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Friday May 24, 2013 - 10:03:52 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Core European data sooths risk aversion concerns and trims calls for more ECB rate cuts; German IGO sees significant improvement in Q2 GDP EU Market Update: Core European data sooths risk aversion concerns and trims calls for more ECB rate cuts; German IGO sees significant improvement in Q2 GDP
Fri, 24 May 2013 5:37 AM EST

- ECB's Draghi: Eurozone was a more stable union than it was a year ago and now saw signs of tangible improvement in lending and financial conditions; Europe needs a more European UK just as UK needs more "British Europe - London speech
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras stated that about 2/3 of the Greek adjustment process has been completed
- Moody's affirms Switzerland Aaa sovereign rating; outlook Stable
- Japanese officials continue to address recent volatility; BOJ gov Kuroda reiterated no particular targets for equities and forex and wanted to avoid volatility in bond market as much as possible
- Core European data sooths risk aversion concerns; German GFK confidence survey at highest level since 2007
- German IFO Economist sees Q2 GDP 'significantly better' sequentially

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.4%e; GDP wda Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e
- (DE) Germany Q1 Domestic Demand: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Government Spending: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Private Consumption: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Capital Investment: -1.5% v -1.2%e; Construction Investment:-2.1% v -1.2%e; Exports: -1.8% v -0.6%e; Imports: -2.1% v -0.9%e
- (US) Germany Jun GFK Consumer Confidence: 6.5 v 6.2e; highest since Sept 2007
- (FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.6% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.5% v 0.0% prior
- (FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: +0.4% v -1.7% prior
- (FR) France May Business Confidence: 92 v 89e; Production Outlook Indicator: -47 v -46e; Own-Company Production Outlook: -2 v -2 prior
- (CZ) Czech May Business Confidence: +0.4 v -0.7 prior; Consumer Confidence: -19.8 8 (best reading in two years ) v -23.prior; Composite: -3.6 v -5.3 prior
- (ES) Spain Apr Producer Prices M/M: -1.1% v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.5% v 0.0% prior
- (AT) Austria Mar Industrial Production M/M: -1.9% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v +1.4% prior
- (EU) ECB: 497M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 406M prior; 90.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 84.5B prior
- (SE) Sweden May Consumer Confidence: 3.6v 6.5e; Manufacturing Confidence:-15 v -8e prior; Economic Tendency Survey: 91.9 v 94.5e
- (AT) Austria Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1% prelim
- (DE) Germany May IFO Business Climate: 105.7 v 104.4e; Current Assessment: 110.0 v 107.2e; Expectations Survey: 101.6 v 101.6e
- (IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence: 85.9 v 86.9e
- PL) Poland Apr Unemployment Rate: 14.0% v 13.9%e
- (PL) Poland Apr Retail Sales M/M: -2.7% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v +1.1%e
- (TW) Taiwan Q1 Final GDP Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.5%e
- (TW) Taiwan Apr M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.8% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.7% v 6.0% prior
- (UK) Apr BBA Loans for House Purchase: 32.2K v 32.8Ke
- (IT) Italy Apr Hourly Wages M/M: 0.3% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
- (IC) Iceland Apr Wage Index M/M: 0.2% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.5% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B in 2020, 2025, 2032 and 2042 bonds


FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,665,
DAX -0.40% at 8,314, CAC-40 flat at 3,967, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,300, FTSE MIB flat at 17,001, SMI +0.30% at 8,191, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,644

- Equity markets in Europe are mixed, as the Nikkei 225 closed higher after another volatile trading session. In terms of fundamental data, business confidence data out of Germany and France exceeded market expectations. European banks are trading mixed. Deutsche Bank has lagged, as the company is trading ex-dividend. Resource-related companies are trading mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices.

