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Monday June 3, 2013 - 05:43:20 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: The tale of two China Manufacturing PMIs - Source

- (CN) CHINA MAY MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.8 V 50.0E; 8th consecutive month of expansion >- (CN) CHINA MAY HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.2 V 49.6E - (CN) CHINA MAY NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.3 V 54.5 PRIOR (15th straight month of expansion) - (JP) JAPAN Q1 CAPITAL SPENDING: -3.9% V -6.0%E (2nd consecutive decline); CAPITAL SPENDING EX-SOFTWARE: -5.2% V -5.5%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 COMPANY OPERATING PROFIT Q/Q: 3.0% V 1.5%E; INVENTORIES Q/Q: -0.6% V 0.0%E >- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX (PMI): 43.8 V 36.7 PRIOR (16th month of contraction) - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY ANZ JOB ADS M/M: -2.4% V -1.7% PRIOR (3rd consecutive decline, biggest decline in 5 months) - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY RPDATA-RISMARK HOUSE PX ACTUAL: -1.2% V -0.5% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.2% V 0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.1% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.2%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.4% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.1 V 52.6 PRIOR - (VN) VIETNAM MAY HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI 48.8 V 51.0 PRIOR (first contraction in 3 months) - (TW) TAIWAN MAY HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.1 V 50.7 PRIOR (1st contraction since Nov 2012) - (ID) INDONESIA APR TOTAL TRADE BALANCE: $M V $51ME; EXPORTS Y/Y: -9.1% V -7.4%E - (ID) INDONESIA MAY INFLATION M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 5.5% V 5.6%E; CORE INFLATION: 4.0% V 4.1%E - (TH) THAILAND MAY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.1%E ***Markets Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -2.2% - S&P/ASX -0.1% - Kospi -0.2% - Shanghai Composite +0.2% - Hang Seng +0.5% - Jun S&P500 +0.3% at 1,633 - Aug gold +0.1% at $1,394/oz - Jul crude oil -0.1% at $91.90/brl ***Observations/Insights*** - Asian equity markets are trading modestly mixed with the exception of Nikkei225, where broad-based losses tracked more Yen short covering on Friday and continued uncertainty related to the impact of rising JGB yields on bank balance sheets. Japanese banks are broadly lower, with Nomura off by over 7%, Mitsubishi UFJ down 3.7%, and SMFG falling over 5% even as 10-yr yields fell about 2.5bps in the wake of BOJ announcement of near 1T bond purchases. USD/JPY is off last week's 100.20s lows but just modestly, trading above 100.50. - Outside of another outsized slide in Tokyo, the spotlight fell on suspiciously diverging manufacturing PMI prints out of China. The official release from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing early on Saturday came in at 50.8, well above 50.0 consensus, confounding analysts looking for a deterioration after the HSBC flash PMI for the 1st half of the month. However, the subsequent release of the final HSBC figure showing that the 2nd half produced even further deceleration to 49.2, down from the preliminary reading of 49.6 and 50.4 in April, made the discrepancy particularly glaring. The HSBC print also marked the lowest reading since October 2012 with exports orders falling for the second consecutive month and the new orders component falling to 48.7, the first reading below 50 since September 2012. Analysts have in part attributed the divergence to a two-tier performance, where the large state-owned firms outpace the squeezed-out smaller institutions surveyed by the HSBC. Others continued to question the accuracy of China's official economic data, deferring to industry indicators such as power consumption and bank lending on tap to be released next week. AUD/USD opened above $0.96 handle, up about 50pips after the release of off-hours report and largely preserved those gains after another modest increase in Australia retail sales and Q1 corporate profit data. Note the RBA meets tomorrow, as analysts speculate on whether the historically optimistic central bank will say more to acknowledge Australia's mining-driven malaise and flag a more pronounced bias in favor of more easing. ***Fixed Income/Commodities*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 200B govt debt with more than 10-yr maturity; to buy 500B 3-5yr govt debt; to buy 200B in 1-3yr govt debt - (CN) HSBC exec sees yuan may be fully convertible by 2015 - Taiwanese press - (KR) South Korea sells 30-yr govt bonds, avg yield 3.375% - (AU) Survey sees Australia April coal exports +5% m/m, +6.9% y/y at 27.6M tons - financial press - GLD: NYU Economist Roubini: Gold prices may continue to fall to about $1,000/oz by the end of 2015 ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) research center: 2013 retail sales growth seen around 13% y/y (14.5% official target) - China Daily - (CN) China stats bureau researcher Pan: China can achieve 7.5% GDP target in 2013 - China Daily - (CN) China's deputy chief of general staff of the PLA: China warships to continue patrolling waters where it has territorial claims - financial press - (CN) Nomura chief China economist: Given mixed manufacturing PMI signals, would prefer to wait for "full set of activity data such as industrial production and electricity production to judge the momentum of the economy" - financial press - (CN) Shanghai new home sales +19.0% w/w at 257K sqm, avg new home prices +15.7% w/w at 25.3K/sqm - Uwin - (CN) China May home prices m/m: +0.8% v 1.0% prior (consecutive rise for 12 months) - Soufun - (JP) Japan firms seen to increase foreign investments in FY13 - Nikkei News - (JP) Goldman Sachs's former head of Asset Management, Jim O'Neill: Agrees with BOJ Gov Kuroda that if JGB yields rise without real recovery, consequences for Japan's banking system would be dire - UK press - (JP) BOJ skips fixed-rate fund supply operation (1st time in 2.5 months) - financial press - (KR) Director General at Stats Korea: Hard to say if the economy is showing an upturn yet - financial press - (KR) Bank of Korea: BOK gov Kim and Fin Min Hyun will hold a meeting tomorrow on topics of South Korea economy - (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hyun: More needs to be done at the G8 level to counter the impact of Abenomics - FT - (HK) Hong Kong Financial Secy Tsang: Maintains 2013 headline inflation at 4.5%; Decline in global competitiveness is cyclical - (EU) German chancellor Merkel: Opposed to giving EU wider powers; would prefer more integrated cooperation among the 27 EU nations - German press - (EU) ECB's Draghi: Sees a "few signs of possible stabilization" in euro zone economy, but vulnerabilities remain - Int'l Monetary Conf (Shanghai) >- (CH) SNB President Jordan: CHF still highly valued at current levels; Appreciation pressure may return despite recent easing - Swiss press - (UK) BOE Gov King expected to reiterate his preference for more easing at this week's MPC policy meeting, which is his last before stepping down - UK press - (US) Fed's Yellen (dove, FOMC voter): Not convinced that the new bank rules go far enough, may be appropriate to go beyond new rules for biggest banks ***Equities*** - TPI.AU: Sees FY13 underlying NPAT A$60-67M; Announces CEO's intention to resign - COH.AU: Sees FY12/13 Net A$130-135M; To release new Nucleus 6 processor - NEC 6701.JP: Seeking to form mobile phone JV with Lenovo - financial press - Mazda 7261.JP: Reports China vehicle sales 13.8k units -11.6% y/y - RIO: May spin off its diamond division in a deal valued as much as $5B - UK press - BA: Japan Airlines (JAL) discovered a fault with the modified Dreamliner 787 aircraft and was forced to use a different plane - financial press - MA: China blocks the MasterCard CNY venture - FT -


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