1.3150, we expect the Dollar-Swiss to trade low and target 0.93 on the downside. Resistance comes in at 0.94.
Dollar-Yen (98.83) is holding smartly in trade around 99. With the Japanese Equity markets hitting multi year high we view the Dollar-Yen to touch 100 going forward. However we cannot rule out the possibility of a few days of consolidation. Support comes in at 98.
The Euro-Yen (130.10) is finally trading above 130. If the Euro-Yen is able to maintain the 130 mark, we may see it touching 134 in coming days. Support comes in at 127.50.
The Pound (1.5538) has bounced back from the supports of 1.5480 which also happened to be the 200 day moving average. As the Euro can stay cheerful in coming days the pounds can make an attempt a move to 1.56.
The Aussie (1.0245) is back above 1.020 on better than expected jobs data from Australia. The market in the shorter time frame looked oversold and a short rally was expected. Now the Aussie can attempt a move to 1.028-1.030.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2278) is below 1.23 and can stay lowerin coming days on dollar weakness.
Dollar-Rupee (54.16) continued its range bound move and traded most part of the day between 54.05-54.20. We feel this boring trading range between 53.90-54.30 to hold for the next few days.
The dollar index (81.87) has moved below 82 and this can see the Euro maintain its strength in coming days.
The Indian-10yr (7.70, -0.05) can move lower on back of expectations that inflation has peaked for now and the RBI can further cut rates going forward.
The USA-10-Yr (1.81) is trading above 1.80 and can look to settle around 1.78 in coming days.
Italian 10 yr (3.84%) and the Sapanish 10 yr ( 4.1%) are trading flat at current levels. The yeild curves of most of the PIIGS nation look stable.
1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST Australia Labour Force
...Expected 11.50 K ...Previous -36.13K
11:00 GMT or 16:30 IST BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50%
No major data release yesterday.
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