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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Q1 European GDP data disappoints; UK quarterly inflation report a bit more upbeat but still cautious

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Q1 European GDP data disappoints; UK quarterly inflation report a bit more upbeat but still cautious
Wed, 15 May 2013 5:50 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Nikkei225 surged to fresh multi-year highs, climbing above the 15,000-level for the first time since Jan 2008 on the back of a weak JPY currency
- JGBs reversed sharp rise after BoJ announced it would inject 2.8T in market operation on Friday (3x ordinary amount)
-ECB's Asmussen: SMEs must get better access to bank loans; ECB considering ways to achieve this
- Bank of France official seeks to help banks securitize loans for use as ECB collateral via a simple special purpose vehicle; process already possible but complex
- Fitch upgrades Greece to B- from CCC; Outlook stable; clear progress eliminating twin deficits
- Italy mandates banks for 30y syndicated bond
- Major European Q1 preliminary GDP data disappoints (includes France, Germany and Euro Zone) Italy's recession now it's longest since quarterly records began in 1970 with its 7th straight quarterly contraction
- UK Apr jobless claims continues the recent string of better English data but average regular earnings at the lowest growth rate since records began in 2001
- UK Inflation Report: Slightly raised growth forecast and saw inflation falling back to target from 1Q 2015, vs. prior view of 3Q 2015


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Apr Consumer Confidence: 44.5 v 45.5e
- (SG) Singapore Mar Retail Sales M/M: -5.4% v -2.4%e; Y/Y: -7.4% v -2.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto 1.2% v Y/Y: 1.9%e
- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e
- (PH) Philippines Mar Overseas Workers Remittances: $1.8B v $1.8Be; Y/Y: 3.0% v 6.9%e
- (DE) Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v +0.2%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.2%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.7% v -0.9% prelim
- (FI) Finland Mar Finland GDP Indicator WD: -0.4% v -2.8% prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr PES Unemployment Rate: 4.3% v 4.4%e
- (FR) France Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 125.50 v 125.70e
- (FR) France Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Final Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.7% prelim
- (HU) Hungary Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.8% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.3%e

- (AT) Austria Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v +0.4% prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Wholesale Prices M/M: -0.2% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.4% prior
- (FI) Finland Mar Current Account: -500M v -160M prior
- (RO) Romania Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.0%e
- (TR) Turkey Feb Unemployment Rate: 10.5% v 10.8%e
- (CH) Swiss Apr Producer & Import Prices M/M: +0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.3%e
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.1% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Trade Balance: 4.9B v 3.8B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Q1 Industry Capacity: 84.6% v 84.6% prior
- (IT) Italy Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -2.2%e; (7th straight quarterly contraction)
- (CZ) Czech Mar Current Account (CZK): -35.8B v +9.5Be
- (NO) Norway Apr Trade Balance (NOK): 26.6B v 37.7B prior
- (UK) Apr Jobless Claims Change: -7.3K v -3.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% v 4.6%e
- (UK) Mar Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 0.4% v 0.7%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (UK) Mar ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths): 7.8% v 7.9% prior; Employment Change 3M/3M: -43K v -2K prior
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) leaves 7-day Lending Rate unchanged at 6.00%
- (CH) Swiss May Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 2.2 v 20 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -0.9%e
- (PT) Portugal Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.9% v -3.9%e

- (CY) Cyprus Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -1.3% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: -4.3% v -3.5% prior
- (GR) Greece Q1 Advance GDP Y/Y: -5.3% v -5.7% prior
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report : Slightly raised growth forecast and hinted it could meet the 2% inflation target a bit sooner than expected

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency opened book to sell new Sept 2044 BTP bond; Order book seen at 7.7B with guidance revised to +13-15bps over Sept 2040 BTP

- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.62% vs. $0.0M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 4.5% 2015 bonds; Yield: 0.7663%
- (RU) Russia sold RUB29.2B vs. RUB30B indicated in Jan 2023 OFZ bonds; Yield: 6.64% vs. guidance of 6.60-6.65%
- (DE) Germany sold 4.229B in new 0.0% 2015 Schatz; Avg Yield: +0.02% v +0.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.00x v 2.16x prior
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total vs. 1.50-1.75B indicated range in 6 Month and 12- month Bills
- Sold 0.5B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.811% v 2.169% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 4.5x prior
- Sold 1.5B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.232% v 1.394% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.2x v 2.1x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.20% at 6,672,
DAX flat at 8,337, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,960, IBEX-35 +0.70% at 8,536, FTSE MIB flat at 17,324, SMI +0.60% at 8,240, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,644

- Equity markets in Europe are currently trading mixed, as traders assess euro zone Q1 GDP data. Germany's DAX is trading off of the session's best levels, as the country's Q1 GDP growth missed analyst expectations. Spain's IBEX-35 has outperformed, supported by gains in the banking sector. Declines in the Swiss Franc currency have support gains on the SMI index. European banks are currently trading mixed. Commerzbank has outperformed, while laggards include HSBC and BNP. Declines in copper prices have continued to weigh on resource related companies.

- UK movers [EasyJet +6% (H1 loss below ests), Centamin Egypt +4.5% (Q1 profits rose y/y),LSE +3.5% (FY sales rose 7% y/y), Land Securities +2.5% (FY profits rose y/y), Balfour Beatty +2% (contract award); Centaur Media -30% (profit warning), ITV -3.5% (cautious outlook for TV advertising)]
- Germany movers [Commerzbank +9% (Soffin priced shares at upper end of range),ThyssenKrupp +3.5% (Q2 op profit above ests, cost cutting measures), Tui AG +3% (Q2 sales above ests, cost cuts); Air Berlin -3.5% (Q1 net loss widened)]
- Switzerland movers [Tornos +35% (capital raise)]
- Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi +4% (Q1 net loss below ests)]

Speakers:
- Bank of England (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report slightly raised growth forecast and hinted it could meet the 2% inflation target a bit sooner than expected.
Risks to recovery remained on the downside and the euro zone was still a risk. BOE forecasted Q2 GDP +0.5% q/q, y/y at 2.2% (prior view 2.0%). It saw inflation rate above 3% in June with CPI at 2.0% target in 2 years assuming market rates path. Specifically inflation rate to fall back to target from 1Q 2015, vs. prior view of 3Q 2015
- BOE Gov King stated that growth was a little stronger; first time has been able to give brighter economic outlook since financial crisis but still saw significant margin of spare capacity. He reiterates that monetary policy cannot cure all and must be cautious of its limits
- France Fin Min Moscovici reaffirmed 2013 GDP growth outlook and added that growth would restart in H2 and pledged to reverse jobless curve by year-end
- France President Hollande spokesperson Belkacem commented that its GDP decline was not a surprise, country was doing better than the Eurozone as a whole
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov commented that 2013 inflation to reach 6.0% and might be higher in H1. He saw no room for additional spending in 2013-15 due to economic risks
- IG Metall industrial union agreed to a staggered wage deal in German state of Bavaria and the agreement will have wages rise 3.4% on July 1st vs. union demand of a 5.5% over a one-year period, will expire at the end of 2014. The agreement likely to serve as a pilot deal for all other German regions
- BOJ Gov Kuroda commented that JPY currency (yen) weakness was expected to push prices higher by raising import costs but played down on concerns on cost-push inflation.
Kuroda reiterated of having no comment on yen level and movementand stated that BOJ was trying to achieve inflation with positive economic cycle. The narrowing in output gap and rising inflation expectations to contribute to achieving inflation.
- Poland Deputy Labor Min Mecina: Unemployment Rate seen falling to 13.5% in June ((*Note: March was 14.3%)
- China NDRC Vice Chairman: Call for pushing forward on economic restructuring as domestic economy has downward pressure
- India PM Advisor commented that surge in gold imports was a concern and the recent surge in demand needed to be rolled back. He advised that it needed to provide alternative investment options to reduce gold demand
- Former Japan Fin Min official Sakakibara ('Mr Yen'): USD/JPY likely to turn around from 105 level
- India 2013 Gold demand seen around 965 Tons vs. range of 855 tons-965 tons - World Gold Council (WGC)
- Japan PM Abe stated that would deal with risk of sharp long-term rate rises by making public finances sustainable. He stressed that must gain market trust to deal with risk of rising rates

