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Tuesday May 14, 2013 - 10:33:11 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European Market takes heart that Spain 10-year syndicated order book surges to over 14B and offsets weaker-than-expected German ZEW survey EU Market Update: European Market takes heart that Spain 10-year syndicated order book surges to over 14B and offsets weaker-than-expected German ZEW survey
Tue, 14 May 2013 5:52 AM EST

- No surprises at Eurogroup with members approving Greece next tranche of 4.2B but noted the following 3.3B tranche would be subject to conditions; reassured Italy will follow up reforms effort; commitment to work as quickly as possible on a bank union
- French Fin Min: bank union did not require a treaty change and debate must not slow progress
- UK PM Cameron said to put forward a Tory backbenchers bill to make a 2017 EU referendum legally binding
- Australia released its FY12/13 and FY13/14 Federal Budget update which forecasted larger than expected deficits. It pledged to return to balanced budget by 2015-16 period
- Germany May ZEW Survey misses for the second straight month but officials still see good outlook for the domestic engine
- Spain opens 10-year bond syndicate with order booking surging to over 14B

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v +0.3% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Final Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e

- (DE) Germany Apr Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (FI) Finland Apr CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.6%e
- (JP) Japan Apr Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -24.1%% v -21.5% prior
- (IN) India Apr Monthly Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 4.9% v 5.5%e
- (FR) France Mar Current Account: -2.9B v -4.9B prior
- (HU) Hungary Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e
- (ES) Spain Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e

- (ES) Spain Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (ES) Spain Apr CPI Core M/M: 0.8% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e
- (EU) ECB: 1.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.2B prior; 101.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 95.3B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.3% v -4.8% prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr CPI Headline Rate M/M: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.2%e; CPI Level: 314.03 v 314.88e
- (SE) Sweden Apr CPI Underlying (CPIF) M/M: -0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.8%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Final CPI (NIC Incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.0 v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%
- (IT) Italy Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (PL) Poland Q1 Preliminary GDP: Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.7%e
- (ES) Spain Banks April ECB Net Borrowings: 257.2B v 260B m/m (8th straight decline)
- (IT) Bank of Italy Releases March Public Finance Supplement: General Government Debt: 2.035T (record high) v 2.018T prior
- (UK) Mar Mortgage Approvals at 43.0K, +14.8% m/m - Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Industrial Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -2.0%e
- (DE) Germany May ZEW Economic Sentiment: 36.4 v 40.0e; Current Situation: 8.9 v 9.8e

- (EU) Euro Zone May ZEW Economic Sentiment: 27.6 v 24.9 prior

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 1.5B vs. 2.5B indicated Jan. 1.250% 2018 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 0.611% (record low) v 0.727% prior
- (DK) Denmark sold DKK5.49 in 1.5% 2023 bonds; Yield: 1.47% v 1.35% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.04B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 6 Month and 12 Month Bills
- Sold 1.01B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.492% v 0.530% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.7x v 3.77xprior; Max Yield: 0.500% v 0.572% prior; Tail: 0.8bps v 4.2bps prior
- Sold 3.03B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.994% (lowest yield since April 2010) v 1.235% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x v 2.0x prior; Max Yield 1.015% v 1.274% prior; Tail: 2.1bps v 3.9bps prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield: 4.02% v 4.05% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.75x v 1.65x prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.3B in 2023, 2031 and 2048 bonds
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B in 2017 Bonds; Yield 1.39%
- (EU) ECB allotted 103.8B vs. 110Be in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 1.959B vs. 2.1B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 404M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield -0.001% v -0.001% prior; Bid-to-cover: 7.86x v 5.01x prior
- Sold 1.55B in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.056% v 0.0800% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.08 x v 2.45x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF40B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.24% v 4.26% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.71x v 2.1x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 4.75B in 1.25% 2018 Gilts; Avg Yield: 0.967% v 1.277% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.78x v 1.83x prior; Tail: bps v 0.2bps prior


FTSE 100 -0.20% at 6,619
, DAX -0.50% at 8,238, CAC-40 -0.60% at 3,922, IBEX-35 -0.70% at 8,396, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 17,085, SMI -0.20% at 8,132, S&P 500 Futures -0.25% at 1,627

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly lower, as Germany's ZEW data disappointed. Spain's IBEX-35 has been the underperformer, amid the rise in Spain's sovereign bond yields. European banks are mostly lower, led by declines in shares of Commerzbank. Additionally, the decline in copper prices has weighed on resource-related companies.

- UK movers [Severn Trent +14% (takeover talks), Icap +6% (FY results), Babcock International +3% (FY profits and sales rose y/y), Balfour Beatty +2% (reaffirmed forecast); Lonmin -6% (labor strike), Betfair -6% (ended takeover talks with CVC), Hochschild Mining -2% (cut exploration budget), Tui Travel -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Deutsche Post +3.5% (Q1 net profit above ests, reaffirmed forecast); Aurubis -5% (Q1 profits below ests), - Puma -2.5% (cut FY forecast), Commerzbank -2% (announced subscription price for capital raise)]
- France movers [EADS +1.5% (Q1 results above est), Lagardere +1% (Q1 sales rose y/y) ;GDF Suez -2.5% (share placement)]
- Belgium movers [Solvay -1.7% (Q1 sales below ests)]

