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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone Trade runs surplus in March

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone Trade runs surplus in March
Thu, 16 May 2013 5:47 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Preliminary Q1 GDP shows Abeonomics working with YoY growth at 3.5% vs. 2.7%e
- China Apr Actual FDI YoY registers 0.4% vs. 6.2% cons
- IMF approves 1.0B aid for Cyprus with 110.7M to be disbursed immediately but adds the country's outlook still highly uncertain
- New Zealand budget to return to surplus in 2014/15
- EU Trade Balnce handily beats expectations to record level

***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary Wages Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.2% prior; Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.3%e
- (FR) France Survey of Industrial Investments: Executives see 2013 Manufacturing Investment -4% y/y vs. 0.0% (flat) prior Jan view
- (CZ) Czech Mar Export Price Index Y/Y: 2.6% v 0.8% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: +1.1% v -0.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech Apr PPI (Industrial) M/M: -0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.9%e
- (ES) Spain Mar Industrial Orders NSA -13.9% y/y; Industrial Orders WDA -6.8% y/y
- (EU) ECB: 91M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.1B prior; 96.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 101.5B prior
- (AT) Austria Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.1 v 2.3% prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Total Trade Balance: 3.2B v 1.1B prior; Trade Balance EU: 607M v 380M prior
- (NO) Norway Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v +0.3%e; GDP Mainland Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.8%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: 18.7B v 11.5Be; Trade Balance unadj: 22.9B (record level) v 10.4B prior

- (ES) Spain autonomous regions Q1 budget deficit -0.12% of GDP

Fixed Income:
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.99B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2015, 2017 and 2018 Oats

- Sold 3.248B in 0.25% Nov 2015 Oats; Avg Yield 0.21% v 0.24% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.68x v 2.24x prior
- Sold 1.1B in 3.75% Apr 2017 Oats; Avg Yield 0.49% v 0.74% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.64x v 2.79x prior
- Sold 3.65B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 0.74% v 0.73% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.95x v 2.24x prior
- (PL) Poland sold total PLN5.5B in 2023, 2024 and 2028 Bonds
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF67.5B vs. HUF45B indicated in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds (all at record low yields)
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold 500M vs. 500M indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.129% v 0.195% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.60x v 4.76x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 2.5B in 3.25% 2044 Gilts; Avg Yield: 3.121% v 3.121% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x v 1.69x prior; Tail: 0.2bps v 0.3bps prio

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,697,
DAX -0.20% at 8,348, CAC-40 -0.30% at 3,970, IBEX-35 flat at 8,579, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 17,552, SMI -0.50% at 8,272, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,654

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly lower, amid declines in commodity prices. Slight outperformance has been seen for the Italian FTSE MIB, tracking the gains in Italy's sovereign bond prices. Banks are trading mixed, amid underperformance in the German banking sector. Declines in shares of Zurich Insurance have weighed on the Swiss SMI index. US companies due to report earnings during the US morning include retailers Kohl's and Wal-Mart.

- UK movers [Thomas Cook +7% (H1 loss narrowed, financing agreement), Dixons +6% (positive FY outlook), Aviva +3.5% (Q1 new business level rose y/y), Lonmin +2% (easing strike concerns related to Marikana mine); Optos -20% (profit warning), Stagecoach -2% (broker commentary),Petrofac -2% (cautious 2013 comments), Invensys -1% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- France movers [CNP -2.5% (Q1 profits declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Beiersdorf +2% (renewed takeover speculation); Suedzucker -5.5% (cautious outlook)]
- Switzerland movers [Richemont +5% (FY results above ests); Zurich Insurance -3% (Q1 results below ests), ABB Group -1% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Geox -3% (Q1 profits and sales declined y/y)]
- Belgium movers [KBC Bank +1% (Q1 results above ests)]

