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Thursday May 30, 2013 - 10:28:54 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Europe exhibits calm despite Nikkei sell-off; Swiss Q1 GDP beats expectations EU Market Update: Europe exhibits calm despite Nikkei sell-off; Swiss Q1 GDP beats expectations
Thu, 30 May 2013 5:37 AM EST

- Brazil again hikes Selic Target Rate to confront inflation
- Japanese markets saw another volatile session; Nikkei closes down over 5%; 10-year JGB 0.89%

- (JP) Japan investors sold 1.1T (**second week of net sales after 4 weeks of buys) in foreign bonds
-RBNZ Gov Wheeler said that that NZD is significantly overvalued and that he wants to diminish perceptions of NZD as a one way bet
- Australia building approvals came in at a 7-month high
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Banks' capital base won't be severely affected by 1% rise in JGB yields
- Swiss Q1 GDP handily beats expectations
- Euro Zone May confidence shows slight improvement
- Italy 5-year and 10-year auction results satisfactory despite slight uptick in borrowing costs

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e
- (UK) May Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.9%e

- (ZA) South Africa Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.0% v 9.2%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 9.1% v 8.8%e
- (ES) Spain Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.0%e
- (ES) Spain Mar Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y:1.7 % v 1.6%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e
- (TR) Turkey May Consumer Confidence: 77.5 v 75.6 prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 4.5% v 4.4%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.9% v 5.8%e
- (EU) ECB: 52M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 279M prior; 82.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 82.4B prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7% prior
- (IT) Italy Apr PPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -0.7%e
- (NO) Norway Apr Retail Sales Volume M/M: -0.6% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: +8,2% v -4.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 20.7% v 14.5%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 19.4% v 14.5%e
- (BE) Belgium May CPI M/M: 0.2%v -0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.2 v 1.0% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Business Climate Indicator: -0.76 v -0.85e; Consumer Confidence: -21.9 v -21.9e; Economic Confidence: 89.4 v 89.4e; Industrial Confidence: -13.0 v -13.0e; Services Confidence: -9.3 v -10.6e
- (PT) Portugal May Consumer Confidence: -55.0 v -54.2 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -3.2 v -3.6 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Apr PPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.7%e
- (IT) Italy's Confindustria (employers group): May Industrial Output -0.1% v +0.2% prio

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.75B vs. 4.0-5.75B indicated range in 2018 and 2023 BTP Bonds

- Sold 2.75B vs. 2.0-3.0BB indicated range in 3.5% June 2018 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 3.01% v 2.84% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.36x prior
- Sold 3.0B v 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 4.50% Nov 2023 BTP bonds, Avg yield 4.14% (highest since Mar) v 3.94%; bid to cover 1.38x v 1.42x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF53B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds


FTSE 100 -0.30% at 2,317,
DAX -0.10% at 8,325, CAC-40 +0.20% at 3,980, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 8,432, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 17,310, SMI -0.30% at 8,002, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,643

- European equity markets are mixed, following the more than 5% sell-off seen for Japan's Nikkei225 index. Banks are mostly higher, led by shares of Lloyds and Intesa. Resource related shares have tracked the recovery in copper and precious metals prices.

- UK movers [John Wood Group +2% (broker commentary),Tate & Lyle +1% (FY profits rose y/y); Tesco -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Allianz +1% (broker commentary); Linde -2.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Post -2.5% (ex-dividend), QSC -2.5% (ex-dividend), Vossloh -2% (ex-dividend), Deutsche Telekom -1.5% (technical weakness)]
- France movers [Faurecia +3% (broker commentary); Renault -1.5% (broker commentary),Vallourec -1% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Pirelli +3% (broker commentary)]

