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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK inflation comes in lower than expected and offers BOE more room to stimulate if data does disappoint

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK inflation comes in lower than expected and offers BOE more room to stimulate if data does disappoint
Tue, 21 May 2013 5:50 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA minutes: rate cut appropriate to boost growth; subdues growth & inflation provided room to cut rates; AUD high by historical standards
- The USD/JPY was steady after the Japanese Econ Min Amari backed off from his comments expressing satisfaction with the current value of the JPY
- Germany's Chancellor Merkel said to be considering certain treaty changes aimed at giving more powers to Brussels
- Draft EU law to protect insured bank depositors under 100k; larger depositors could suffer losses after equity and bond holders hit
- UK inflation comes in lower than expected and offers BOE more room to stimulate if data does disappoint
- Thursday data calendar to see a number of flash PMI reports - including China


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar All Industry Activity Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e
- (JP) Japan Apr Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -1.9% v +1.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Producer Prices M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (FI) Finland Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.8%e
- (ZA) South Africa Mar Leading Indicator: 101.9 (rebased) v 133.3 prior
- (CH) Swiss Apr M3 Money Supply M3 Y/Y: 10.2% v 9.9% prior
- (EU) ECB: 190M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 122M prior; 85.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 83.0B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr House Price Index M/M: -1.4%% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -7.6% v -7.0% prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 8.7%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.4% v 8.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Q1 Total Number of Employees: 1.2% v 1.1% prior
- (UK) Apr Gross Mortgage Lending at 12.1B v 11.6B prior
- (UK) Apr PPI Input M/M: -2.3% v -1.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.3%e
- (UK) Apr PPI Output M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.4%e
- (UK) Apr PPI Output Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e

- (UK) Apr CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e
- (UK) Apr RPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.1%e; RPI Ex-Mortgage Interest Payment (RPIX): 2.9% v 3.0%e; Retail Price Index: 249.5 v 249.9e
- (UK) Mar ONS House Price Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr CPI Composite Index Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 3.51B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 3 Month and 9 Month Bills

- Sold 892M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.120% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.76x prior; Max Yield: % v 0.150% prior; Tail: 2.1bps v 3.0bps prior
- Sold 2.62B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.787% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.37x prior; Max Yield: % v 0.825% prior; Tail: 2.1bps v 3.8bps prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF924.1M in 6-Month Bills; Yield: -0.119% v -0.119% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 1034B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 103.5B prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2023, 2031 and 2041 Bonds
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.21% v 4.24% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.24x v 1.71x prior
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 2.73 vs. 2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 1.65B vs. 2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.036% v -0.039% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.02x v 3.48x prior
- Sold 1.08B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.015% v -0.018% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.47x v 2.98x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 flat at 6,758
, DAX -0.40% at 8,418, CAC-40 -0.50% at 4,001, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 8,448, FTSE MIB -0.80% at 17,371, SMI -0.50% at 8,237, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,662

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly lower. Spain's IBEX-35 has lagged as the Spanish government held a bill auction. Most banks have declined, following cautious broker commentary on shares of Deutsche Bank. Resource related firms are mostly higher, as commodity prices pared losses. Automakers in Germany are broadly lower, amid reports that China could announce a tax on certain luxury vehicles.

- UK movers [Capita Group +6% (contract award), Wincanton +5% (contract award), Marks & Spencer +4% (FY results above ests), Burberry +1% (FY results above ests), Vodafone flat (FY results in line, raised dividend); Carnival -13% (profit warning), Bwin Party -4.5% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Commerzbank -4.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Bank -2.5% (broker commentary), Continental -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Leclanche +15% (expanded bridge loan); Sonova -3% (cautious outlook), Syngenta -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Buzzi Unicem +4.5% (broker commentary); SNAM Rete -1% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [Imtech (issued prelim FY12 results)]

