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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK continues with string of better economic data as production exceeds expectations ahead of BOE rate decision; Spain 3-tranche bond auction results were decent but

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK continues with string of better economic data as production exceeds expectations ahead of BOE rate decision; Spain 3-tranche bond auction results were decent but not impressive
Thu, 09 May 2013 5:42 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia April Employment Report come in much stronger than expected (+50K v +11Ke); Unemployment Rate dips for first time since Nov
- New Zealand also registers a better employment report
- China April CPI comes in a touch higher than expected (Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e); PBOC official says no rate cut in near future
- South Korea surprises market with a 25bps rate cut in its 7-day Repo Rate (1st cut in 8 meetings); took into account recent moves by ECB and RBA
- Spain 3-tranche bond auction seen as decent. Sells more than indicated at lower yields but lower bid-to-cover ratios
- UK continues with string of better economic data as production exceeds expectations

***Economic Data***
- (CZ) Czech Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.0%e
- (ES) Spain Mar Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -0.6% v -5.3%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -9.8% v -9.0% prior
- (EU) ECB: 309M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.8B prior; 81.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 120.4B prior (lowest deposits since late 2011)
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization April Food Price Index: 215.5 vs 212 prior (first rise since Jan)
- (UK) Mar Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.2%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.6%e
- (UK) Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.0%e
- (IT) Bank of Italy: Mar Bad loans +21.7% y/y vs. +18.6% prior
- (GR) Greece Feb Unemployment Rate: 27.0% v 26.7% prior (revised record level)
- (ZA) South Africa Mar Gold Production Y/Y: -6.2% v -4.7% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: -3.5% v +4.0%e
- (ZA) South Africa Apr SACCI Business Confidence: 92.3 v 90.4 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2016, 2018 and 2026 bonds

- Sold 1.86B in 3.3% April 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 2.247% v 2.792% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.34x v 2.84x prior; Max Yield 2.268% v 2.810% prior
- Sold 1.55B in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 2.789% v 3.257% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.24x v 2.52x prior; Maximum Yield 2.807% v 3.286% prior
- Sold 1.16B in 5.9% Jul 2026 Bono; Avg Yield 4.336% v 5.555% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.62x v 2.9x prior; Max Yield: 4.354% v 5.569% prior
- (PL) Poland sold total PLN6.5B vs. PLN3.5-5.5B indicated range in July 2.5% 2018 bonds; Yield: 2.550%; Will not hold supplementary auction round for 2018 bonds
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.96% (record low) vs. 4.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.80x v 1.88x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF10B vs. HUF7B indicated in 2019 Floating Rat bond; Price 96.27 v 96.31 prior; bid-to-cover: 1.97x

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,578
, DAX -0.20% at 8,234, CAC-40 -1% at 3,915, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 8,541, FTSE MIB -1.2% at 17,049, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,627

- European equity markets are broadly lower, as traders assess the implications of China's hotter than expected CPI data. Today's weakness has been led by Italy's FTSE MIB, amid declines in Italy's sovereign bonds. In France, the CAC-40 has been weighed down by declines in shares of Carrefour, Peugeot, Renault and Vivendi. European banks are trading mixed. Underperformers include Commerzbank, while RBS and Lloyds have outperformed.

- UK Movers [Experian +5% (stock buyback), Old Mutual +2.5% (Q1 AUM rose y/y); Morgan Sindall -4% (warned on margins), William Morrison -2% (Q1 LFL sales declined), WS Atkins -1.4% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Kloeckner +3% (broker commentary); Metro -4.5% (ex-dividend), Wacker Chemie -2% (ex-dividend), HeidelbergCement -1% (ex-dividend), Adidas -1% (ex-dividend)]
- France movers [Peugeot -1.9% (sector weakness), Carrefour -1.8% (tracking declines in competitor Metro), Vivendi -1% (Activision's outlook)]
- Italy movers [Lottomatica +1% (Q1 profits above ests); Banca Popolare -6% (concerns related to joint stock company plan), Snam Rete -3.5% (share placement), Mediaset -1% (court ruling)]
- Spain movers [Repsol +1% (Q1 results above ests); OHL -3% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]