- BOJ Statement on JGB purchases for June after meeting with market participants yesterday.
It now saw total monthly purchases at about 7T and would buy JGBs on about 8-10 trading days in June versus 8 in May. It also noted that it would not conduct JGB buying operations on same day as MOF JGB auctions with same maturity
- BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso commented that deflation has been persistent challenge for Japan and BOJ easing to change inflation expectations. He reiterated the view that the central bank has been keeping close dialogue with market. He did not expect a big spike in long-term interest rates
- Japan Econ Min Amari commented that BOJ will deal with rise in yields appropriately and
Abenomics impact was starting to be felt in real economy. Japan would achieve economic recovery through increasing capex. Growth strategy was most important part of PM Abe's three arrows
- Japan PM advisor Hamada stated that he was not worried about rise in long term yields as long as real interest rates were still low. No surprise in Japan stock volatility its natural as 10-20% random stock moves were not surprising.
- ECB's Costa (Portugal) commented that the reduced profitability of banks was a main challenge, bad loans were worrisome
- Sweden Central Bank Dep Gov Ekholm commented that house price pressure might accelerate credit growth but debt growth was still lower than before financial crisis
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Jocknick commented that there were fundamentals behind strength in SEK currency (Krona) but Sweden was relying a lot of European developments
- Hungary Govt official Giro-Szasz stated that the country's next fiscal step hinged on economy and the Cabinet was not preparing an election budget for 2014
- Hungary Central Bank stated that Q1 lending conditions were strict and banks were not helping growth via lending
- Turkey Central Bank: Household liabilities rising on credit use but
remained low on a global basis and did not carry interest rate or exchange risk
- Netherlands Central bank stated that it was important for mortgage debt to be reduced and stronger bank capital buffers were desirable
- Norway Stats Office updated its economic forecasts which cut both 2013 and 2014 non-oil GDP view. It now saw 2013 non-oil GDP at 2.4% and 2014 non-oil GDP forecast at 3.0%
- Thailand Finance Ministry to cut its 2013 GDP forecast from current 5.3% next month based on lower Q1 GDP
- Kuwait OPEC gov Razzouqi: No reason to change output quotas
- Iraq Oil Minister: Most OPEC ministers seek to leave production unchanged
- Syria's President Bashar al-Assad stated that the country had already received the first shipment of an advanced Russian air defense system
- South Africa cabinet approves changes to the mining laws

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Overall the USD continued to give back ground against the major pairs.
- The sharp sell-off in the Nikkei225 Index prompted unwinding of yen-carry trade during the Asian session. The USD/JPY tested the key 101.50 hourly support several times but it managed to hold the level for the time being. The pair has a growing amount of USD sell-stops building below 100.30 through 99.70 area.
- The EUR/USD edged back towards the 1.30 area aided by a slight improvement Euro Zone May confidence data. Dealers also noted that ECB was not likely to rush into negative deposit rates despite the uptick in rhetoric.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Constancio: Reiterates ECB is logistically prepared for negative deposit rates, but no decision made yet; there are risks of imbalances as a result of the hunt for yield; Banks would need advanced notice about negative deposit rates to prepare themselves.
- (ES) Spain Budget Min Montoro: Spain will exceed economic forecasts and will surprise on the upside; Pledges not to ease off budget deficit limits for Spanish regions.
- (US) Fed's Rosengren: Reiterates QE can be adjusted higher or lower depending on outlook; Would like to see monthly employment growth above 200K; Would be open to modest reductions in bond buying in a few months time.
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Banks' capital base won't be severely affected by 1% rise in JGB yields
- (JP) Japan investors sold 1.1T (**second week of net sales after 4 weeks of buys) in foreign bonds last week vs sold 800B in prior week;
- (NZ) RBNZ Gov Wheeler: Wants to diminish perceptions NZD is a one way bet; Prepared to escalate FX intervention.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) European Union Competitiveness Council Meeting
- (BR) Brazil Apr Central Govt Budget (BRL): No est v 0.3B prior
- 06:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with EU's Barroso
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.5% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v 5.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Retail Sales M/M: No est v -2.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -6.0% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (FI) Finland PM Katainen on labor market reforms
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 24th: No est v $512.4B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Budget Balance (ZAR): -25.0Be v -15.5B prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Preliminary GDP QoQ Annualized: 2.5%e v 2.5% advance; Personal Consumption: 3.3%e v 3.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 1.2%e v 1.2% advance; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.2%e v 1.2% advance
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 340Ke v 340K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.970Me v 2.912M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.3%e v +0.1% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -0.9%e v -1.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Current Account: -$15.6Be v -$17.3B prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Manufacturing Index: +2.5%e v -3.0% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.0%e v 10.2% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Apr Total Copper Production: No est v 483.8K tons
- 10:00 (US) Apr Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 12.6%e v 5.8% prior
-10:30 (US) EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency Releases Safety Decisions
- 11:00 (US) DOE Weekly Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (FR) France Apr Net Change Jobseekers: +30.0Ke v +36.9K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.252Me v 3.2246M prior
- 12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with France President Hollande in Paris
- 12:30 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) speaks at Conference on Portugal and the EU
- 12:35 (US) OFR's Berner speaks on Financial Stability
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 14.5% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Apr YTD Budget Balance (ARS): No est v 40.2B prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Apr Jobless Rate: 4.1%e v 4.1% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Apr National CPI Y/Y: -0.8%e v -0.9% prior; Ex Food-Energy Y/Y: No est v -0.8% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Apr Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 0.7%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: -3.2%e v -6.7% prior




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