Speakers:
- German official commented ahead of Wed EU Leader Summit that was seeking a joint Euro proposal with France.
He added that German Chancellor Merkel and France President Hollande might discuss the Euro at the summit and the German-French euro area talks were intensive. Germany wanted to increase scope and intensity of tax-sharing data and a single EU energy market was one of its goals. EU Treaty change was not on Summit agenda (**Reminder: Reports circulated that Germany's Chancellor Merkel was said to be considering certain treaty changes aimed at giving more powers to Brussels)
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank): Financial markets were functioning well; developments in Euro Area were still main risk to Sweden
- ECB's Liikanen: Speculation of a Euro break-up have died out; ECB measures have helped narrow bond spreads
- Ireland Deputy PM Gilmore: States wants to see tax loopholes closed
- EU's Barroso express concern about EU's immediate growth prospects
- France Fin Min Moscovici was said to be seeking to raise sanctions against tax evasion which could include prison terms and impose 60% tax level on evaders
- Austria Chancellor Faymann: Austria to agree on bank data exchange with EU nations
- Sweden Fin Min Borg commented that bank rules to be tightened gradually over 5-10 years and Sweden should consider raising capital rules above 12%.
- German SPD (opposition) chief Steinbrueck commented that he would extend a motorway toll for trucks to all Federal roads. The move would reap an extra 2.0B annually and the proceeds would go into road and bridge repair
- Hungary Central Bank Financial Stability Report noted that its banking sector faced mild capital shortage in stress test. Hungary's banks had ample liquidity but their capital position had deteriorated. New lending unlikely to recover in the next 2 years, lending to SME's seen recovering in late 2014. Loan to deposit ration to drop to 100% by end of 2014 from 110% currently. Non-performing loans (NPL) might rise above 24% by end of 2014 vs. 19.1% at end 2012. Household loan portfolio deterioration may turn around by the end of 2013
- DMO minutes from quarterly consultations noted that it planned 11 Gilt auctions in Q3
And at least 1 syndicate bond in quarter. GEMMS had mixed views on 1/2 syndicated deals in Q2 and suggested focus on longer dated linkers. Some GEMMS called for 50 to 60 year sale through bank syndicate in July. GEMMS recommended index linked syndicate deal for 50-60 year Gilts for Sept but most GEMMS favored July sale of 30-40 year Gilts through syndicate. Investors wanted long-dated bonds through bank syndicates in Q3. New super long launch could wait until Sept.
- Portugal's Social Security Fund might increase government debt purchases. Under a plan being discussed, the fund could hold up to 90% of its portfolio in Portugal's government debt. Currently at least 50% of the portfolio must be in Portuguese debt
- Former PBoC Advisor Li Daokui: Chia's economy to enter consolidation phase as property market and export sector are no longer growth engines. China cannot be passive as advanced nations ease aggressively
- South Korea Finance Ministry Dir General Choi commented that rapid Yen depreciation was a concern for South Korea and that KRW currency volatility could trigger smoothing operations. Govt was monitoring money inflows to bond market as inflows might be adding to fx volatility. Awaiting good timing on USD-denominated bond sale; North Korea risks affect timing of dollar bond sale.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD was held to a tight range in the session as delaers debated expectations of negative rates in the Euro zone are overdone
- Softer inflation data sent the GBP currency to session lows below 1.5190 and offered BOE more room to stimulate should data does disappoint
- The USD/JPY was steady after the Japanese Econ Min Amari backed off from his comments expressing satisfaction with the current value of the JPY. The pair was edging closer towards the 103 handle. A BOJ rate decision was due on Wednesday but no change in policy was expected after April's bold easing was announced
- CNY strengthened towards 6.1300 for fresh 19-year highs on widening of trading band speculation. The CNY at highest level since end 1993 when govt unified official and market exchange rates
- Precious metals stage a sharp reversal over the latter part of Monday's session. Dealers attributed the reversal to some concerns over sovereign ratings. Fitch noted that slow growth in Europe and US had potential to negatively impact ratings while Moody's noted that the US sovereign rating could still be downgraded if rising debt issue was not addressed
- Looking ahead on Wednesday testimony by be given by Fed Chairman Bernanke and market participants will look for current intentions of the central bank

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Former Italy PM Monti: banking and fiscal crisis in euro zone is largely over; Italy is not faced with another election in 6 months
- (US) Fed's Evans (dove, FOMC voter): Would be open-minded about discussing possible adjustments to the pace of bond buying at the next several FOMC meetings; Economy is improving a lot at the moment but headwinds remain
- (CN) China may impose ultra-luxury vehicle tax - Chinese press
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Cannot say when correction in excessive yen strength ends; Will not comment on whether Yen correction has been completed - financial press; Hopes the market can find balance on exchange rate.
- (JP) JGB: Japan MoF sells 399.9B in 1.9% 40-yr bonds, bid to cover: 2.64x v 3.51x prior

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (EU) EU's Ashton in Brussels
- (ES) IMF mission to Madrid, Spain
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Q1 GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.0% prior
- 06:00 (DE) German Bundesbank Montly Report
- 06:00 (ES) Spain PM Rajoy
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell New Zero 2014 Bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2B in 6-month bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 06:30 (NO) Norway Central Bank Gov Olsen in Parliament
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases` (SMP); To drain 201.0B
- 07:15 (SE) Sweden Central Bank Gov Ingves in Parliament
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Sold Industrial Output M/M: -1.7%e v +9.2% prior; Y/Y: +3.0%e v -2.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Producer Prices M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.5%e v -0.6% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.4B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Chain Store Sales
- 09:00 (IT) Italy PM Letta in Parliament
- 09:00 (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan in Parliament
- 10:00 (US) Tsy Sec Lew testifies on FSOC in Senate
- 11:00 (UA) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase U$2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt
- 12:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BoC) Gov. Carney speech in Montreal
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Dudley in NY
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Caged Formal Job Creation M/M: 210Ke v 112.5K prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Apr Total Merchandise Trade Balance: -620.6Be v -362.4B prior; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -602.9Be v -922.0B prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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