Wednesday May 22, 2013 - 03:37:10 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 22-May-2013 -0336 GMT
Nifty (6114.10, -42.80) traded mostly in a range of 6100-6200 yesterday. The upsides may find resistance around 6200-6230 and the downside support comes in around 6100 to 6050. We may see the trading pattern in the Nifty to remain largely sideways with a weak bias for the next few days.
Dow Jones (15387.60, +52.30) was up 50 points yesterday. The Dow is heading close to the resistance around 15400. So there may be a chance of some pullback in case this level does not get breached on the upside. Supports come in at 15100-14900.
Dax (8472.20, +16.37) remained mostly sideways and may continue to do so for some more days. We expect the Dax to remain bullish as long as it remains above 8300-8225.
Nikkei (15558.80, +177.75) has opened higher today. The market is closely eyeing the outcome BOJ's two day policy meeting that ends today. Nikkei may continue to remain strong on the shorter time frame as long as it holds the support around 15200.
Shanghai (2304.80, -0.07) is absolutely trading flat. The Shanghai is in a short term uptrend and may see a move to 2325 in coming days. Supports come in at 2275.
Gold (1377) has seen a small bounce from 1340 levels. The price action is going to find strong resistance around 1420 and so the chances of going back to 1350 looks more likely.
Silver (22.48) has seen a bounce from a trend line support around 20.50. However this shallow upmove has seen resistance around the 23 and now may head lower back to 22.
Brent (103.70) is holding the trading range of 103 to 106 and may stay ranged for some more days.
Copper (3.35) is maintaining around the crucial level of 3.35. Breach above 3.35 may see it heading to 3.45 in coming days or else Copper may move back to the 3.30 mark.
The Euro (1.2925) has seen a move above 1.29 and now may look to target 1.30 which also happens to be the 200 day moving average for the Euro. Supports have shifted higher to 1.2880.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9696) is trading below the resistance around 0.9720. We may see the Dollar-Swiss trade in a range of 0.9750-0.9650 going forward.
The Dollar-Yen (102.531) is maintaining below 103. The market is closely eyeing the outcome BOJ's two day policy meeting that ends today. We feel the price action may remain ranged between 104 to 101.
The Euro-Yen (132.50) has moved back above 132 on the strength in Euro. The Euro Yen can attempt a move towards 133.50 if the Euro-USD sees a move to 1.30. Supports for the Euro-Yen comes in at 130.
The Pound (1.5160) has moved back below 1.5220 and now may trade between 1.5220 to 1.51 in coming days.
The Aussie (0.9798) has not been able to breach the trendline resistance around 0.9850. The Aussie may see a move lower to 0.97 in coming days if Gold moves lower from current levels.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2587) has seen a huge run up and has achieved our targets of 1.2560. However it is closing on a resistance around 1.2620. So we may see some pullback in the price. Supports come in at 1.2520.
Dollar-Rupee (55.40) saw a late surge and closed above the resistance of 55.30. Now the levels have shifted higher and we may see the Dollar-Rupee ranged between 55.60 to 55.10 going forward.
The US 10-Yr (1.92%) may look to target 2% in coming days.
The Germany-USA 10-Yr Spread (-0.53%) has seen the spread narrowing and that is positive for the Euro wwhich has also suropassed the 1.29 levels.
Despite the voltaity of the European Peripheral markets The Italian 10 yr (3.92%) and Spanish 10 yr (4.19%) are more or less stable.
5:07 GMT or 10:37 IST BOJ Meeting
...Previous - <0.10 %
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Existing Home Sales (Mln)
...Expected 4990 Mln ...Previous 4920 Mln
UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 2.40 % ...Previous 2.80 %
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