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Thursday May 23, 2013 - 20:51:12 GMT
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German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light
|German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light|
24 May 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR Far East: No Major Data. Europe: DE- IFO Survey. North America: US- Durable Goods, COT Report
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- Durable Goods
- As we predicted early Thursday markets spent the session digesting the short-term implications of the testimony by Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
- It is a fear of the "shock effect" on the market that has Bernanke trying to desensitize the markets to this change in policy well before it hits. The transition back to a more "normal" policy will be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and mostly jobs. In terms of trading, expect USD values to be heavily influenced by stock and bond markets and for stock and bond markets to be highly sensitive to economic data reports.
- The flash China (HSBC) PMI data fell below the key 50 expansion/contraction line, while German and French data were a touch stronger. The EZ flash PMI was better than expected but sill below the 50 expansion line..
- U.S. key Weekly Jobless claims returned to back below 350K in the month. The Markit flash PMI fell modestly, while New Home Sales were strong.
- The critical German IFO Survey is due on Friday.
||JGB 0.88% 0bp
||Bund 1.44% +2bp
||Europe Sharply Weaker|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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