Thursday May 9, 2013 - 21:19:41 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex- Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Fiiday 10 May 2013
Global market sentiment: Risky assets drooped during the London session and fell during NY. There was no obvious news catalyst for the reversal which was most pronounced in currencies. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.4% and the S&P500 is currently down 0.4%. Copper has shed 1.0%, gold -1.4%, and Brent crude -0.4%.
Interest rates: US 10yr treasury yields traced an expanding range between 1.77% and 1.82%, rising over the past 2 hours with the USD currency. The 30yr auction went better than the 3yr and 10yr versions earlier this week , at 1bp below market yield. Australian 3yr government bond yields consolidated the post-employment bounce, ranging between 2.53% and 2.58, as did the 10yr yield between 3.11% and 3.15%.
Currencies: An unexplained surge in the USD against most currencies was the overnight highlight. The surge occurred during the NY afternoon, starting with USD/JPY and then fanning out to other pairs. USD/JPY rose gently at first, from 98.67 to 99.41, but then accelerated to 100.79 – a four-year high. EUR fell from 1.3177 to 1.3011. AUD initially drifted lower from 1.0245 to 1.0185 but then plunged to 1.0047 (11-month low) within an hour. NZD similarly fell from 0.8476 to 0.8353. AUD/NZD slipped from 1.2120 to 1.2020.
US initial jobless claims fall 4k to 323k in week ended May 4. 2010. A 5 year low for claims with no special factors at play confirms that fewer layoffs are taking place but tells us nothing about the pace of hiring.
US wholesale inventories rose 0.4% in March, reversing their 0.3% fall in February.
US mortgage delinquencies rose from 7.09% of the total stock of mortgages to 7.25% in Q1, still the second lowest default rate post crisis (peak was 10.06% in 2010), with the sub-prime market up from 20.3% to 21.2% the cause. Prime delinquencies eased from 4.35% to 4.25%. At the end of Q1, 3.55% of all housing loans were in foreclosure, a new cycle low (2.5% prime, 10.8% sub-prime), down from 4.64% in 2010.
Canadian new house prices rose 0.1% in March to be up 2.0% yr, their slowest pace of gain since mid 2011.
Bank of England monetary policy decision. On hold at 0.5%, asset purchase target unchanged at £375bn, and just a brief statement noting that the BoE inflation report will be released at the regular quarterly press conference next week.
UK industrial production rose 0.7% in March, with a solid 1.1% rise in factory output, on top of Feb’s 0.7% rise, meaning that most of Jan’s 1.9% slump in manufacturing has been reversed. Utilities posted a third straight gain in March, of 2.4% (it was bitterly cold), but oil and gas fell by 1.8%, not having posted a rise yet this year. Over the year, IP’s pace of contraction has slowed to –1.4% yr from –3.1% yr in January.
Event risk today: NZ has electronic spending, while Australia has the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement.
NZD/USD 1 day: Still looks heavy despite yesterday’s employment-led bounce. 0.8360 is being tested as we write and we favour it eventually giving way to 0.8250.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 remains intact, within that the next gyration targets 0.8250 next.
AUD/NZD 1 day: The long-awaited upward correction may have ended at 1.2170 – very shallow. We’ll give this one a day or two to find out.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The trend decline to sub-1.1960 should resume once this corrective bounce is complete. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
AUD/USD 1 day: Below 1.0050 over the next few days. Any rebound today should be capped by the 1.0100-1.0150 area.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The sideways consolidation since August 2012 is in danger of breaking down as we write. Trend support at 1.0100 has been broken, and if sustained over the next day points to 0.9900.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Should open unchanged at 2.84%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: The downward correction which started on 15 Feb could yet extend lower to the 2.70%-2.80% area. As long as that area holds though, we expect an eventual rise above 3.20% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 10 May 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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