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Monday May 13, 2013 - 09:33:11 GMT
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Fed preparing markets for QE exit. Busy calendar week
|Fed preparing markets for QE exit. Busy calendar week|
13 May 2013 10:00 gmt
CALENDAR- North America: US- Retail Sales, Business Inventories
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Retail Sales
- When the Fed is going to act has been left vague, but clearly it is setting the stage for an exit from Quantitative Ease. The purpose of the late Friday WSJ article story appears to have been to start well in advance desensitized to the actual announcement whenever it comes.
- An end to QE would adversely impact bond prices, then weigh on equities, and then give the USD a boost. Price moves in all these markets will appear virtually instantaneously when they hit, but the logic at least will be sequential.
- Swiss March retail sales were a considerably weaker than expected -0.9% yy.
- The G8 apparently did not put much pressure on Japan to halt its efforts to stimulate economic growth vs. QE and a weaker currency.
- One key development recently has been the persistent improvement in U.S. data, although monthly employment figures have tended to lag.
- Today sees the release of key U.S.retail sales data.
- Tuesday sees the closely followed German ZEW Survey, which often provides an inkling on how the IFO Survey will show in about a week's time. Key data on Wednesday will be U.K. employment data and EZ GDP readings. The U.S. will see several releases with Industrial Production data likely the most significant. Thursday sees EZ and U.S. CPI data and U.S. Housing Starts. Weekly Jobless Claims are always closely followed. Friday caps off a busy week with Canadian CPI data and the University of Michigan Survey.
||JGB 0.77% +11bp
||Bund 1.37% +7bp
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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