Speakers:
- Fed's Plosser (hawk, non-voter) commented in Milan that it needed to focus on a wide-range of objectives and added that financial markets would not tell when it time to exit
. Would have to be conscience of the impact of zero rate policy as we do not predict asset bubbles well. He stated that the Fed would do what was best for US economy and the committee was focused on unemployment. He reiterated that holding of Mortgage-backed securities was not good for central bank.
- Greece PM Samaras speech to Chinese Academy of Social Sciences stressed that his govt was confident of debt reorganization and hoped that China would further engage in Greece's recovery process. He called for Greece and China to strengthen cooperation in construction projects
- Luxembourg PM Juncker: Europe undoubtedly on track to resolve crisis
- German Fin Min Schaueble: Crisis has entered a new phase with weak growth in focus
- EU's Barroso commented that existential crisis of the Euro was behind us at this time but the economic situation was still worrying thus the crisis was not over. The EMU still has economic problems but the overall doubts were gone and sawgrowth returning in 2014
- German Parliament member Lammert stated that Croatia might not meet all EU criteria (*Note: German Parliament to vote later today on Croatia's entry into EU)
- Portugal Govt might lower its corporate tax over four years to 20% from the current level of 31.5%
- US said to seek $5.0B from Switzerland to end bank tax row
- Hungary Central bank Gov Matolcsy stated that Q1 GDP growth was modest but healthy and would use all tools to ensure sustained growth. He added that rate setters saw room for lower rates
- Hungary Central banker Balog stated that it was too early to assess Q1 GDP data impact on rate policy and CPI would not substantially affect the central bank's general stance
- Japan Banking Assoc President Kunibe commented that he did not see skepticism for 'abenomics' and that the PM's third arrow might increase corporate sentiment. He also noted that Japan's institutional investors would shift from portfolios designed for deflation
- World Gold Council (WGC) stated that Q1 Global gold demand was -13% y/y (three-year low) driven by ETF liquidations. It added that demand for jewelry in Emerging markets and for bars and coins increased. Central banks acquired more than 100 tons of gold in the first quarter, the seventh consecutive quarter of significant buying from the official sector. However, demand was at its lowest since the second quarter of 2011.Technology sector gold demand fell 4% on-year to 102 tons in the first quarter while Q1 global gold supply was little changed at 1,051.6 tons.
- China Foreign Min Hong Lei stated that he hoped EU dids not resort to trade protectionism and the region should create an open, fair environment for Chinese companies (**Reminder: Reports noted that China was said to be planning to impose duties on polysilicon imports from the US, EU and South Korea)
- South Africa's Assoc of Mineworkers and Construction Union: Co stated that Anglo American Platinum. might face strike from May 19th. A Labor Leader stated later that workers would stop work at all shafts from Thursday, May 16th (evening) over proposed job cuts
- South Africa Min: Govt Cabinet is 'extremely, extremely concerned' about unrest in the mining industry
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief inspector Nackaerts stated that nuclear talks with Iran had failed as IAEA: could not finalize the structured approach document that has been under negotiation for a year and a half.
- Iran Nuclear negotiator Jalili stated that Istanbul nuclear talks were 'useful'; two-sides will now contemplate on discussions. He added that was ready to continue nuclear talks with world powers either before or after the June elections for Iran

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR found it hard to find upward momentum as participants positioned themselves for more monetary easing by the ECB following a run of weak economic data thus seem vulnerable on the downside
- The JPY maintained its soft tone following Japan's preliminary Q1 GDP which showed that Abenomics was working. Dealers noting that USD/JPY pair might have some headwinds due to very heavy 103.00 barrier exposure.
- The AUD still hovered at fresh 11-month lows

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Moody's: Year to date high-yield issuance for EMEA companies is just below $50B; Expect to see strong issuance through 2013.
- (DE) Chancellor Merkel adviser Meister suggested that Italy and France need to accelerate efforts to deal with their structural problems - German Press
-(IE) Think tank ESRI raises Ireland 2013 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 1.3% prior, forecasts 2014 GDP at 2.7%; sees no option to austerity
- (CH) SNB's Zurbruegg: Sovereign wealth fund for Switzerland would not make sense; Swiss franc cap will remain as needed for price stability
- (US) Fed's Lacker (hawk, non-voter): Reiterates that more monetary stimulus will not spur growth - financial press
-(JP) Japan investors bought net 186.4B in Foreign Bonds last week vs sold net 490.5B prior week

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (SE) Nordic Prime Ministers meet in Stockholm
- (EU) EBA Board of Supervisors, Banking Shareholders Joint Meeting
- (EU) European Business Summit in Brussels
- (EU) Non-policy ECB meeting in Frankfurt
- 06:00 (IS) Israel Q1 Advance GDP Annualized: 2.8%e v 2.6% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Trade Balance: First Estimate No est v 3.1B prior
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 1.2B in I/L 2018, 2019 and 2024 Oats
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 12-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 10th: No est v $533.5B prior
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Key rates by 25bps; Cut Benchmark Repo Rate by 25bps to 4.75%; Expected to cut Overnight Lending Rate by 25bps to 6.75%; Expected to cut Overnight Borrowing Rate by 25bps to 3.75%
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.1%e v +0.2% prior
- 07:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Luxembourg PM Juncker regarding upcoming Leader Summit (May 22nd)
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to Sell RON500M in Bonds
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Economic Activity Index M/M: +0.8%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 0.4% prior
- 07:45 (US) Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Milan
- 08:00 (US) Tsy Official Brainard in NY
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Core Inflation M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.3%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr CPI NSA: 232.690e v 232.773 prior; CPI Core Index: No est v 232.758 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 323K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.003Me v 3.005M prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Housing Starts: 973Ke v 1.036M prior; Building Permits: 941Ke v 907K prior (revised from 902K)

- 08:30 (US) USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Securities Transactions: +C$5.0Be v -C$6.3B prior
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Fisher Speaks at NABE Industry Conference in Houston
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Trade Balance: No est v -191.0M prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium) speaks in Brussels
- 09:30 (DE) German Lower House vote on Croatia EU membership
- 10:00 (AT) ECB's Liikanen (Finland) Speaks in Vienna
- 10:00 (FR) France's President Hollande hosts Press Conference at Elyse
- 10:00 (US) May Philadelphia Fed: 3.0e v 1.3 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 10-year TIPS refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:45 (EU) EU's Barroso speaks at conference in Brussels
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Raskin (voter; moderate) on economy in Washington DC
- 15:05 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on Monetary Policy in Portland, OR
- (TR) Turkey PM Erdogan meets with US President Obama
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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