Monday May 27, 2013 - 03:27:48 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 27-May-2013 -0325 GMT
Most of the equity markets and commodities are around short term supports and seem precariously poised for now. We have to see whether the supports hold in coming days.
Nifty (5983, +16.50) has closed last week on a bearish note and may be in danger of moving down to 5880 to 5850 on breaking below 5950.
Dow Jones (15303.10, +8.60) has held on to the medium term supports around 15200 on the daily charts. If 15200 hold we may see 15600 else the Dow may slip to 14800.
Dax (8305.32, -46.66) too is around the medium term supports around 8300-8270. Breach below the support zone may see the index down to 8100 or else we may the market move higher to 8500 or thereabout.
Nikkei (14187.00, -425.48) has seen a big fall. However it is not far away from the medium term support around 14000. We have to see whether this support holds.
Shanghai (2298.51, +10.42) has formed a short term bottom and looks more likely to aim higher. However for the next few days we may see the trading range between 2325 to 2275 to hold.
Gold (1390) and Silver (22.52) look like forming a short term bottom. Till then we may see these precious metals remain mostly sideways. Gold may remain ranged between 1350 to 1420 and Silver can stay between 22 to 23 for now.
Brent (102.17) is currently holding on to the supports of 102 and may remain sideways till 104 is breached on the upside. Support comes in at 101.
Copper (3.30) will remain ranged between 3.25 to 3.35 in coming days.
The Euro (1.29429) needs to break past 1.3010 levels in order to move higher. But till that happen we may see the Euro remain ranged between 1.30 to 1.28.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9625) has retraced to the supports of 0.96 after having seen a big upmove. If the support of 0.96 holds we may move up to 0.9720 but breach of 0.96 may see the market head lower to 0.95.
The Dollar-Yen (101.30) and Euro-Yen (130.905) have moved lower on Yen's strength. But both currency pairs are around short term supports. So if the Dollar-Yen holds 101 we may see it moving higher to 103. Dollar-Euro too has strong supports at 130. Much depends on how the Nikkei will pan out in coming days.
The Pound (1.5125) may see a move to 1.52 mark if manages to hold 1.51 levels. The Pound too like the Euro seems to be in the process of forming a short term bottom.
The Aussie (0.9630) has seen a bounce from the 0.96 levels. It may move up to 0.98 if Gold remains supportive and moves above 1400. Much depends on the move of Gold going forward.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2640) has not been able to breach above the 1.27 levels. Now we may see the USD-SGD to come down to 1.26 in coming days.
Dollar-Rupee (55.63) remained highly volatile on Friday but traded with a strong bias. We may expect the strength in Dollar to keep Dollar-Rupee higher in coming days. A range between 56.00 to 55.30 looks more likely to hold for now.
US-10 yr (2.01) may see a move to 2.20% on signs of economic recovery.
German-US-10 yr spread (-0.58) is holding higher above -0.60% but has chance of falling further which may not be good for the Euro.
Japanese-10y (0.81) has seen a big fall after the Nikkei collapsed. However we expect the yields to stabilize around 0.80 % going forward.
No major data release today.
GER IFO Business Climate
...Actual 105.70 ...Previous 104.40
GER IFO Business Situations
...Actual 110.00 ...Previous 107.30
GER IFO Business Expectations
...Actual 101.60 ...Previous 101.60
US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual 3.32 % ...Previous -6.92 %
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