- UK movers [Computacenter +1.5% (special dividend); BT -1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Salzgitter -2% (ex-dividend), Lanxess -1.5% (ex-dividend), Deutsche Bank -1% (ex-dividend), Daimler -0.50% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Generali +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [TomTom +2% (renewed takeover speculation)]

- Fed's Bullard (moderate, FOMC voter) appeared on CNBC-Europe stated that he would like to see reassurances that inflation was moving more towards the Fed's target before any tapering was initiated
and that one wildcard in the US data was the low inflation, inflation is well below target. He did note that the US economy was improving, labor market improving, expected further improvement. He put less weight on the sequester than other economists
- BOE's Fisher commented that BoE must continue to support the economy and that another rate cut would probably not boost demand. Evidence showed QE was not becoming less effective and favored slow pace of QE that would depend on dats. Higher bank capital should not restrict lending and growth in productivity should help control inflation. Fiscal tightening would continue to weigh on output. Negative rates would not necessarily do much to boost growth at the moment, might even be perverse
- BOE's Haldane: Financial system still not 'out of the woods'; Banks still lending too little to real economy
- German IFO Economist Wohlrabe commented that he expected Germany's Q2 GDP to rise significantly from Q1 level. Construction activity had picked up "immensely" in May, backorders were being dealt with currently. Business climate index rise was due to strong domestic economy and good exports. Recent ECB rate cut had only a psychological effect on Germany, if at all
- EU's Barnier: EU to publish financial supervisor overhaul report by the end of 2013
- Denmark Central Bank Dep Gov Callesen commented that experience showed negative rates could work well and prepared market carefully before negative rates. Negative rates have not moved through to bank clients
- Czech Fin Min Kalousek will propose a budget amendment assuming higher spending if May data shows tax collection remains strong
- Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble said to have concerns about the capital tax proposal which is supported by the opposition SPD party (**Note: SPD officials favored the reintroduction of a capital tax which would help poor individuals)
- India Central Bank (RBI) stated that it planned to allow exports and importers to cancel and rebook up to 50% of total hedged exposures (from 25% prior)
- China State Council reiterated its pledge to push forward rate liberalization and improve exchange rate forming system

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The Japanese markets continued with its volatility as various Japanese govt officials defended current policies. The Niikei225 Index did manage to eek out gains for the session of under 1%. The JPY currency followed the equity price action. The USD/JPY tried to initially take out Thursday low of 100.84 but the pair drifted upwards the upper end of the 101 handle.
- Euro was at session highs after better German IFO data beat expectations which caused several analysts revise earlier calls for another ECB rate cut. The pair tested 1.2990 before retracing its gains. The pair was at 1.2960 just ahead of the NY morning.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann: It cannot be a policy goal to make sure that rates are the same everywhere
- (EU) Netherlands PM Rutte: Forecasting deficit to reach 3%/GDP in 2014; not expecting to ask for more time to reach targets
- (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici: 75% top tax rate for high income earners to be part of 2014 budget- Les Echoes

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang in Switzerland
- 06:00 (DE) ECB member Weidmann in Paris
- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 113.9 prior
- 07:30 (FI) Finland PM Katainen with BOE Gov King participate in debate
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 17th: No est v $293.7B prior
(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) to announce bonds on Thursday, May 30th
- 08:30 (PT) ECB member Constancio (Portugal) in Brussels
- 08:30 (US) Apr Durable Goods Orders: +1.5%e v -5.8% prior (revised from -5.7%); Durables Ex Transportation: +0.5%e v -1.5% prior (revised from -1.4%); Capital Goods Orders Non-defense, Ex-Aircraft: 0.5%e v 0.9% (revised from 0.2%); Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense, Ex-Aircraft: -0.5%e v 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%); Durables Ex-Defense: No est v -4.7% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium May Business Confidence: -14.0e v -14.7 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Unemployment Rate: 4.7%e v 4.5% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr PPI M/M: No est v -2.9% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.427T prior; M/M: No est v 1.8% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.246T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) President Obama at Annapolis
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 Current Account: -$4.5M v -$6.5B prior
- 11:45 (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn at Brussels Fin. Reg
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 0.2% prior


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