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Thursday May 16, 2013 - 15:44:58 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: US Markets Flat Despite Soft Data US Market Update: US Markets Flat Despite Soft Data
Thu, 16 May 2013 11:02 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IS) Israel Q1 Advance GDP Annualized: 2.8% v 2.8%e
- (IE) Ireland Mar Trade Balance: First Estimate 3.5B v 3.1B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 10th: $520.4B v $533.5B prior
- (TR) Turkey Central Bank cut Key rates by 50bps (more tan expected); Cut Benchmark Repo Rate by 50bps to 4.50%; Cut Overnight Lending Rate by 50bps to 6.50%; Cut Overnight Borrowing Rate by 50bps to 3.50%
- (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (BR) Brazil Mar Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (PL) Poland Apr Core Inflation M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1,1% v 0.8%e
- (US) Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.3%e
- (US) Apr CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e
- (US) Apr CPI NSA: 232.531 v 232.690e; CPI Core Index: 232.879 v 233.096e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 360K v 330Ke; Continuing Claims: 3.009M v 3.000Me
- (US) Apr Housing Starts: 853K v 970Ke; Building Permits: 1.02M v 941Ke
- (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Securities Transactions: C$1.3B v C$5.0Be
- (BE) Belgium Mar Trade Balance: -40.5M v -191.0M prior
- (US) May Philadelphia Fed: -5.2 v 2.0e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +99 bcf v +92-97 bcf

- US equity indices are doing better than might be expected this morning after plenty of tepid data and Walmart's poor showing. As of writing, the DJIA is flat, the S&P500 is -0.1% and the Nasdaq is up 0.2%, aided by Cisco.

- Four weak US data reports touching jobs, housing, inflation and manufacturing are favoring the skeptics about US economic recovery this morning. The weekly jobless claims topped expectations and saw their largest w/w rise since last fall. The April housing starts widely missed expectations, with the annualized rate dropping sharply to 853K from the 1.04M rate seen in March (which was the highest rate since 2008). The negative headline April CPI was the lowest reading since December 2008, thanks to low oil prices, putting the annual figure at 1.1%, well below the Fed's 2.0% target rate. Ex food and energy the core annualized rate is still only 1.7%. Note that Fed hawk Fisher commented that the recent decline in inflation is benign and said he is not expecting deflation. Finally the May Philly Fed manufacturing survey was way off the mark to the downside, echoing the Empire survey yesterday.

- The greenback is on the defensive this morning after two full days of strong gains. EUR/USD tested 1.2850 overnight ahead of a raft of weak US data before rising back into the 1.29 handle during the US session. USD/JPY its best levels after flirting with recent highs around 102.75. Dealers noted that yen bears were encouraged after Japan MoF weekly flow data revealed that Japanese investors had shifted to net buyers of foreign bonds.

- Wal-Mart's Q1 EPS and revenue missed expectations and sales declined slightly on a y/y basis. The firm's Q2 guidance was also soft. Comps were negative. Among other issues, including higher payroll taxes, a delay in IRS refunds and cooler weather, executives cited less grocery inflation than expected as an issue. Shares of WMT are down 2.3%.

- Shares of Cisco are up nearly 11%, putting them 2.5 year highs and helping offset some of the trouble this morning. Cisco's Q3 results were not exactly spectacular, as the firm merely met expectations and saw modest y/y earnings and revenue gains. The Q4 revenue guidance was likewise just in line. The firm offers an upbeat contrast to a lot of gloom out of other networking competitors.

- Tesla disclosed big new debt and equity offerings yesterday after the close, including the sale of 2.7M new shares, or 2% of the firm's float, after share have doubled over the last few weeks. Counterintuitively, shares of TSLA are up 9% this morning, back at all-time highs after the declines of the last two sessions. Note that CEO Musk said he would buy $100M of common stock at the same price as the offering.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:45 (EU) EU's Barroso speaks at conference in Brussels

- 12:30 (US) Fed's Raskin (voter; moderate) on economy in Washington DC
- 15:05 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on Monetary Policy in Portland, OR
- (TR) Turkey PM Erdogan meets with US President Obama
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%




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