Friday May 24, 2013 - 03:38:44 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 24-May-2013 -0337 GMT
Most of the global markets are around their short term supports. So we may see some bounce from current levels in most indices.
Nifty (5967.05, -127.45) was down 2% in trade yesterday. Breach below 5950 may see Nifty head lower to 5850 which will be a key level to watch. If Nifty manages to hold 5850 we may again see the index heading higher to 6200 in the medium term.
Dow Jones (15294.50, -12.67) recovered most of its losses after opening gap down. Unless the Dow breaks above 15400 we may see weakness which may see the Dow heading down to 15100 to 15000.
Dax (8351.98, -178.91) too saw a huge fall. Dax too has closed around the support zone of 8350 to 8300. If this support holds we may see the Dax again move towards the 8600 levels. But a break below 8350 to 8300 levels may see the index slide to 7900.
Nikkei (14,878.40, +394.46) after having fallen around 1000 point yesterday is seeing some rebound today. Presently the index is holding on to the supports of 14800. If this supports hold we may see the Nikkei heading higher towards the 15200.
Shanghai Composite (2281.85, 6.51) is also close to the supports of 2275 and may see a move to 2325 if 2275 holds. So we expect a trading band of 2325 to 2250 for the Shanghai going forward.
Gold (1392.50) has seen a rebound from 1350. If Gold manages to move above 1410 it can target 1460. Short terms supports seem likely around 1350.
Silver (22.42) like Gold is also trying to find a short term bottom around 22. However there is a strong resistance for Silver around 23 and that may not be easy to breach. The trend though is weaker than Gold.
Brent (102.47) is moving towards the resistance of 103. A breach above 103 would see the Brent move back to the earlier trading band of 103 to 106 or else it may move down to 99.
Copper (3.3250) has moved back above 3.32 and may see a move to 3.40. Good supports come in around 3.25.
The Euro (1.2917) is back above 1.29 after having fallen to 1.2810 levels. Now the Euro may remain ranged between 1.28 to 1.30 with increased volatility.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9680) saw huge gyration in trade and has finally fallen below 0.97. Below 0.9720 we may see Dollar-Swiss head lower to 0.96.
The Dollar-Yen (102.214) and Euro-Yen (132.05) have moved higher after the Yen weakened on rally in Nikkei.
The Dollar-Yen may remained ranged for now between 103 to 101. Euro-Yen has move back above 132 and like Dollar-Yen may remain in a band of 133.l50 to 131.
The Pound (1.5080) has broken below 1.51 and may see heading lower to 1.50 mark. The downmove can be negated if Pound closes above 1.5120.
The Aussie (0.96741) has seen a bounce from the 0.96 levels. It may move upto to 0.98 if Gold too remains supportive and moves above 1400.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2653) is heading close to a very strong supply area around 1.27. Unable to breach 1.27 may see USD-SGD head lower to 1.26.
Dollar-Rupee (55.59) remained highly volatile yesterday. We may see the Dollar-rupee trade between 56.00 to 55.40 in the coming days.
The US 10-Yr (2.02%) seems sustaining above the 2.00% mark on indications of sustained economic growth.
The Germany-USA 10-Yr Spread (-0.58%) may give some strength to the Euro.
The Japanese-10yr-yield (0.87%) has steadied somewhat after yesterday's fall in Nikkei.
8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 104.60 ...Previous 104.40
8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Situations
...Expected 107.10 ...Previous 107.20
8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 102.00 ...Previous 101.60
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 1.80 % ...Previous -5.72 %
...Actual 0.30 % ...Previous 0.30 %
US New Home Sales
...Actual 454 K ...Previous 444K
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