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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Improvement in Major European PMI data helps to offset a degree of risk aversion

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Improvement in Major European PMI data helps to offset a degree of risk aversion
Thu, 23 May 2013 5:33 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Fed Chairman struck a less dovish tone during his address of congressional committee.
- FOMC Minutes underscored a growing rift within the Fed: Many members needed more data before reducing purchases; Most prepared to adjust purchase pace up or down; a number willing to reduce purchases as soon as June
-ECB's Praet: ECB could expand range of tools used if needed to fight deflation
-China May HSBC Flash PMI Manufacturing registers its first contraction in seven months (49.6 v 50.4e)
-BOJ moved to contain volatility in the JGB market, announcing a 2T fund supplying operation after the 10-year yield moved to a multi-month high level above the 1%
- Nikkei225 Index ended session lower by 7.3% at 14,483 (largest decline since Mar 2011 earthquake and Tsunami)
- (JP) Japan investors sold net 804.4B in Foreign Bonds last week (**first sale in 4 weeks)
- Major European PMI data mixed; Manufacturing exceeds estimates while Services slightly misses for bith France and Germany
- Spain auction results not as solid as prior ones; higher borrowing costs coupled with lower bid-to-cover rations



***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Apr Industrial Production M/M: 2.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 1.6%e
- (SG) Singapore Apr CPI M/M: -1.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 3.0%e
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) May Monthly Economic Report: Raises economic assessment (5th straight month)
- (DE) Germany Mar Real Construction Orders nsa -9.2% y/y; YTD: -4.8% y/y
- (TH) Thailand Apr Customs Trade Balance: -$2.9B v -$3.0Be; Customs Exports Y/Y: 10.5% v 5.3%e; Customs Imports Y/Y: 8.9% v 5.3%e
- (FR) France May Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 45.5 v 44.7e (9-month high); PMI Services: 44.3 v 44.5e
- (DK) Denmark Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.4 v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v -4.4% prior
- (EU) ECB: 406.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 206M prior; 84.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 81.8B prior
- (DE) Germany May Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 49.0 v 48.5e; PMI Services: 49.8 v 50.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone May Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 47.8 v 47.0e; PMI Services: 47.5 v 47.2e; PMI Composite: 47.7 v 47.2e

- (TW) Taiwan Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.5%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -4.8% prior
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary Private Consumption: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Government Spending: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Exports: -0.8% v -1.0%e; Imports: -0.5% v -0.9%e
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary Total Business Investment Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8% prior
- (UK) Mar Index of Services M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; 3M/3M: 0.6% v 0.6%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell combined 3.0-4.0B in 2016, 2018 and 2026 Bono Bonds

- Sells in 3.3% April 2016 Bono; Avg Yield % v 2.247% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.34x prior; Max Yield % v 2.268% prior ; Tail: bps v 2.1bps
- Sells in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield % v 2.789% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.24x prior; Maximum Yield % v 2.807% prior; Tail: bps v 1.8bps prior
- Sells in 5.9% Jul 2026 Bono; Avg Yield % v 4.336% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.62x prior; Max Yield: % v 4.354% prior; Tail: bps v 1.8bps prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.0B vs. SEK1.0B indicated in 0.5% I/L 2017 Bonds; Yield: -0.0472% v +0.0910% prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF45.0B vs. HUF45B indicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.00% v 3.96% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.54x v 1.80x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -2% at 6,706,
DAX -2.6% at 8,306, CAC-40 -2.4% at 3,953, IBEX-35 -2.1% at 8,279, FTSE MIB -2.7% at 17,064, SMI -2.7% at 8,178, S&P 500 Futures -1% at 1,637

- Most equity markets in Europe have declined by over 2%, after strength in the Japanese yen and spike in JGB yields helped drive the Nikkei 225 lower by over 7%. Weaker than expected Chinese PMI data, Spain's bond auction and commentary out of the US Fed have also been cited for today's equity market weakness. European banks are broadly lower, led by shares of Barclays (-4%) and Deutsche Bank (-4.5%). Declines in commodity prices have weighed on the mining sector.

- UK movers [Salamander Energy -11% (drilling update), Halfords -10% (FY profits declined y/y, cautious outlook), St. James Place -9.5% (share placement), ARM Holdings -5.5% (broker commentary) Electrocomponents -3.5% (FY profits below ests), Glencore -3% (broker commentary, commodity price declines), Kingfisher -2.5% (broker commentary) SABMiller -1.5% (FY profits below ests)]
- Germany movers [Commerzbank -3.5% (broker commentary, rights trading ends tomorrow), Celesio -3.5% (broker commentary), Aixtron -3% (job cuts)]
- France movers [Soitec -5.5% (FY net loss widened), Areva -4% (attack on uranium mine in Niger), Casino -3.5% (broker commentary))
- Switzerland movers [Logitech +2.5% (dividend)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia -2% (S&P cut credit rating)]
- The Netherlands movers [SBM Offshore +2% (Q1 sales above ests), KPN +1% (M&A speculation)]

