Tuesday May 21, 2013 - 03:40:11 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 21-May-2013 -0337 GMT
The Equity markets after having seen such huge run up may go in to a phase of consolidation in the next few days.
Nifty (6156.90, -30.40) ended yesterday lower by 30 points. With most global markets remaining quiet we may see Nifty remain sideways between 6100-6220.
Dow Jones (15,335.30, -19.12) remained flat and ranged yesterday. The Dow is approaching a resistance around 15400-15450 so a small dip to 15100-15050 cannot be ruled out.
Dax (8,455.83, +57.83) remained positive and closed higher. We see short term supports around 8300-8250.
The Nikkei (15359.40, -1.45) has opened flat and may continue to stay ranged in the next few days. We see 15000-14900 as the region of strong support.
Shanghai (2,296.94, -3.27) like the Nikkei is also flat. The Shanghai looks bullish and after consolidating around current levels may target 2325-2350 in coming days. Strong supports emerge around 2260-2250.
Gold (1387) has seen a small bounce from 1340 levels. The price action is going to find strong resistance around 1420 and so the chances of going back to 1350 looks more likely.
Silver (22.51) too like Gold has seen a bounce from a trend line support around 20.50. However this shallow upmove may see a reversal on the downside around the resistance of 23 and head lower back to 22.
Brent (104.94) continues to remain ranged and is trading firm around the 104.90 mark. We may see it holding the range of 103 to 106 going forward.
Copper (3.35) has moved higher and is around a very crucial level of 3.35. Breach above 3.35 may see it heading to 3.45 in coming days or else Copper may move back to the 3.30 mark.
The Euro (1.2881) has moved back above the 1.2850 after the German-US yield spread have slightly moved higher to -0.57%. We may see the Euro attempt a move around 1.29 which happens to be the daily 200 day moving average.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9670) is trading below the resistance around 0.9720. The currency pair looks to stay bullish and may continue to trade in a range of 0.9750-0.9650 going forward.
The Dollar-Yen (102.482) has retreated after having met with resistance around the 103 levels. If the price action manages to sustain above 103 then we see a move to 104 else we may dip to 101.
The Euro-Yen (132.096) has inched up above 132 after the Euro (1.288) has seen a bounce from the 1.28950 levels. We may see the currency pair target 133. Supports come in at 131.
The Pound (1.52506) has moved above 1.5220 levels on the weakness in Dollar. Now we may see the Pound target 1.53. Supports come in at 1.52.
The slight upmove in Gold has seen the Aussie (0.9802) move back above the 0.98 levels. The Aussie may attempt a move up to the resistance of 0.9850 from where it may again come down back to 0.9750.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2538) had seen a huge rise past 1.25 and can target 1.2560 now. There is a reasonable support around 1.2450.
Dollar-Rupee (55.10) remained elevated yesterday despite the Euro saw a minor bounce back from the 1.2830 levels. The up move in Euro was offset by the weakness in Nifty and the Dollar-Rupee finally closed around 55.10. Today we may see the Dollar-Rupee stay ranged between 55.10-54.60.
The US 10-Yr (1.94%) is trading stable and may target 2%.
The JPY 10-Yr (0.85%) has rise sharply and may target 0.90% in coming days.
The Germany-USA 10-Yr Spread (-0.57%) has moved higher to -0.57% on rise in German yield. This may be a small positive development for the Euro.
The Indian 10 yr (7.43%) is at its lowest level in 3 years as inflation has eased to lowest levels since 2009, spurring speculation of further interest-rate cuts.
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.60 % ...Previous 2.80 %
No major data release yesterday.
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