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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US TAPERING DRAWS NEARER?

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 24 MAY 2013

 

US TAPERING DRAWS NEARER?

• Asset markets: the start of a protracted turn lower or a pause for breathe?

• Bernanke ties prospects for tapering on near-term data

• Lloyds Business Barometer watched for further sign of improving UK confidence

 

It has been a roller-coaster week for global asset markets, as concerns over the US monetary policy outlook and weak data in China buffeted sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei dropped by over a 1000 points (7%) on Thursday, bringing an abrupt halt

to a stellar rally that had pushed the index up over 80% (to a peak of 15627) since last November. Other major benchmark equity indices also fell back sharply, having reached new record or multi-year highs earlier in the week.

 

In the bond market, yields generally rose, while risk currencies came under pressure. By the end of the week, 10-yr Treasury yields were trading around 6bp higher, re-testing mid-March’s high just above 2%. Similar rises in yield were seen in the UK, with the 10-yr benchmark closing at 1.93%. Amid heightened volatility, sterling ended lower across the board, weighed down by sizeable drops in UK April inflation (2.4%) and retail sales (- 1.3%). At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading just above 1.50 and GBP/EUR around 1.1650.

 

The abrupt shift in market sentiment followed Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday and news that China’s ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI had fallen to a 7-month low. The prospect that the world’s largest economy may start to restrict liquidity support at the same time as the world’s second largest economy may be slowing proved a toxic combination for investors - especially in Asia.

 

It remains to be seen whether this marks the start of a more protracted turn for asset markets or just a healthy correction. But on our take of recent developments, market reaction looks overdone. Chairman Bernanke’s comments were more balanced than the negative headlines suggested, while the impact of the Chinese PMI seems disproportionate. Nevertheless, it serves to highlight just how febrile market sentiment has become

 

The coming week should offer some respite. There are bank holiday weekends in the US and UK, and little in the way of key data or events. With a decision on tapering crucially dependent on the prospects for economic activity and the labour market over the coming months, the personal spending, Chicago PMI, pending home sales and consumer confidence surveys will allnbe read closely for inferences about Q2 growth. Overall, we doubt these data will materially change the picture, with the following week’s more important non-farm payroll & ISM reports entering the market’s radar. In the UK, the optimism that greeted the initial release of the 0.3% rise in UK Q1 GDP has since

been tempered somewhat by the revelation that the improvement was largely due to inventories, with growth remaining highly unbalanced (business investment fell 0.4% in Q1 and the trade deficit widened). The sharp drop in April retail sales suggests Q2 got off to a weaker start. Nevertheless, business confidence has shown an encouraging improvement. Our latest Business Barometer (Thursday) will reveal whether this was sustained in May. Over the course of the week, M4, CBI distributive trades and GfK consumerconfidence are also released (see back page).

 

Elsewhere, Japan’s manufacturing PMI for May will attract attention, as markets continue to g auge the success of the government’s stimulus efforts. Further signs that Japan is entering a robust upswing should help soothe nerves. In the euro area, region-wide inflation and unemployment data are due for May. Euro area inflation dropped back to a 3-yr low of 1.2% in April, while the unemployment rate hit a new record high of 12.1%. The coming week’s figures are expected to be little changed, and unlikely to prompt much market reaction given recent national data.

 

 

 

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 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

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