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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Talk of possible tapering of Fed policy aids USD against major pairs; Italy's 12-month yield hits record low on weak bid-to-cover

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Talk of possible tapering of Fed policy aids USD against major pairs; Italy's 12-month yield hits record low on weak bid-to-cover
Fri, 10 May 2013 5:32 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA: cuts 2013 underlying CPI forecast; 2013 GDP forecast 2.5% (from prior 2%-3% range)
- Japan Mar Current Account surplus hits 1-year high
- The USD/JPY pair at 4-year highs and tested above 101 handle; 10-year JGB yield rise by 10bps (most in 5 years) on the back of the break of parity in USD/JPY pair
-Japan Econ Min: would continue to monitor FX; no intention of manipulating FX rates
- Japan investors bought net 309.9B in Foreign Bonds last week (**2nd week of net buys after 6 weeks of net sells)
- Italy Debt Agency Bill auction results mixed, 12-month yield does hit record low on weak bid-to-cover
- USD continued firm tone against major pairs on growing speculation that the FED might seek to tapering pace of QE


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Apr Bankruptcies Y/Y: -10.5% v -20.0% prior
- (JP) Japan Apr Eco Watchers Current Survey: 56.5 v 57.5e; Outlook Survey: 57.8 v 57.5e
- (IN) India Apr Local Car Sales: 150.8K v 180.7K prior
- (IN) India Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Current Account: 20.2B v 19.5Be; Trade Balance: 18.8B v 17.5Be; Imports M/M: +0.8% v +1.5%e; Exports M/M: +0.5% v +0.5%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Industrial Production M/M: +2.9% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.3 v -5.2% prior
- (RO) Romania Mar Trade Balance: -567.6M v -207.7M prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr CPI M/M: -0.2% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.1%e
- (DK) Denmark Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Preliminary Trade Balance: 753.4M v 550.0Me
- (CZ) Czech Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Apr CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (EU) ECB: 997M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 309M prior; 86.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 81.1B prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -9.5% v -6.9%e; Industrial Production wda Y/Y: -5.2% v -3.8%e
- (NO) Norway Apr CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.5%e
- (NO) Norway Apr CPI Underlying M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.0%e
- (NO) Norway Apr Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: 0.2% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: -1.6% v -3.4% prior
- (CN) China Apr New Yuan Loans (CNY): 792.9B v 755.0Be
- (CN) China Apr M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 16.1% v 15.5%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 11.9% v 11.0%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.8% v 12.0%e
- (UK) Mar Visible Trade Balance: -9.1B v -9.0Be; Total Trade Balance: -3.1B v -3.1Be; Trade Balance Non EU: - 3.5Bv -4.0Be

- (UK) Mar Construction Output M/M: 12.1% v 15.0%e; Y/Y: -7.4% v -6.6%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7%e
- (GR) Greece Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.7% v -4.3% prior
- (GR) Greece Apr Consumer Price Index Y/Y: -0.6 v -0.2% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2020, 2022, 2032 and 2042 bonds
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 10.0B vs. 10.0B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 3.0B vs. 3.0B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.393% v 0.243% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.09x v 1.9x prior
- Sold 7.0B vs. 7.0B indicated in 12-month Bills, Avg Yield 0.703% (record low) v 0.922% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.16x v 1.64x prior, (lowest since Feb 2012)

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,613,
DAX +0.50% at 8,303, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,947, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 8,597, FTSE MIB +1.2% at 17,298, SMI +0.60% at 8,144, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,625

- Equity markets in Europe opened the session higher, supported by earnings reports from ArcelorMittal, BT and Generali. Traders have also focused on the rise in core sovereign bond yields, China data and the weakness in the Japanese yen. Italy's FTSE MIB has outperformed ahead of earnings out of UniCredit, which are due later today. Equity markets are currently off of the best levels for the session, as the DAX pulled back after hitting a fresh record high for the 6th straight session. European banks are trading mixed. French banks have underperformed, while UK and Italian banks have outperformed. Resource related companies are trading mixed, amid the declines being seen for commodity prices. Later today, Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to make comments at a Chicago Fed Conference.

