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Friday May 17, 2013 - 10:12:37 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Quiet session in Europe; EU27 Car Registrations rise for first time in over 18 months EU Market Update: Quiet session in Europe; EU27 Car Registrations rise for first time in over 18 months
Fri, 17 May 2013 5:43 AM EST

- BoJ will discuss the related risks and potential effect on its 2% inflation target at its two-day policy meeting next week
- EBA to delay EU bank stress tests until 2014, timing of stress tests to depend on EU approval of the ECB as banking supervisor in the euro zone
- France President Hollande: Cannot request ECB lower interest rates further; confident Draghi knows what he is doing
- China Vice Commerce Minister Jiang: EU is the main instrument for diversifying China FX reserves
- EU27 Car Registrations rise for first time in over 18 months

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 13th (RUB): 7.71T v 7.74T prior
- (EU) EU27 Apr New Car Registrations: +1.7% v -10.2% prior; first increase in 18 months
- (ES) Spain Mar Bank bad loan ratio 10.47% v 10.39% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Construction Output M/M: -1.7% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -7.9% v +1.7% prior
- (ES) Spain Mar Trade Balance: +0.6B v -1.2B prior; first ever monthly trade surplus on record

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2018, 2023, 2030 and 2041 bonds


FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,694
, DAX flat at 8,367, CAC-40 +0.20% at 3,986, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,548, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 17,575, SMI -0.40% at 8,220, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,652

- European bourses are trading mixed, as traders continue to debate when the Fed will reduce the scale of its quantitative easing program. Switzerland's SMI has underperformed amid weakness in shares of heavyweights including Zurich Financial and Roche. European banks are mostly higher, led by gains in the UK banking sector. Shares of BBVA have lagged, as Spain's bad loan ratio rose again in March. Resource related companies are trading mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices. The European auto sector has been supported by data which showed that EU27 new car registrations rose in April for the first time since late 2011.

- UK movers [Ocado +25% (confirmed agreement with Morrisons), PV Crystalox +6% (cash return to shareholders), Direct Line +3% (broker commentary); Capital Drilling -12% (disclosed charge), Intertek -4.5% (cautious comments regarding margins), Aviva -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Daimler +1% (EU car registrations data), Volkswagen +1% (EU car registrations data)]
- France movers [Peugeot +5% (EU car registrations data), Michelin +2% (reaffirmed outlook), Renault +2% (EU car registrations data), Lagardere +1% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Fiat -2% (broker commentary, EU car registrations data)]
- Denmark movers [AP Moeller +0.60% (Q1 profits above ests); FLSmidth -6% (Q1 results below ests)]

- ECB's Coeure (France) stated that the central bank must act within its mandat
e and reiterated it was exploring options to strengthen SME lending, He noted that financial conditions in Eurozone were generally improved and that arguments that ECB was not well placed to support employment were overstated. Monetary indicators key to ensuring price stability and ECB to accompany recovery if reforms continued
- BoE's Weale commented that failure to damp CPI shock risked entrenching expectations. The MPC concluded market rate expectations consistent with economic outlook and that economy prospects looked better than they have in a while. Strong March data was a springboard for Q2 growth. He saw possible stagnation being replaced by moderate growth. Considerable amount of work underway on forward guidance with the yield curve showing no rate rise until 2016
- Japan PM Abe: Japan has gained global understanding of Abenomics and added that Govt aimed to triple infrastructure exports to 30T by 2020
- Japan MOF's Furusawa commented that it had no comment on specific currency levels and the MOF did not draw the line at 100 or 110 in the USD/JPY pair. It was observing FX rates that were determined by market forces. The official added that long-term JGB yields to stabilize; MOF, BOJ and JGB players kept in close contact. Fx currency rates were not set by monetary policy alone and that the USD status as key unit unlikely to change; Euro, Yuan assets not for diversifying reserves. The MOF reiterated that ending deflation to help global growth
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov reiterated that Govt weighing dividend increase for State companies and still discussing 35% payout. He noted that that higher payout attracted investors and increases budget revenues
- Czech Debt Agency chief Pavelek commented that it would not sell foreign bonds in H1 and would review debt issuance plans in H2. He added that using investor demand to sell longer-dated bonds in regular domestic auctions and would offer more 2036 bonds
- PBoC researcher Gu Mingde commented that China should not alter prudent monetary policies and that the country's economic growth was stable.
- Turkey Econ Min Caglayan: Interest rates might fall to 2.5% (Currently 4.50%)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was quite limited in a quiet European morning. The EUR/USD was still stayed well contained within recent ranges with Mid-East bids said to be providing support at 1.2840 area.
- The JPY remained near rend lows ahead of Japan PM Abe speech to provide his third tranche of his "Abenomics" prescription to help Japan economy. This portion to focus on reforms to achieve growth through stimulating private investment. There were rumors that the Govt might lower the Corp tax rate.

Political/In the Papers:
- (US) Fed's Williams: Looking for sustained improvement in job market before calling for end of buying assets; Will not commit to any one meeting to change of policy; Depends on economic developments; More confident today that labor market will recover; reiterates Fed may be able to taper bond buying as early as this summer
-(US) Fed's Raskin (FOMC voter; moderate): policy is appropriate given the outlook and risks; many people still cannot obtain mortgage credit
- (US) Fed's Fisher: Recent decline in headline inflation is benign, not expecting deflation; decline in energy and food prices is not of concern; Notes that he is not the only member at the Fed willing to wind down MBS purchases; Fed should reduce MBS purchases and end them by year end
- (US) Federal Reserve not alarmed about low inflation; Fed comforted by stable inflation expectations - financial press op/ed;
- (EU) European Commissioner for Industry Tajani: Euro currency is too strong and is hurting exports
- (EU) China Vice Commerce Minister Jiang: EU is the main instrument for diversifying China FX reserves; Chinese investments in EU will help its recovery; China will expand investments in port of Piraeus, Greece.
- (JP) Japan risks exporting deflation if yen continues to weaken - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard; Says the current situation (weaker yen and slowing growth in Asian countries) is reminiscent to what was seen during the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:15 (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium) speaks in Brussels
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB member Mersch (Luxembourg)
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 10th: No est v $294.3B prior
- 08:00 (IC) Iceland Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.3% prior
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Monthly Economic Indicators Report
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Wholesale Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 1.0% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 122.9 prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.4% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Global Economic Indicator: -0.7%e v +0.4% prior
- 09:00 (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn on US Trade Relations in Helsinki
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 3.2% prior
- 09:15 (NO) Norway PM Stoltenburg with Finland PM Katainen
- 09:55 (US) May Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 77.9e v 76.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Leading Indicators: +0.2%e v -0.1% prior

- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $4.75-5.75B in Notes
- 13:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota, Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves speak in Chicago
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.3%e v +0.6% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: -4.3%e v -4.5% prior
- 21:30 (CN) China Apr Property Prices


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