Speakers:
- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem r
eiterated view that Greece to receive more debt relief if targets met
- BOE's Broadbent commented during a CNBC interview that he did not think Fed Chairman Bernanke said anything remarkably different to what he said in the past; not at point where thinking about reversing stimulus. He added that he was not committed to any particular policy path
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Jansson commented that US gains would hopefully affect Europe positively as many factors indicate the US labor market will improve
- EU Barroso commented that Cyprus remained firmly anchored in EMU
- Cyprus Pres Anastadsiades: Cyprus to keep delivering on commitments
- Italy's Confindustria (employers group) Squinzi: Italy should adopt pro growth measures otherwise it will stay below 0.5% without measures
- Poland Central Bank' Bratkowski commented that the optimal benchmark rate was between 2.0-2.5% (**Note current Base rate is 3.00%) and that the central bank was clearly behind the curve. Poland in de facto recession as demand falls but saw signs that Polish economy to hit bottom in Q2 as export growth and consumer demand were stabilizing. He saw a July Base rate cut unless economy improved. 1-2 months of deflation was possible in H2 but no threat of any deflationary spiral
- Bank of Finland Deputy Gov Hakkarainen: Negative effects of low interest rates are significant
- IMF's Chopra: EU-wide bank supervisor much more complex and the ultimate goal should be supervisor for all banks. ECB might faces interest conflict as a supervisor
- Moody's comments on Hungary's banking sector that retail NPL to rise further due to economy and currency. Moody's noted that non-performing loans at 18% at end-March (record) was credit negative for the country
- Japan Econ Min Amari commented that the Govt was carefully watching stock market movements and added that weak China PMI data was the trigger for profit taking in Nikkei. Govt to work on growth strategy and fiscal consolidation
- Japan's Suga commented that Govt was closely watching movements in financial markets. He added that BOJ was responding appropriately to longer-term yields and did not think recent market moves could hamper Abenomics and no change in govt economic policy.
- Japan Deputy Fin Min Yamaguchi commented that Govt was watching stock market closely. Govt is committed to compiling fiscal discipline framework
- China Ministry of Finance (MOF): China to study new policies to support Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) development
- China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China will not adjust fuel prices for current cycle

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk aversion theme dominated the Asian session but sentiment calmed down a bit after major European PMI manufacturing data beat expectations
- The USD initially firmed up against the European currencies following Fed Chairman Bernanke testimony on Wed in which he admitted that there was potential for QE tapering. Weak China PMI Manufacturing data also helped to ramp up risk aversion sentiment and this appeared to weigh heavily on carry-related trades
- However, the mid-European morning saw a switch in flows in which carry-related pairs saw a ramp up in volatility especially in the JPY and CHF currencies. The JPY currency was sharply higher with offshore funds said to be liquidating speculative positions. The USD/JPY pair lost more than two big figures from over 103.50 to 101.45 in late Asia and dipped to test below 101 during the European session. The EUR/CHF cross moved back below 1.2415 after probing 2-year highs on Wed of 1.26
- The EUR/USD re-approached the 1.29 handle as soothing PMI data aided the Euro. ING noted that it saw less chance of a near-term ECB rate cut after PMI's improvement in the Euro area today.

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) Germany CDU official Kauder reiterated ECB should not print money - German Press
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: 1% inflation rate was a good thing for the Spain economy; not getting pressure from Germany about rescuing additional banks; Reiterated that Spain does not need more aid to rescue its banks.
- (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: FOMC has made it clear that it is prepared to either increase or reduce the pace of asset purchases - Congressional testimony on Economic Outlook
- A sharp rise in the US dollar could weigh on emerging market debt - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard; Notes the US dollar rose sharply and Latin American debt was sold off when former Fed chair Volcker tightened policy during the early 1980s.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PE) Peru Q1 GDP Y/Y: No est v 5.9% prior
- (PT) Portugal releases Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (BR) Brazil Treasury April Federal Debt Data
- (EU) EU's Barroso with Cyprus President in Brussels
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy
- 06:05 (US) Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to Sell RON600 Bonds
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 17th: No est v $520.4B prior
- 07:05 (FI) ECB member Liikanen (Finland) in Copenhagen
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Unemployment Rate: 5.6%e v 5.7% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Minutes of Rate Meeting
- 08:20 (IE) ECB member Honohan
- 08:30 (UK) USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 345Ke v 360K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.000Me v 3.009M prior
- 08:50 (FR) ECB member Coeure (France) in Copenhagen
- 08:58 (US) May Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 51.4e v 52.1 prior
- 09:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Press Conference on Interest Rates
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 GDP (Current $) Y/Y: 4.2%e v 3.9% prior
- 09:00 (US) Mar House Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior; Q/Q: No est v 1.4% prior
- 09:15 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 5.00%

- 09:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Netherlands PM Rutte to head German-Dutch Cabinet Talks
- 10:00 (US) Tsy official Brainard testifies to EU
- 10:00 (US) Apr New Home Sales M/M: 425Ke v 417K prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone May Advanced Consumer Confidence: -21.8e v -22.3 prior

- 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 10:15 I(IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni with France Fin Min Moscovici in Rome
- 10:30 IMF press conference
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2013, 2015 2017 Bills
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 11:00 (US) May Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: -4e v -5 prior
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 2-year, 5-year and 7-year refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.00-3.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (FR) ECB member Noyer (France) in Paris
- 12:45 (NL) German Chancellor Merkel to receive Dutch University Doctorate for Europe Policy
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 10-Year TIPS Reopening
- 13:30 (DE) ECB member Weidmann (Germany) in Paris
- 13:30 (US) President Obama on counter-terrorism
- 15:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi in London

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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