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Monday May 13, 2013 - 10:23:38 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Quiet start to trading week; Italy bond auction seen as 'ok' EU Market Update: Quiet start to trading week; Italy bond auction seen as 'ok'
Mon, 13 May 2013 5:37 AM EST

- US policymakers have "mapped out" stimulus exit strategy with emphasis on managing market expectations
- G-7 meeting continues to turn a blind eye to the impact of Abenomics on the currency markets
- China's investment slows as production trails estimates
- New rules taking effect May 13th seems to have China move closer to making the yuan convertible under the capital account.
- Italy bond auctions mixed with Treasury selling upper end of indicated range at lower borrowing costs but softer bid-to-cover ratio

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Apr CPI Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.7%e
- (CN) China Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 9.3% v 9.4%e; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.5%e
- (CN) China Apr Fixed Urban Assets: Y/Y: 20.6% v 21.0%e
- (CN) China Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.8% v 12.8%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.5% v 12.6%e

- (FR) Bank of France Apr Business Sentiment: 94 v 92e
- (ES) Spain Mar House transactions Y/Y: -12.6% v +17.3% prior
- (TR) Turkey Mar Current Account: -$5.4B v -$5.9Be
- (EU) ECB: 1.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 997M prior; 95.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 86.5B prior
- (IN) India Apr Trade Balance: -$17.8B v -$10.3B prior; Imports Y/Y: +10.9% v -2.9% prior; Exports Y/Y: 1.6% v 7.0% prior
- (CH) Swiss Mar Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.9 v 2.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B in 10-month Bills; Yield: 1.55%
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.0B vs. 3.25-5.0B indicated rangein 2016 and 2026 BTP bonds
- Sold 3.5B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2.25% May 2016 BTP; Avg Yield 1.92% v 2.29% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.34x v 1.4x prior
- Sold 1.5B vs. 0.75-1.50B in 4.50% Mar 2026 BTP; Avg Yield 4.07% v 4.55% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.49x v 1.59x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 3.0B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in Nov 2018 CCTEUs; Avg Yield: 2.44% v 3.03% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.35x v 1.84x prior
- (DE) Germany sold 3.82Bin 6-month BuBills; Avg Yield: +0.0013% v -0.0002% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x v 1.9x prior


FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,613
, DAX +0.50% at 8,303, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,947, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 8,597, FTSE MIB +1.2% at 17,298, SMI +0.60% at 8,144, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,625

- ECB's Visco (Italy) commented that ECB could cut Deposit Rate into negative territory if economy needed further help and personally believe that such a move would be effective. He did add that such a move could have unintended consequences but central bank knows how to work on that
- German Fin Min Schaeuble: Slovenia needs painful reforms but can manage without an international bailout
- EU's Rehn commented that he saw broad agreement on growth and jobs at G7 meeting and reiterates that credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans were needed. He also reiterates that speculation about 'currency wars' was unfounded
- IMF senior official comments on European fiscal adjustment: France still has work to do while Germany and Italy have done bulk of necessary work
- Poland Central Bank member Glapinski: June rate cut is possible
- Germany's IW Institute chief Heuther: Germany's retirement age should be raised to 69 from 67. He noted that each year of extended retirement would increase the national pool by 1M people
- Spain banks said to book one time provision of 10B to comply with new BoS refinancing capital regulations
- Japan PM Abe commented in Parliament that govt was closely monitoring currency impact on oil and other prices but the recent FX trend was a positive for domestic economy
- Thailand Central Bank Gov Prasarn commented that no one pressured central bank on key rate during meeting with Govt officials with no discussions of any forex measures. Central Bank wanted to assess Q1 GDP before deciding adjusting benchmark rate
- Thailand Fin Min Kittiratt commented that the THB currency (Baht) measures should be considered carefully; lowering interest rates is one option. He added that Govt, Central bank and private sector all agreed that Baht was too strong and volatile and that currency gains might hurt exports. Measures to curb Baht volatility were not discussed at meeting with central bank today

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD maintained a firm, steady tone into the new trading week with gains last week attributed to perhaps the Fed might be planning a strategy to taper its QE. However, other dealers noted talk that the stronger USD might be relates to a change in policy from China, with FX regulator SAFE's proposals to reduce speculative flows into the CNY currency. Dealers noted that this could potentially have a knock-on effect on Chinese diversification flows and in turn mean less demand for developed market bonds. This would also support the rise in yields seen in recent sessions. The CHF, JPY, AUD have been the biggest victims of USD strength in recent days
- The USD/JPY tested 102.15 during Asia earlier today after the weekend G7 did not criticize Japan's recent bold easing steps (similar to G20's recent not in Japan's step to address deflation

Political/In the Papers:
- German opposition to ECB buys of ABS: In the German press over the weekend, German Fin Min Schaeuble said he is opposed to any measure for the ECB to buy asset-backed securities, as it would amount to "covert state financing". The report also noted that other German press sources have suggested a majority of ECB Governing Council members seemed to be in favor of the central bank buying ABS at the central bank's meeting last week.
- G-7 comments: Japan gets the green light for its massive easing policy
Japan Fin Min Aso said there were no G7 complaints about BOJ monetary policy or weakening of the Yen. While France Fin Min Moscovici said the new consensus at G7 is that balance should be tilted toward growth rather than austerity. But the meeting was not totally positive. Germany Fin Min Schaeuble warned that the low interest rate environment is creating more and more concerns and Canada Fin Min Flaherty reported that there were some expressions of concern about some exchange rates at the G7 meeting and that there are differences among G7 on fiscal consolidation.
- Fed has planned an exit strategy: According to the WSJ's Hilsenrath the Fed is said to have "mapped out" stimulus exit strategy with emphasis on managing market expectations, but the timing of the exit is still uncertain. The strategy for the wind down of its $85B per month QE program will involve the incremental tapering (and potentially halting) of the bond purchases as the committee's confidence about the jobs market grows.
-(EU) Cyprus Finance ministry issues decree to extend capital controls for 7 more days
- (GR) various hedge funds have started to invest in Greece's banking sector - FT
-(DE) German IG Metall union: Continues to threaten to vote for a major strike action if it cannot reach an agreement with management in a wage dispute; The union has called for additional strikes in Berlin for May 13th.
-(IT) Bank of Italy Gov Visco believes that the ECB's recent rate cut will have positive effects - US financial press
- (IT) Guglielmo Epifani elected as the new leader of Italy's Democratic Party (PD) after Bersani stepped away following inconclusive February elections - press
-(IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: Italy targets exit from EU 'excessive deficit procedure' this year; Working on reforms for property taxes and employment guarantees within the given EU budgetary limits; Italy budget adheres to the agreed upon limits for 2013 and 2014.
-(UK) There is speculation that the BoE could raise its growth forecast in upcoming inflation report - London Telegraph
- Libor could be reformed to include a dual-rate system - London Telegraph

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU's Barnier speaks at Committee of the Regions in Brussels
- (HU) Hungary PM Orban with Finland PM Katainen
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (ES) Spain PM Rajoy meets Portugal PM Coelho
- 08:30 (US) Apr Advance Retail Sales -0.3%e v -0.4% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: -0.2%e v -0.4% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.3%e v -0.1% prior
- 08:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin on Sustainability
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 8.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB to drain in next 7-day Term Deposit Tender on Tuesday, May 14th around 7:00 ET (11:00 GMT) to offset govt bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) Mar Business Inventories M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 11:00 (EU) Euro-Area Finance Ministers meet in Brussels
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $53B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills



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