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD maintained its firm tone into the European session and moved to fresh highs as the day progresses. Market participants continued to focus on the divergence between US growth and the rest of the word. The string of European GDP data only reinforced the sentiment.
- The EUR/USD tested below the 1.29 handle after various GDP data disappointed in the session.
- USD-JPY headed to new trend highs over 102.50
- The GBP/USD was slightly firmer in the session as the headline data continued to beat market expectations. However, the currency paused after dealers noted that ex-bonus wages were at it lowest growth rate since records began in 2001 and highlighted the potential squeeze on consumers' finances
- The USD strength was also reflected in commodity with oil softer and precious metals lower. The upbeat tone of the inflation report helped to keep the GBP on form footing into the NY morning.
- AUD continued to trade under pressure close to 0.9900 after it broke lower after yesterday's Australia federal budget

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Bank of France official: wants to help banks securitize loans for use as ECB collateral via a simple special purpose vehicle
- (EU) Moody's: Global economic recovery is losing momentum, particularly in the eurozone
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell new 30-year bond via syndicate in the near future - financial press
- (UK) Former MPC inflation hawk Sentance believes that 2% is a more realistic neutral rate level in the UK vs the current 0.5% rate - London Telegraph

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (SE) Nordic Prime Ministers meet in Stockholm
- (EU) EBA Board of Supervisors, Banking Shareholders Joint Meeting
- (EU) European Business Summit in Brussels
- (IR) EU-Iran nuclear talks in Istanbul
- (MX) Mexico Apr Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 5.9% prior
- (PE) Peru Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.4% prior
- (PE) Peru Mar Economic Activity Index Y/Y: No est v 5.0% prior
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave key rates unchanged; to leave Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25%; Leave Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Overnight Auction-Based Repo unchanged at 5.50%
- 06:00 (MA) Malaysia Q1 GDP Y/Y: 5.5%e v 6.4% prior;
- 06:00 (MA) Malaysia Current Account (MYR): No est v 22.8B prior
Fixed Income:
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to Sell Bonds
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2017 and 2036 bonds
- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in 2018 OFZ bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (FR) France President Hollande with EU Commission in Brussels
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 10th: No est v 7.0% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 2.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 3.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Current Account: +14Me v -854M prior; Trade Balance: 160Me v 602M prior; Exports: 12.8Be v 12.1B prior; Imports: 12.7Be v 11.5B prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.5%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y; +3.6%e v -0.2% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.4%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) May Empire Manufacturing: 4.00e v 3.05 prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Producer Price Index M/M: -0.6%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 1.1% prior

- 08:30 (US) Apr PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.6%e v 2.6% prior
- 09:00 (US) IMF chief Lagarge at Bretton Woods conference
- 09:00 (US) Mar Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $53.6B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: +$35.0Be v -$17.8B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Apr Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 2.4% prior
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Apr YTD Budget Level (PLN): No est v -24.4B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 68.6% prior
- 09:15 (US) Apr Industrial Production: -0.1%e v +0.4% prior; Capacity Utilization: 78.3%e v 78.5% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior
- 10:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 10:00 (US) May NAHB Housing Market Index: 43e v 42 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.75-1.00B in Notes
- 11:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy speaks at Conference in Brussels
- 12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel in Munich
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3 Year Notes
- 14:30 (US) Fed's Gibson
-15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.6% prior
-15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.0% prior
- 16:00 (EU) EU's Almunia participates at Munich Economic
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7%e v 0.0% prior; Annualized: 2.7%e v 0.2% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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