Wednesday May 29, 2013 - 03:36:15 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 29-May-2013 -0334 GMT
Nifty (6111.25, +28.10) may remain volatile as we near the F&O expiry. We expect the Nifty to remain upbeat and target 6200 and beyond as long as 5950 holds.
Dow Jones (15409.40, +106.29) is not far away from a strong channel resistance around 15600. Unable to breach this level can see the Dow come down to 15100.
Dax (8480.87, +97.57) has seen a good bounce from the supports of 8250 levels. Now we may see the market target 8700 odd levels in coming days.
Nikkei (14327.60, +15.66) is holding the support around 14100 for now. We expect the uptrend to remain intact as long as 14100 hold.
Shanghai (2325.67, 4.41) may see this rally move higher to 2375 where it will likely face strong resistance. Supports come in at 2300.
Gold (1385.50) may continue to remain range bound between 1420 to 1350 for now.
Silver (22.28) is in a downtrend and may look to stay ranged between 22.80 to 22.00.
Brent (104.14) has moved above the resistance above 104. If Brent manages to hold above 104 we may see a move to 106 and beyond.
Copper (3.31) may remain ranged between 3.35 to 3.25 in coming days. We feel Copper to face strong supply around the 3.35 levels.
The Euro (1.2860) has slipped below 1.29 and now may see a move down to 1.28. We expect the broader range of 1.30 to 1.28 to hold for the Euro.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9745) has moved back above the resistance of 0.9720 and may target 0.99 in coming days.
The Dollar-Yen (102.15) is back above the supports of 101. If the Nikkei remains cheerful then the Dollar-Yen may move back to 103 once again.
Euro-Yen (131.355) has not been able to move higher as the Euro (1.2860) has weakened below 1.29. We expect the Euro-yen to remain sideways between 133 to 130 in coming days.
The Pound (1.5035) is approaching a minor support around 1.50. Breach below 1.50 may see it move much lower to 1.48 levels. We have to see whether the support at 1.50 hold in coming days.
The Aussie (0.9568) has weakened further and broken below 0.96. Now the Aussie may move lower to 0.94 and below.
Dollar-Rupee (55.9550) can see a move higher 56.20-40. But, if the Dollar falls back from 56.00-10, we could have a Double Top. Today's price action is going to be important to decide whether the Dollar continues moving higher or not.
US-10 yr (2.15) has seen a big move and now seems heading towards our target of 2.20% from where it may face some resistance.
Japanese-10y (0.91) has seen a sharp upmove above 0.90%
German-US-10 yr Spread (-0.65%) has moved lower and that may take the Euro (1.286) down to 1.28.
13:00 GMT or 18:30 IST BOC Meeting
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %
US Case Schiller
...Actual 10.9 % ...Previous 9.4 %
US Cons Conf
...Actual 76.2 ...Previous 69.0
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