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Wednesday May 22, 2013 - 10:06:44 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK retail sales data comes in negative and well expectations; markets ahead Bernanke testimony for hints of QE tapering

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK retail sales data comes in negative and well expectations; markets ahead Bernanke testimony for hints of QE tapering
Wed, 22 May 2013 5:35 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) leaves policy unchanged (as expected). Upgrades economic outlook for 5th straight month
- Japan Apr trade deficit worse than expected but smallest deficit in three months
- Australia consumer confidence sees biggest drop in 17 months
- USD corrects from recent strength as markets might have gotten ahead of itself on the debate over tapering of QE
- UK retail sales come in negative and below expectations; cold weather blamed


***Economic Data***
- (HU) Hungary Mar Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0%e
- (DK) Denmark May Consumer Confidence: -2.6 v -2.5e
- (EU) ECB: 206M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 190M prior; 81.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 85.0B prior
- (NL) Netherlands May Consumer Confidence: -32 v -32e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Spending Y/Y: -0.3% v -2.2% prior
- (SE) Sweden Investment Survey: Industry investment seen at SEK53.7B in 2013
- (ZA) South Africa Apr CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Current Account: 25.9B v 14.6B prior; Current Account nsa: 24.8B v 11.5B prior
- (GR) Greece Mar Current Account: -1.3B v -0.7B prior
- (UK) Apr Public Finances (PSNCR): - v -4.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: v 8.5Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: v 8.8Be
- (UK) Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -1.4% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 1.8%e
- (UK) Apr Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: -1.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v +2.0%e
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Voted 6 to 3 to maintain Asset Purchase Target6 to 3 to maintain Asset Purchase Target at 375B and unanimous (9-0) to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%

- (MA) Malaysia Apr CPI Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK10B in 3-month Bills; Yield: 0.8677% v 0.8835% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 8-Day USD Liquidity Tenderat fixed 0.60% vs. $0.0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $1.3B in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.61% vs. $27M prior
- (DE) Germany sells 4.124B. in new 1.5% 2023 Bund; Avg Yield: 1.41% v 1.28% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.6x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,786
, DAX -0.30% at 8,447, CAC-40 -0.40% at 4,018, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 8,414, FTSE MIB flat at 17,420, SMI -0.10% at 8,311, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,667

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly lower, as investors await the later today comments from US Fed Chairman Bernanke. Spain's IBEX-35 and the French CAC-40 have underperformed. Mixed trading has been seen in the banking and mining sectors.

- UK movers [Optimal Payments +10% (raised outlook), Britvic +8% (H1 results above ests, positive outlook), Lloyds +2% (capital update); Kazakhmys -5.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Metro +5.5% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Lagardere +3% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Terna -2.5% (share placement)]
- Switzerland movers [Schmolz + Bickenbach +9% (raised outlook), Roche +1.5% (broker commentary); Julius Baer -1% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- UK PM Cameron:
Govt EU policy was not going to change in anyway. Euro Zone desperately needed change; Britain better off in a reformed EU
- German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated the view that Euro crisis was still there, but EU had made progress. He also reiterated that Germany leaving the Euro would be a 'catastrophe' and Germany was still seeking an EU Treaty change. Low ECB rates werea justifiable policy, but rates must not stay low for a long period. Lastly he saw no sign of a real estate bubble in Germany
- Bank of England (BOE) Voted 6 to 3 to maintain Asset Purchase Targe and unanimous (9-0) to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. Gov King and members Fisher and Miles again voted for an extra 25B in QE. The minority thought more QE would support growth and lower unemployment. The BOE majority thought policy setting was appropriate and "exceptionally accommodative". QE in May would have surprised markets; some members feared it would have created doubts about commitment of price stability. For others the case for more QE based on labor market slack and risk that euro zone weakness could push up Sterling. Was consulted on recent changes to the FLS, overall impact likely to be modest.
- EU's Rehn: Monetary policy likely to stay accommodative; must do whatever it take to fight unemployment
- Cyprus Central bank Governor Demetriades: Have faced an unprecedented crisis; lifting capital controls abruptly could cause problems
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) named two new deputy governors: Martin Floden and Cecilia Skings
- Italy Stats Agency ISTAT: Double-digit export growth seen through 2014
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision Press Conference noted that volatility in JGB remained high and would keep close watch. Yields were not expected to jump a lot nor expecting big impact from recent JGB yield rise. Rising US interest rates could affect JGB yields to some extent in globalized Market as US Economy was on solid recovery track, while Japan's economy yet to fully recover. He stressed that BOJ would respond to JGB market moves with flexibility in pace and frequency of debt purchases and market operations. He also noted that the impact of weak Yen had some time lag on exports and its domestic economy had NOT achieved strong and sustainable growth
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: wants BOJ to continue to steadily strive to reach inflation target as soon as possible
- China Vice Fin Min Zhu Guangyao: China could see a massive outflow of capital if the FED winds down its quantitative easing program
- China PBoC Research head Ji Zhihong commented that China strengthened its price tool uses and reiterated that interest rate liberalization was ongoing. Transforming China economic growth model from overly replying on investment and credit expansion would take tim
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) forecasted 2013 GDP growth at lower end of 6.2-6.6% range. It noted that inflation might reach 7.2-7.7% by end of 2013 on fuel price increase or seen at 5.5% without fuel price increase. 2013 Exports might hit $194-195B vs. $191B y/y

