Tuesday May 14, 2013 - 03:50:55 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 14-May-2013 -0346 GMT
The Equity markets after having seen such huge run up may go in to a phase of consolidation in the next few days. Thus we expect the markets to stay ranged and a correction may not be ruled out.
Dow Jones (15091.70, -26.81, -0.18%) after having seen a relentless rally, chose to spend the day in consolidation. We expect a few days of quiet trading action in the Dow and a small dip to 14800 may be expected.
Dax (8279.29, +0.70, +0.01%) was marinally up in trade yesterday. The Dax too like the Dow consolidated most part of yesterday and may continue to stay ranged in coming days.We view a sideways move raned between 8100-8300 can be a likely scenario going forward.
Nikkei (14804.00, +21.81, +0.15%) is flat in trade and is currently trading 20 odd points higher. Although we feel the Nikei can move up, with supports much lower at 14200, we advise a bit of caution.
Shanghai (2225.82, -15.99, -0.71%) is down close to 0.7% in trade today. The Shanghai Composite is trading close to a shorter term support around 2225. If this level holds we can see the index trade back in the range of 2225-2250 otherwise we may see the index slip to 2190.
Nifty (5980.45, -126.80, -2.08%) plunged around 2% in trade yesterday due to profit taking after the recent rally. There is an intermediate support around 5875-5910 which may get tested.
Most of the global commodities are yet to establish a decisive trend except Copper. Till then we can expect the commodity universe to trade choppy.
Gold (1,441.20) has seen a small bounce back from the supports around 1425. With the overall trend still down in Gold, we expect it to trade between 1410-1460, witha downward bias.
Brent (102.95) is trading below 103. We may see Brent dip to 101 where it may see some buying come back. So a move between 101-103 should likely hold.
Silver (23.72) has broken below 23.80 on weakness in global commodities. Silver is expected to trade lower and target 23. Resistances come in at 24.
Copper (3.3415) is trading within the range of 3.25-3.45 for some time now and we expect this range top hold going forward.
The Euro (1.3014) after having broken below the 200 day moving average around 1.299 has bounced back and is currently holding above it. Now the Euro may see a move to 1.3050. Failure to breach past this area may push it down to 1.29.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9530) has retreated a bit in trade after the recent rally. As the Euro (1.3010) may see a few days of upmove, the Dollar-Swiss is likely to stay soft in a range between 0.9490-09570.
Dollar-Yen (101.57) is holding above 101 in trade. We expect the mood of the USD-JPY to stay upbeat. Supports can come in at 100 and upside targets have opened up to 103. However if Equity markets see some retracement going forward we may see the Yen strengthen to 100.
The Euro-Yen (132.18) like the Dollar-Yen may also target 134 in medium term with support around 130. However it too may see a dip if Equity markets correct a bit in the shorter term.
The Pound (1.5316) has moved lower and may see weakness going forward. However if the Euro sees a move to 1.3050,then the Pound might see a small upmove in the Pound to 1.54. But a breach below 1.53 can take it down to 1.52.
The Aussie (0.9976) is trading below 1.00. The Aussie has turned bearish and any up move will be sold into. A trading band between 0.995-1.005 with chances of a move to 0.995 looks more likely.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2388) is likely to trade between 1.2375-1.24 in coming days.
Dollar-Rupee (54.73) has closed lower yesterday after making a high of 55.00. We expect to see the Dollar-Rupee trade between 54.50-54.90. With the Euro having found support around 1.299 we have to see what the Euro does form here. If the Euro is able to move above 1.3050 we may see the Dollar-Rupee move to 54.50, otherwise a move to 55.00 cannot be ruled out.
The Indian-10yr (7.59%) is trading flat today.
The USA-10-Yr (1.91, -0.72%) is lower today after having rallied most of last week.
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 0.51%
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected -2.20 % ...Previous-2.65% -
GMT or 5:30 IST IN WPI
...Previous 5.96 %
US Retail Sales
...Actual 0.00 % ...Previous -0.57 %
Ind Trade Bal
...Actual-17.79$Bln ...Previous -14.92 $Bln
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