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Monday May 20, 2013 - 10:09:17 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Whit Monday holiday has Europe on the sidelines

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Whit Monday holiday has Europe on the sidelines
Mon, 20 May 2013 5:31 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Nikkei225 index trades higher than the US Dow Industrial 30 index for the first time since May 2010
- Ceasefire in the currency war ??? Japan Econ MIn Amari suggesting that excessive gains have already been corrected by a large amount and any further weakness could actually become a detriment
- Short-range North Korea missile launch into the Sea of Japan this weekend
- China property sector retained its allure despite the govt steps to curb housing inflation. April property prices across 70 cities rose 4.9% y/y - the biggest increase since Apr 2011
- European market participation light die to Whit Monday holiday (Pentecost)

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Final Leading Index CI: 97.9 v 97.6 prelim; Coincident Index CI: 93.8 v 93.3 prelim
- (JP) Japan Apr Nationwide Dept Store Sales Y/Y: -0.5% v +3.9% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: 2.1% v 6.4% prior
- (JP) Japan Apr Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -23.6% v -24.1% prelim
- (JP) Japan Apr Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -2.6% v -0.4% prior
- (EU) ECB: 122M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 106M prior; 83.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 96.7B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Apr Export Orders Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.0%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 1.6% v 0.6%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -10.0% v -8.4%e

- (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Sales M/M: -0.9 v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -7.6% v -6.0% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Q1 Current Account Balance: $11.1B v $16.0B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.5%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Current Account: +1.9B v -1.6B prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 flat at 6,725,
DAX +0.50% at 8,436, CAC-40 +0.10% at 4,007, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 8,569, FTSE MIB -0.70% at 17,479, SMI +0.30% at 8,280, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,662

- Equity markets in European are mostly higher, tracking the gains seen in Asia. Germany's DAX traded at a fresh record high earlier during the session, but has since pared gains. In London, the FTSE 100 has traded at new 5.5 year highs. Italy's FTSE MIB has lagged, amid declines in shares of Telecom Italia. European banks are mostly higher, led by shares of Commerzbank and RBS. Miners have capped the upside for equity markets, as they have been weighed down by the declines in commodity prices, most notably silver.

- UK movers [Ryanair +6% (FY profits above ests);First Group -21% (rights offering, cut dividend), Fresnillo -3% (decline in silver prices), ENRC -2.5% (said takeover approach undervalues the company), Petropavlovsk -2.5% (broker commentary) Thomas Cook -2%(broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Rheinmetall +3.5% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [STMicroelectronics +3% (broker commentary), EDF +1% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Impreglio +17% (contract award)]
- The Netherlands movers [TomTom +6% (takeover speculation)]

Speakers:
- Spain Budget Min Montoro:
Spain economic recovery is proceeding faster than markets are predicting
- Poland Central Bank's Hausner stated that he saw potential room for more interest rate cuts as inflation stays below the 2.5% target. He added that needed to wait for effects of past easing and not make nervous moves
- Italy Govt to set aside 12B to combat youth unemployment. Seeks to cut youth unemployment to 30% from 36.3% registered in March for age group between 15-24
- Brazil President Rousseff stated that Apr CAGED Formal Job Creation: 200K (**Note compares to 210.0Ke) - Tel Aviv conference
- South Korea Fin Min Hyun: South Korea to ease KRW movement if fx volatility intensifies; closely monitoring foreign capital flows but no immediate plans to strengthen foreign capital controls
- North Korea said to have fired 3 additional short-range projectiles into Eastern Waters (**Note: over the weekend North Korea fired four short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan)
- North Korea official: Exercising sovereign right to test rockets
- South Korea Defense Ministry Kim: North Korea has yet to finish developing 300-millimeter-caliber multiple rocket launchers; Whether they are missiles or rockets, a sharp increase in the target range allows the North to aim at more objects and targets, An increase in the size of caliber means larger explosiveness and increased threats

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- A very quiet start to the trading week as Whit Monday holiday had market participants sit on the sidelines.
- The FX markets saw a bit of retracement in last week's currency trends as the USD moved off its highs while the JPY drifted away from trend lows.
- The USD/JPY was lower by 50+pips ahead of the NY morning. Dealers were wondering whether an implied ceasefire was underway in the stealth currency wars. Japan Econ MIn Amari suggested that excessive gains had already been corrected by a large amount and any further weakness in the yen could actually become a detriment.

Political/In the Papers:
- (JP) Japanese government on Monday upgraded its assessment of the
economy for the first time in two months, citing gradual improvement in exports
and industrial output.
- (JP) BOJ gov Kuroda: natural for long-term JGB yields to rise as inflation expectation is picking up
- (CN) China may expand property tax trial to several cities during the current year - Chinese press
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) research warns of risks to HK economy from potential asset price bubbles
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann: Improved lending conditions and lower interest rates should not lead to complacency about euro zone crisis - German press - (IT) Moody's: Italy's stronger budgetary performance still justifies a higher rating than Spain
- (IT) EU's Rehn: Content with the Italy govt's intent to reach a balanced budget, will conduct an assessment of the measures on May 29
- (US) Treasury Sec Lew: Congress must act soon to protect the credit worthiness of the US - letter to Congress; Notes the Treasury's extraordinary measures will expire after September 2 yet cannot provide exact estimate on how long the measures will last, will not negotiate with Congress over the debt limit; Confirms Treasury will begin its extraordinary measures after reaching the debt limit
- (US) Moody's: Budget projections are Credit Positive for US

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) European Parliament plenary session
- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) to sell 2016 and 2024 Bonds
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Producer Prices M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300M in Bonds
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.0%e v 0.3% prelim
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Avg Gross Wages M/M: -0.9%e v +3.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Employment M/M: -0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.9%e v -0.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index: No est v -0.23 prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.0%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 5.7% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Q1 Current Account: -$1.8Be v -$2.9B prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (IE) Ireland PM Kenny at Boston College commencement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (US) IMF's Cottarelli
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Economy in Chicago
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q1 Total Unemployment Rate: No est v % prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Trade Balance: -$100Me v +$386.4M prior; Imports CIF: No est v $4.5B prior
- 21:30 (AU) RBA May policy minutes

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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