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Wednesday May 29, 2013 - 10:11:03 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOJ says nothing new after meeting with market participants; EU prepared to make policy recommendations; German unemployment rises for 3rd straight month

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOJ says nothing new after meeting with market participants; EU prepared to make policy recommendations; German unemployment rises for 3rd straight month
Wed, 29 May 2013 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- AUD currency at fresh trend lows amid macro fund selling due to rising concerns over the outlook in Australia
- US yields higher after better US data reinforces view that QE program could be reduced at one of the next few meetings; Conference Board Survey yesterday appeared to have been a catalyst for higher interest rates everywhere
- IMF lowers GDP outlook for China for both 2013-14 period
- German Unemployment rises for the third straight month
- Bank of Canada Gov Carney holds his last policy decision today. No policy changes are expected,


***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Apr UBS Consumption Indicator: No est v 1.25 prior
- (DE) Germany Apr ILO Employment: 41.788M v 41.782M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.4% prior
- (HU) Hungary Apr Unemployment Rate: 11.0% v 11.6%e; lowest reading since Dec 2012
- (DE) Germany May CPI Saxony M/M: +0.5% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.3% prior

- (ES) Spain Apr Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.9% v -6.4%e; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.6% v -10.9% prior
- (EU) ECB: 279M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 236M prior; 82.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 86.8B prior
- (AT) Austria Apr Producer Price Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -0.6% prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank cut Benchmark Interest Rate by 25bps to 2.50%, as expected
- (SE) Sweden Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.4%e
- (SE) Sweden Apr Household Lending Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.6%e
- (DE) Germany May Unemployment Change: +21K v +5Ke (third straight monthly rise); Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.9%e
- (PL) Poland Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e

- (DE) Germany May CPI Brandenburg M/M: +0.4% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.0% prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI Bavaria M/M: +0.4% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.2% prior
- (IT) Italy May Business Confidence: 88.5 v 88.1e; Economic Sentiment: 79.8 v 74.9 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.2% v 2.9%e; M3 Three-month Avg: 3.0% v 2.9%e

- (EU) Euro Area Apr Conference Board Leading Index: 106.5, +0.1% v -0.2% prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI North Rhine-Westphalia M/M: +0.4% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.2% prior
- (EU) OECD May Economic Outlook: cuts global and member GDP growth forecasts
- (IS) Iceland May CPI M/M: -0.1 v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) EFSF opened its book to sell 2017 bond; guidance seen at +4bps over mid-swaps; Order book at over 4.0B
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B in 1.5% 2023 Bonds, avg yield 1.9062% v 1.6070% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 6-Day USD Liquidity Tender at 0.62% vs. $0.0M prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 5.0B vs. 8.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.538% v 0.503% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.58x v 1.40x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 5.8B in 3-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 7.0Be
- (UK) DMO sold 1.75B in 4.75% 2015 Gilts in mini tender; Avg Yield: 0.375% v 1.687% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.06x v 1.97x prior; Tail: bps v 0.4bps prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -1.2% at 6,680,
DAX -1% at 8,396, CAC-40 -1% at 4,008, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 8,475, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 17,450, SMI -1.4% at 8,108, S&P 500 Futures -0.40% at 1,648

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly lower, as traders focus on the recent rise in core sovereign bond yields (most notably US Treasury yields). Switzerland's SMI index has underperformed, amid the gains seen in the Franc currency. European banks are broadly lower, led by declines in shares of banks in Switzerland. The decline in copper and oil prices has weighed on shares of resource-related companies.

