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Friday May 24, 2013 - 08:53:48 GMT
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German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light
|German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light|
24 May 2013 10:00 gmt
CALENDAR North America: US- Durable Goods, COT Report
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Durable Goods
- The critical German IFO Survey came in stronger than predicted for May and has given the EURUSD a lift. It might be that the data are flattening (Chart on Forex forum).
- There is no reason why markets Friday should not spend a pre-holiday session continuing to digest the short-term implications of the testimony by Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
- It is a fear of the "shock effect" on the market that has Bernanke trying to desensitize the markets to this change in policy well before it hits. The transition back to a more "normal" policy will be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and mostly jobs. In terms of trading, expect USD values to be heavily influenced by stock and bond markets and for stock and bond markets to be highly sensitive to economic data reports.
- U.S. Durable Goods orders for April today are seen better vs. March. This tends to be a volatile data survey.
||JGB 0.83% -2bp
||Asia Close Mixed|
||Bund 1.46% +2bp
||Europe Currently Higher|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.
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