Speakers:
- China PBoC source noted that China near-term benchmark rate cut was impossible citing threats posed by house prices and inflation and saw no such no cut in H1 at least
(**Note: recently ECB, RBA, RBI and Bank of Korea has all cut rates)
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) commented that it was right for monetary policy to be expansive, but must raise rates quickly when situation improved. Low rates were not a permanent solution and he reiterated that ECB still able to take further action (**Note: In line with Draghi's post rate decision press conference earlier this month) but cautioned it must be aware of risks from negative real rates
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras commented that debt markets still remained closed to Greece but was optimistic it could return to markets in 2014 but it would require return to economic growth and primary surplus. He also noted that the number of civil servants was starting to fall and could exceed 15,000 target. He reiterated view that country could receive further debt relief once it achieves a primary surplus and that its banking sector recap was going well
- ECB Monthly Report was in line with ECB press conference noting that risks to Euro economy were on the downside and highlighted that weak global demand and insufficient reform could delay recovery. The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters cut 2013 and 2014 GDP outlook and lowered inflation views. High debt level was detrimental to growth
And significant uncertainty over threshold for debt doom-loop
- Cyprus Central bank Governor Demetriades commented that catastrophic scenarios for Cyprus had been averted, but 2013 prospects remained bleak and saw 2013 GDP at -8.7%. He stated that he would not resign as Central bank head and that ECB won't deny Cyprus liquidity if terms were met. Ther was yet any decision on gold sale, but Central bank would be in charge of decision
- Slovak bank Postova banka said to have filed an arbitration claim against Greece over 2012 bond swap. Postova purchased the Greek government bonds in the first half of 2010. According to Postova Greek government bonds that were forcibly restructured by Greece, which caused Postova and Istrokapital to suffer significant losses.
- Australia Treasurer Swan commented that the country's job data would remain volatile and saw signs of non-mining sector to pick up.
- Japan upper house allows DPJ official Muroi to resign, as expected
- China State Researcher Zhang Liqun commented that China inflation pressure had not eased because of large domestic money supply and QE of major developed nations. He added that China should not have expansionary policies to increase economic growth otherwise inflation would rebound
- China researcher Wang Jun noted that CPI would not rebound significantly in near term

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD was steady in the session following pick up in risk appetite and recent improvement in German data. The Spanish bond auction was initially viewed as positive but the lower bid-to-cover ratios weighed upon the enthusiasm. The 1.3130 level seen as intial support in the pair.
- The GBP/USD was aided by more positive economic data. GBP was slightly firmer by 30 pips after better headline production data; pair at 1.5580
- The JPY was mildly firmer against the major pairs but contained within recent ranges. The USD/JPY pair stayed below the 99 handle. Dealers were watching the EUR/JPY cross for clues on the overall yen price action. The cross has had difficulties staying above the 130 handle.

Political/In the Papers:
- (FR) ECB's Weidmann: France has a role in maintaining fiscal stability. Later he noted that was right for monetary policy to be expansive but must raise rates quickly when situation improved. ECB could still take further action but low rates were not a permanent solution. Lastly he stressed that must be aware of risks from negative real rates
- (IT) Italian appeals court uphold Berlusconi conviction in Mediaset tax fraud case, former Italy PM sentenced to 4 year prison term and banned from public office for 5years
- (UK) PM Cameron: Conducting a spending review which should be complete by June, low rates will no longer exist if the country ends its deficit cutting program
- Fitch upgrade Mexico 1 notch to BBB+ (1 notch upgrade); Outlook stable
- European Commission to introduce import duties of 47.6% average on China solar companies accused of dumping. Tariffs will vary by company with a 37.3% min rate to a 67.9% max rate
- EU Deposit insurance funds would be vulnerable to 'huge shocks' unless depositors received preferred treatment over other unsecured creditors. EU weighing whether depositors should be paid back ahead of other unsecured creditors in new rules
- China PBoC sells bills and drains CNY 37B via repos; Dealers note that China still effectively injects CNY 84B for week (due to maturing bills, repos)
- PBoC set Yuan at another record high; driving speculation that PBoC might again widen the daily trading band from the current 1% level

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) April Retailers report SSS
- (EU) EU's Barroso in Italy
- 06:00 (MA) Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr CPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No ets v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No ets v 0.6% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q1 Unemployment Rate: No est v 16.9% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar New Industrial Orders M/M: No est v prior
- 06:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal presents 2012 Supervision Report
- 06:30 (IT) Italy PM Letta with US Sec of State Kerry
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.8%e v -2.9% prior
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Lacker on financial stability in NY
- 08:00 (CA) Canada Mar New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 335Ke v 324K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.018Me v 3.019M prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.1%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.3% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Final Trade Balance: No est v $1.7B prelim
- 10:00 (UK) Apr NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Mar CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 82.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Wholesale Inventories M/M: +0.4%e v -0.3% prior; Wholesale Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 1.7% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to Sell 2013, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to Sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 10:45 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble in London
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.0-1.5B in bonds
- 13:00 (USD) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 13:15 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Monetary Policy in New York
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Mar Trade Balance: 274.0Be v 677.0B prior

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
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23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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