- UK movers [Topps Tiles -2% (H1 profit declined), De La Rue -1% (FY sales below ests)]
- Germany movers [Loewe +6% (renewed takeover speculation), Celesio +1.5% (broker commentary); Deutsche Wohnen -3% (ex-dividend), Commerzbank -1.5% (speculation firm could be removed from DAX), Wacker Neuson -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
- France movers [Peugeot -2% (capital raise speculation)]
- Switzerland movers [UBS -2 % (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- OECD May Economic Outlook cuts global and member GDP growth forecasts. It now saw global GDP growth outlook to 3.1% from 3.4% prior Nov forecasts
and cut 2013 GDP outlook for members to 1.2% from 1.4% prior Nov forecasts. The OECD commented that ECB should cut deposit rate (**Note: implies rates going into negative territory) and should consider QE-style measures to pull Euro zone out of a dire situation. It saw risk of increase in Japan long-term rates if the govt delayed fiscal consolidation. Japan needed a credible plan to achieve a primary surplus, needed a higher sales tax. Fed policy should remain accommodative but vigilant
- BoJ official commented excessive volatility in bond market was not desirable and wanted to hear opinions on how to lower volatility. It noted that many participants asked central bank to buy JGBs more often and in smaller amounts and that the central bank and
should consider offering funds in market operations beyond 1 year. Many participants said BoJ should avoid buying JGBs on days when the MoF auctions JGBs. No participants asked BoJ to announce dates and amounts in advance. It hoped to announce JGB purchase schedule for June sometime on Thursday (May 30th). BOJ was prepared to conduct 10 purchases a month (vs 8 currently)
- ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) said to resist additional non-standard measures
- ECB's Noyer (France) commented that the French banking sector should cut their exposure to the periphery and that the sector's liquidity was improving. He noted that the six main banks in France to reach a 9% core Tier 1 ratio this year
- Bank of Spain (BOS) May monthly Economic Bulletin noted that Q2 data pointed to new product decline. It saw less unfavorable tone in labor market in April and certain improvement in qualitative indicators, especially on the demand side
- Spain Treasury chief de Mesa stated that deficit cuts boosted market confidence
Under perception of Spain's economy was improving. Funding costs have declined
- Portugal Fin Min Gaspar: Have worked with the Troika to complete the 7th review
- Greece Central Bank Provopoulos: Greece gradually being restored in its monetary policy report and saw 2013 GDP contracting between 4.6%, and still saw an economic recovery for 2014.
- EU Commission said that Italy can leave excessive deficit procedure ahead of its official release of recommendations today
- Hungary Central bank Gov Matolcsy announced that it had expanded its funding for growth plan to HUF750B from HUF500B after retail banks applied for more funds than offered. He noted that it could supply nearly all banks
- Czech Central Bank Gov Simor: Sees 2019 as the earliest possible Euro adoption date
- Poland Central Bank's Chojna-Duch (dove) commented that Polish data showed GDP slowed to a crawl but no recession was seen.
Data did not change the 'big picture'. Poland 2013 GDP growth seen at 1.0% and that the central bank was most interested in inflation. She saw possible uptick in inflation in Oct-Nov period. Poland to pursue conventional monetary policy and she favored a less radical approach to rate cuts and added it might need to stop the easing cycle by July
- Thailand Central Bank commented after its decision to cut its benchmark rate by another 25bps to 2.50%. It noted that today's decision was unanimous for 25bps cut (**Note Govt had sought a steeper cut) but was ready to act on monetary policy if necessary. It saw lower inflation pressure and had measures to handle THB currency (Baht) if continued instability drove more flows to baht
- Thailand Fin Min Kittiratt: Rate cut too little too late; better not to have done move at all
- According to the minutes of the latest South Korea Central Bank (BOK) policy meeting, the vote to cut rates was 6-1 with one member against the cut and arguing that economy is on the mend.
- North Korea said to have called for replacing Korean War armistice with a formal peace treaty to help restore stability on the peninsula
- Chile Gov Min: Copper Production to rise by almost 50% by 2020

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The focus in Europe remained on the rise in bond yields. The US 10-year was at 13-month highs at 2.22% as the session began initially helping the greenback to a firmer tone. However, the euro fought back hard to maintain a steady tone despite a stronger than expected rise in the overall German jobless figure which highlighted that the weakness in growth had also hit the mighty German economy. Dealers however noted that, unemployment was a lagging indicator and confidence indicators seem to be stabilizing again. The EUR/USD also seemed to benefit from reports that several ECB members (Asmussen and Mersch) were resisting additional non-standard measures
- The JPY was firmer as the session wore on as BOJ stated nothing new after meeting with market participant in seeking ways to curb bond market volatility. The 10-year JGB yield was above 0.92% throughout todays session. The USD/JPY hovered around the 101.75 area after testing above 102.50 during the Asian session
- SEK currency was firmer after better Swedish GDP data; cross trades below 8.59
- AUD/USD declined to $0.9550 following worse than expected construction work data in the Asian session

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) There are concerns that a Tobin tax could lead to lower levels of liquidity in sovereign bond markets - FT
- (EU) ECB's Noyer: Not convinced that negative interest rates would be needed, the issue itself is very delicate
- (EU) Spain PM Rajoy reiterates that the EU should approve more access for small firms to lending with a more active role from the EIB; Calls on the EIB lending capacity to be increased; funds for the EIB should be raised to 30B from 10B per year now. Spanish government is sticking to its deficit targets; commitment to its public deficit is something we should respect above all
- (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Notes her CDU party will be campaigning on a strong Euro
- (CH) Switzerland could pay up to $10B to settle tax matter with US officials - NYT; Prior reports suggested that both sides were close to an agreement and that US officials could seek about $5B to settle.
- (UK) BoE's Tucker: The MPC has been clear on the short-term trade off between growth and inflation
- (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: stable financial system is important; Global economy has accumulated wisdom from past crisis's but not yet completely shaken off effects of financial crisis.
- (CN) IMF First Deputy Managing Director Lipton cut its China GDP growth outlook for both 2013 and 2014 period. It cut 2013 GDP forecast to 7.75% from 8.0% prior Apr view and cut 2014 GDP forecast to 7.75% from 8.2% prior Apr view. IMF China Inflation rate at 3% in 2013.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB20B in 2018 OFZ Bonds; yield guidance seen between 6.31-6.36%
- (EU) European Union Competitiveness Council Meeting
- (EU) EU Makes Annual Economic Policy Recommendations
- (DE) Germany May CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior
- (DE) Germany May CPI Hesse M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise SELIC Target by 25bps to 7.75%
- 06:00 (UK) BOE's Haldane
- 06:00 (UK) May CBI Industrial Reported Sales: +3e v -1 prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2019 and 2023 Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications: No est v -9.8% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 7.3% prior
- 07:45 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Lithuania PM Butkevicius
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (DE) Germany May Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: +0.2%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.4% prior; 4 quarters accumulated: No est v 0.9% prior
- 08:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy at EuroStat Conference
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Avg Weekly Earnings: No est v 3.1% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 10:00 (PT) Portugal Parliament debate on austerity
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $70B in 52-Week Bills
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $70B in 4-Week Bills

- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Currency Flows
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Rosengren speaks on Economy in Minneapolis
- 13:00 (US) Former Fed Chairman Volcker speaks in New York
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Central Govt Budget (BRL): 11.1Be v 0.3B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 19.4% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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