Monday May 20, 2013 - 03:54:13 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-May-2013 -0351 GMT
Nifty 6187.3, +17.40) closed on a bullish note last week. We see good chances of seeing 6250-75, maybe even 6300 in the next few days. Short term supports come in around 6120-6080.
Dow Jones (15354.40, +121.18) saw a rally over 100 points on Friday. But we are also approaching a resistance around 15420-15450 so a small dip to 15100-15050 cannot be ruled out.
Dax (8398.00, +28.13) traded sideways mostly on Friday. We may see the Dax remains sideways and consolidate in coming days. We see short term supports around 8300-8250.
The Nikkei (15342.10, +204.00) is up over 200 points after having remained sideways for some days. Supports are seen at 15000-14900.
Shanghai (2,289.40, +6.65) has broken out of a good basing pattern on the upside and may move higher. We may see it heading towards 2325 in coming days as long as the supports around 2260-2250.
Gold (1346.90) has moved lower below 1350 and may continue to remain weak below 1400. Silver (21.63) has broken below 22 and now may continue to drift lower. We see Silver heading lower to 21 as long as it trades below 22.
Despite the weakness in Gold and Silver, industrial metals have done better.
Brent (104.61) has moved higher on global optimism and may remain ranged between 103-106 in coming days. Like Brent Copper (3.30) too move higher and may see a move to 3.35 in coming days. Supports come in at 3.25.
The Euro (1.2838) has broken below the supports around 1.2850. Fall in the Germany-USA 10-Yr spread may see the Euro move down to 1.28 in coming days.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9698) has moved back below the 200 day weekly exponential moving average around 0.9717 after having moved above it. With the Dollar Index (84.17) remaining above 84 the currency pair may continue to trade in a range of 0.9750-0.9650 and remain bullish.
The Dollar-Yen (102.76) has retreated after having met with resistance around the 103 levels. If the price action manages to sustain above 103 then we see a move to 104 else we may dip to 101.
The Euro-Yen (131.94) is trading below 132 and may see a ranged move between 133 to 131 in coming days.
The Pound (1.5187) is trading below the 1.52 mark. If the Pound is unable to breach 1.5220 on the upside we may see it move lower to 1.51.
The weakness in Gold continues to keep the Aussie (0.9773) under pressure. The earlier support around 0.98 has been broken and the Aussie may now test the June-12 low near 0.96.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2513) had seen a huge rise past 1.25 and can target 1.2560 now. There is a reasonable support around 1.2450.
Dollar-Rupee (54.88) had closed yesterday near the higher end of the 54-55 range and had opened near 54.87 today. We expect a broad trading range of 55.10-54.50 to hold in coming days.
The US 10-Yr (1.96%) has moved back above and now looks to retest the 2.00% levels. This move has lead to the fall in Euro below 1.2850 and that may lead it down to 1.28 in coming days.
The JPY 10-Yr (0.81%) has seen a sharp spike after the better than expected economic data from Japan.
The Germany-USA 10-Yr Spread (-0.63%) has moved higher back above -0.60% which is not at good news for the Euro and that might percolate into the weak performance of the Indian Rupee.
No major data release today.
CA Inflation Y/Y
...Actual 0.40 % ...Previous 1.00 %
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