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Friday May 31, 2013 - 03:35:24 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 31-May-2013 -0333 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Nifty (6124, +19.75) may remain ranged between 6200 to 6000 in the next few days. The markets will keenly watch Q4, FY13 GDP figures for trend.

Dow Jones (15324.50, +21.73) will face a stiff channel resistance around 15500 which may limit the upside in Dow for now. Supports come in at 15000.

Dax (8400.20, +63.62) may consolidate between 8400 and 8200 for a few more days. The supports around 8200 is holding for now and the short term trend continues to be bullish.

Nikkei (13805.00, +216.00) has found some support around the 13600 levels. The broader trend in Nikkei will remain up as long as 13200 hold. We see an upside move to 14400 in the medium term.

The Shanghai (2318.16, +0.63) looks bullish and may see a move to 2375 in the short term. We expect 2300 to lend good support to this upmove.


COMMODITIES
Gold (1419) has moved above the resistance around 1400 levels and may see a move to 1450. Now 1400 becomes a very good support for Gold.

Silver (22.81) has also negated a short term down trend and may see a move to 24 if maintains its head above 22.70. However the trend in Silver is weaker than Gold.

Brent (102.18) seems to be moving in a trading range between 101 to 104. We expect the range to hold in coming days.

Copper (3.32) may remain sideways between 3.25 to 3.40 in the coming days.


CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.30375) is closing in on a very strong resistance band between 1.3050 to 1.3070. However if the resistance of 1.3050 gets taken out we may see the move on the upside to 1.3115. Supports for the Euro come in at 1.2950.

Dollar-Swiss (0.95409) has broken below the supports of 0.96 on global weakness in Dollar. The down move may take the Dollar-Swiss down to the levels of 0.9480.

The Dollar-Yen (101.058) is precariously poised around the pivot of 101 for now. We expect the price action to remain ranged between 102 to 100 in coming days.

Euro-Yen (131.738) has moved back above 131 on the back of strength in Euro. We expect the Euro-Yen to remain in a trading band between 133 to 131 for now.

The Pound (1.5227) has formed a double bottom around 1.50. We expect the Pound to move higher to 1.54. Short term supports stand at 1.5150.

Bounce in Gold and weakness in Dollar has pulled the Aussie (0.9630) back above the 0.96 levels. We may see the Aussie attempt a move towards the 0.97 levels. However the upmove seems to lack strength.

Dollar-Rupee (56.39) may open lower on the weakness in Dollar. As the Dollar Index has moved back to 83, we may see the Rupee strengthen to 56.10 or thereabout. We expect the Dollar-rupee to remain between 56.60 to 55.90 during the day.


INTEREST RATES
The US Q1 GDP was revised down to 2.40% yesterday from the 2.48% Advance estimate earlier on 26-Apr. This has given some relief to the markets and the US Yields have dipped a bit. The 10-Yr has come down to 2.11% from 2.14% and the 30-Yr is 3.27% from 3.28% the day before. The overall trend

Japanese Yields (5-Yr 0.38%, 10-Yr 0.88% and 30-Yr 1.78%) have been rising since April. But, they face trend Resistance near current levels and could come off a bit. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/jpysin00.shtml#sin00

The US-Japan Yield 10-Yr Spread (1.23%) has a Double Bottom. A further rise could support the Dollar-Yen (101.08).

German Yields (10-Yr 1.52%) is rising. The Germany-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.59%) has moved up a couple of basis points. While there is trend Resistance near current levels (1.3035) on the EURUSD, a further rise in the German-US Yield Spread (if seen) could push EURUSD higher towards 1.3115.


DATA TODAY
JP PMI
...Actual 51.5...Previous 51.1

JP Unemp
...Actual 4.10 % ...Previous 4.10 %

0:01 GMT or 5:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -25 ...Previous -27

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST IN GDP
...Previous - 4.50 %

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 12.2 % ...Previous 12.1%

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Personal Income
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.23 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.18 %


DATA YESTERDAY
CH GDP
...Actual 0.60 % ...Previous 0.2 %

EU Biz Climate
...Actual 89.40 ...Previous 88.60

US GDP
...Actual 2.40 % ...Previous 2.48 %

 

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John M. Bland, MBA
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