Tuesday May 28, 2013 - 03:28:16 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 28-May-2013 -0326 GMT
Most of the equity markets are around key support levels. Some indices like the Dax and the Nifty have seen smart up move from the supports. We have to see whether this percolates into all other markets.
Nifty (6083.15, +99.60) may see a move higher to 6200 as long as 5950 is held. We may expect volatility to remain high as we approach F&O expiry.
The Dow Jones was closed on account of Memorial Day.
Dax (8383.30, +77.98) saw a good move from the supports around 8250. As long as the supports hold we may see the Dax move higher to 8500 in a few days.
Nikkei (14237.80, +95.16) has bounced from a very critical medium term support around 14100. We expect the uptrend to remain intact as long as 14100 hold.
Shanghai (2287.55, -5.29) may remain sideways for a day or two. The shorter term trend is up and we view the index to touch 2325 in coming days. Supports come in at 2275.
Gold (1389) and Silver (22.50) are in the process of forming a bottom. So we may see the precious metals remain mostly sideways and ranged for now.
Gold may remain ranged between 1400 to 1350 and Silver may see a range between 22.80 to 22.20.
Brent (102.66) is holding on to the supports of 102 and may remain sideways till 104 get breached on the upside.
Copper (3.27) will remain ranged between 3.25 to 3.35 in coming days.
The Euro (1.29) needs to break past 1.3010 levels in order to move higher. But till that happen we may see the Euro remain ranged between 1.30 to 1.28.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9623) may remain ranged between 0.9720 to 0.9600 in coming days.
The Dollar-Yen (101.86) is back above the supports of 101. If the Nikkei remains cheerful then the Dollar-Yen may move back to 103 once again.
Euro-Yen (131.396) has also moved back above 131 on strength in Nikkei and now may see a move to 133 in coming days.
The Pound (1.50843) looks more likely to remain ranged between 1.5200 to 1.5050 for now.
The Aussie (0.9624) has seen a bounce from the 0.96 levels. It may move up to 0.98 if Gold remains supportive and moves above 1400. However Gold looks more likely to remain sideways and that may keep the Aussie quiet in coming days.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2642) has not been able to breach above the 1.27 levels. Now we may see the USD-SGD to come down and remain around 1.26 in coming days.
Dollar-Rupee (55.57) may remain sideways for now between 55.80 to 55.10. We expect the volatility to remain high in coming days.
US-10 yr (2.04) may see a move to 2.20% on signs of economic recovery.
Japanese-10y (0.83) has seen a move higher and may look to stabilize around 0.80.
Indian-10 yr (7.12) is hovering around the lowest level in 3 years. The market is expecting RBI to come up with some policy actions as inflation has eased out for now.
13:00 GMT or 18:30 IST US Case Schiller
...Expected 10.20 % ...Previous 9.36 %
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Cons Conf
...Expected 70.70 ...Previous 68.10
No major data release yesterday.
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