- Fed's Plosser (hawk, non-voter) reiterated from his comments from Stockholm that he would be in favor of reducing QE and added that the Fed should taper QE as soon as June 18-19th meeting.
He noted that slowing inflation was not a concern for policy and saw level as moderate in near-term. Fiscal uncertainty was inhibiting business investment. He also reiterated forecasts 2013 and 2014 GDP at 3% with unemployment rate at 7% by 2013 end and at 6.5% by the end of 2014
- ECB Asmussen (Germany) commented that he sought Single Europe Resolution Agency and Fund and hoped it would be ready by mid-2014 and start in parallel with single supervisor. He added that it needed a thorough asset quality review of banks to be supervised, He wanted clear depositor preference with Bail-in rules that would begin in 2015 with depositors under 100,000 protected, Lastly he hoped Ireland was successful in completing direct bank recap rules by June
- (AU) Australia released its FY12/13 and FY13/14 Federal Budget update which forecasted larger than expected deficits. It pledged to return to balanced budget by 2015-16 period. Australia now saw its 2012-13 budget at -A$19.4B v A$1.1B surplus prev in Oct and its 2013-14 budget at -A$18B v A$2.2B surplus prev in Oct
- The EU-27 Finance Ministers met in Brussels which saw the usual plethora of commentary:
- Eurogroup Dijsselbloem: Saw progress in Austria stance on savings tax
- France Fin Min Moscovici: Must advance on all fronts regarding Banking Union and could not adopt EU rules for political debates in some member States
- Chancellor Osborne stated that had opportunity for Europe to address and fight tax evasion and needed to get tax accord to stem evasion
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos: There is a consensus to move fast on banking union
- Austria Fin Min Fekter: All member States can agree to EU Commission mandate on saving tax negotiations
- Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden: Sees possibility of an agreement on savings tax negotiating mandate
- Sweden Fin Min Borg: Europe recovery requires somewhat of a fiscal push
- German ZEW Economists stated that sentiment indicator remained at last month's level due to still poor economic situation in Euro zone. It did note that conditions for Germany's economy remained very good with outlook directed towards moderate growth
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Wickman-Parak commented that there was no need to replace inflation targeting but sees reasons to modify method. Central banks should prevent imbalances buildup and have more flexible framework
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Dep Gov Qvigstad: Interest rates are low as inflation is below target
- Poland Central Bank's Chojna-Duch commented that she saw room for further interest rate cut, but space for easing remained limited. The Central bank would consider cutting rates in June
- India Economic Affairs Sec Mayaram commented that inflation momentum had slowed considerably and food prices to come down further and CPI to soften. He added that was certain that RBI would consider inflation numbers when formulating policy

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD hovered on both sides of the 1.30 handle in the session. It initially dipped to test 1.2985 after weaker-than-expected German ZEW survey but quickly recovered after Spain opened its 10- bond syndicate with orders surging to over 14B right away. Reports that Spain might sell between 3.0-4.0B via this syndicate but rumors surfaced that it might sell up to 7.0B. Also helping the Euro off session lows was that dealers noted that ZEW and the majority of its respondents did not see any more ECB rate cuts over the next six months and were upbeat on the Germany economy. The range for the time being
- AUD currency testes 0.9930 for fresh 11-month lows following Federal Budget release
- SEK currency broadly weaker following CPI inflation data with the EUR/SEK cross moving 700 pips to test above 8.64 handle

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) EU's Regling: Seeing healthy demand for ESM and EFSF bonds
-(EU) EU's Rehn: Expecting to reach a recapitalization agreement by June; European Commission is finalizing legal analysis of the banking union; Too soon to say if Greece will need more measures in 2015/2016 and there is upside potential for Greece growth forecast for 2015/2016.
- (EU) EU Commission said to prefer protection of depositors over creditors in construction of new bank resolution mechanism - German press
- (EU) EU Trade Chief De Gucht will reportedly seek the backing of EU Commission members to begin a China trade probe - financial press; Probe would investigate allegations of unfair practices by Huawei and ZTE. Reports suggest he has not decided whether or not to launch a probe yet.
- (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici: Legal questions must not slow banking union
- (GR) Eurogroup draft statement confirms support for next tranche of 7.5B in assistance to Greece - press
- (CY) ESM confirmed the disbursement of the first 2B aid tranche to Cyprus
-(IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Believes Ireland would be eligible for ECB's OMT bond buying scheme with one more debt sale; Haven't decided on whether to apply for ECB's OMT yet
- (UK) Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey sees Q2 GDP growth strengthening to 0.3% - London Telegraph; A survey from Lloyds showed the strongest growth in business activity in about 8 months.
- (US) San Francisco Fed issues labor study; finds the labor participation rate could remain low for many years
- (CN) China state researcher Zhu Baoliang: China cannot cut its interest rates because of abundant global liquidity - Chinese press
Avg yield: 1.775% v 1.492% prior; Bid to cover: 3.57x v 3.64x prio
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Spike in long-term interest rates could affect JGB interest payments; Govt will work to lower JGB volatility through policies and communicating with market.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Sec of State Kerry, Russian, Nordic Ministers meet in Kiruna
- (PT) Bank of Portugal annual report
- (ES) Bank of Spain Roldan
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Mar Leading Indicator: No est v 100.5 prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 and 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP); To drain 201.0B
- 07:00 (SI) Slovenia Debt Agency to sell 3-month and 6-month bills
- 07:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Fin Min Schaeuble
- 07:00 (IS) Israel Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 1.3% prior
- 07:30 (US) Apr NFIB Small Business Optimism: 90.3e v 89.5 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr M3 Money Supply M/M: -0.1%e v +1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Import Price Index M/M: -0.5%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -3.1%e v -2.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) World Bank Kim in Washington DC
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Apr Teranet National Bank House Price Index M/M: No est v 2.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior; HPI: No est v 153.31 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 11:00 (US) New York Fed Quarterly Household Debt Report
- 11:00 (US) New York Fed releases Quarterly Household Debt Report
- 11:00 (UA) Ukraine to Sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks at Election-Year 'Media Night' of Her CDU Party
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (DE) ECB member Asmussen (Germany) in Berlin
- 12:00 (ES) Bank of Spain Regulation Chief Roldan
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories




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