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Fed lays groundwork for a QE exit. Busy calendar week
|Fed lays groundwork for a QE exit. Busy calendar week|
13 May 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: No Major Data. Europe: CH- Retail Sales. North America: US- Retail Sales, Business Inventories
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CH- Retail Sales, US- Retail Sales
- The Thursday afternoon rumor that an article by Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ concerning a start to a Fed exit from QE was going to be released proved to have been an accurate leak. When the Fed is going to act has been left vague. The purpose of the story appears to have been to start well in advance to prepare the markets for an exit, so that they are desensitized to the actual announcement whenever it comes.
- You can expect an end to QE to first adversely impact bond prices, and then weigh on equities, and give the USD a boost. Price moves in all these markets will appear virtually instantaneously when they hit, but the logic at least will be sequential.
- We were warned about the story on Thursday but the markets will get their first full opportunity to react early Monday in Asia.
- One key development recently has been the persistent improvement in U.S. data, although monthly employment figures have tended to lag. On Monday of this week, key retail sales data will be released. Tuesday sees the closely followed German ZEW Survey, which often provides an inkling on how the IFO Survey will show in about a week's time. Key data on Wednesday will be U.K. employment data and EZ GDP readings. The U.S. will see several releases with Industrial Production data likely the most significant. Thursday sees EZ and U.S. CPI data and U.S. Housing Starts. Weekly Jobless Claims are always closely followed. Friday caps off a busy week with Canadian CPI data and the University of Michigan Survey.
||JGB 0.66% +7bp
||Bund 1.30% +4bp
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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