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD continued some of its correction from its recent strength after some dovish commentary late Tuesday from Fed members Bullard and Dudly ahead of today's testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Dealers noted that perhaps markets might have gotten ahead of itself on the debate over tapering of QE
- The GBP slumped 50pips following the release of Apr Retail sales data. GBP/USD pair went from 1.5130 to test 1.5070 in the aftermath of the weak data which was conveniently blamed on 'poor weather'.
- The JPY current remained near trend lows against the major pairs. The EUR/JPY cross was above the 133 handle, its highest reading since Jan 2010.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) According to a Morgan Stanley clients poll, 80% of respondents believe the ECB will cut rates again - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- (EU) EU Govt aide: A potential transaction tax (tobin, FTT) would damage markets, government bonds should be exempt from any levy
- (EU) EU regulators confirm they will cap bonuses of bankers making more than 500K - financial press
- (PT) The size of Portugal's debt is being masked by purchases by the Stabilization Fund of Social Security (FEFSS) at the direction of the govt- Economico
- (ES) Bank of Spain investigation finds that Spanish banks are hiding part of their customer's real nonperforming loans by refinancing them repeatedly - El Mundo
- (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Current Fed exit strategy is stale and requires revision, too soon to say when the Fed will adjust the pace of bond buying
- (US) Fed's Bullard: Inflation is low, cannot see a good case for tapering the bond purchases until low inflation is corrected - comments to reporters; A little concerned about how low inflation has become
- (JP) According to one poll, majority of central bank watchers calling for BOJ to start exit strategy once 2% rise in CPI is sustained for 3-6 months - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IS) Israel Apr Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.1% prior
- (AR) Argentina May Consumer Confidence: No est v 44.06 prior
- (PT) Portugal Mar Current Account: No est v -258.7M prior
- 06:00 (CH) SNB President Jordan in Frankfurt
- 06:00 (UK) May CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -17e v -25 prior; Selling Prices: 5e v 8 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr PPI M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.1% prior
- 06:00 (EU) Russia to sell 2019 OFZ Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (EU) EU Leaders hold Summit in Brussels
- 07:00 (UK) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 17th: No est v -7.3% prior
- 07:30 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar with German Fin Min Schaeuble in Berlin
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est 6.5% prior
- 08:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble in Berlin
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 0.8% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.1%e v 0.7% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium May Consumer Confidence: No est v -20 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Retail Sales: +0.3%e v -2.6% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Current Account: -$7.2Be v -$6.9B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $5.0Be v $5.7B prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Existing Home Sales: 4.99Me v 4.92M prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies on Economic Outlook

- 10:00 (US) Tsy Sec Lew testifies in House
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 12:00 (EU) ECB member Praet (Belgium) in Washington DC
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Fisher in Texas
- 14:00 (US) FOMC May Minutes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Trade Balance: No est v $510M prior
- 21:45 (CN) China May HSBC Flash PMI Manufacturing: 50.4e v 50.4 prior

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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