- UK movers [Ocado +13% (confirmed talks with William Morrison), BT +8.5% (Q1 results above ests, stock buyback), Shire +4% (favorable patent ruling), Tui Travel +1.5% (Q1 loss narrowed, raised dividend), Ferrexpo +1.3% (Q1 pellet production rose); Centamin -14% (litigation update), IAG -1% (Q1 loss widened)]
- Germany movers [Salzgitter +5% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Generali +1.5% (Q1 profits above ests), UniCredit +1% (Reports Q1 results later today)]
- France movers [Gemalto -4.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [ABB -1.5% (CEO to resign)]
- The Netherlands movers [ArcelorMittal +5.5% (Q1 EBITDA above ests)]

Speakers:
- IMF's Shinohara stated that current JPY currency (yen) rate was consistent with Govt policy package and other factors .
he added that volatility in FX and JGB markets should be tolerated following the central bank's bold easing. Japan fiscal stimulus was risky without credible fiscal discipline plans which could spark BOJ financing Govt deficit spending. Some confusion in JGB market could not be avoided as BOJ embarks on its bold easing but expected JGB market to adjust to new policy over time
- Czech Central Bank Minutes noted that the Board agreed downside risks to inflation outlook had accumulated while no upside risks were apparent. It added that repeated long term undershooting of 2% inflation target should not be tolerated. Probability of need to ease via FX intervention had risen in light of new data. Weaker-than-forecasted CZK currency was further easing of monetary conditions but little done little to increase exports
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) President Chakrabarti commented that its outlook for emerging Europe was revised down significantly
- Sweden Fin Min Borg for the third straight day commented that could not ignore excessive movements in SEK currency movements and that SEK could potentially becoming a problem but not dramatically off fair value at this time
- Hungary Econ Min Varga stated that the Govt might raise the Financial Transaction Tax as it had brought in less revenue than expected. He also suggested freezing HUF92.9B in budget for 2013 and 2014 but would lift spending freeze if growth allowed
- Philippines Central Bank's Amador stated that inflation continued to be within target with expectations remaining well anchored
- Japan senior MoF Official: Reiterates fx moves are determined by market forces

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD continued its firm tone against major pairs aided on growing speculation that the FED was hinting of a QE tapering
- USD/JPY rally began with a better than expected US weekly jobless claims and hawkish comments from Fed's Plosser in the US morning and then accelerated its gains around 1pmET on further rumors that WSJ's Hilsenrath would hint of a QE tapering at the Fed. extended its gains above 101 after reports Japanese investors have continued to buy foreign bonds last week with a second week of net purchases after 6 weeks of net sells.
- Dealers watching key hourly support at 1.2970 with Euro sell stops said to be lurking below. That level was tested (and held) back on April 24-25th period.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Global liquidity levels need to be reduced.
- (EU) Slovenia PM Bratusek: Govt to use anti-crisis taxation measures under govt stability package to avoid a bailout
- (US) US House of Representatives received enough votes to pass debt prioritization legislation. The bill would allow the government to repay bondholders and social security recipients after the debt limit is hit.
-(JP) Japan investors bought net 309.9B in Foreign Bonds last week (***first time net buyers in 7-weeks); Japan investors bought net 28.0B in Foreign Stocks last week vs sold net 157.7B prior week
-USD/JPY: During Thursday's US session, USD/JPY tested above 100 for the first time since April 2009. In Asia, the pair extended gains above 101, highest since Apr 2009
-(JP) 10-yr JGB yield hits highest level since Feb
-(NZ) New Zealand Fin Min English: Not in currency war, has limited ability to affect FX; Abenomics may inflate asset prices for a while but skeptical about long-term impact; Cannot influence Japan and will not react to its policies.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) G-8 Finance Ministers, Central Bank Chiefs meeting in U.K.
- (PE) Peru Mar Trade Balance: -$110Me v -$88M prior
- (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) details T-bill auction on May 14
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency gives target volume for TC auction on May 14
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Trade Balance: No est v -680M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Construction Works Index: No est v 48.1 prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment (Note: 2.0Be)
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to Sell Bonds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (ES) Bank of Spain Dep Gov Restoy
- 06:30 (AT) OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Apr 26th
- 08:25 (US) Fed's Evans Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Net Change in Employment: +15.0Ke v -54.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.2%e v 7.2% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v -54K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -0.4K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.6% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.1%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.3%e v -1.2% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: No est v -0.9% prior
- 09:15 (ES) Bank of Spain Chief Economist in NY
- 09:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 12:00 (US) WASDE Corp Report
- 14:00 (US) Fed's George in WY
- 14:00 (US) Apr Monthly Budget Statement: $82.0Be v -$ prior

Weekend
- (PH) Philippines elections

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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