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Monday June 3, 2013 - 09:39:10 GMT
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Global PMI data improving. Active calendar week
|Global PMI data improving. Active calendar week|
3 June 2013 10:00 gmt
CALENDAR North America: US- Markit PMI, ISM PMI, Construction Spending
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: PMI's AU/CH/FR/DE/EZ/GB/US
- Far East PMI data released since last Friday have been mixed. In China, recent data suggest the economy is slowinig. Australian mfg PMI rebounded sharply from an exxtremely low level, but remains very depressed.
- In Europe, manufacturing PMI data improved across the board with positive data released by Switzerland and the U.K. The Eurozone improved t just below the 50 expansion line.
- We set out a new trading theme several weeks ago that has been working well. With the Fed now in a "transition phase" out of QE, the best barometer of market sentiment we know of is how bond yields perform. Twice each trading day we post a table of key bond yields on the Forex Forum..We are looking mainly at the 10-yr bond. Today:
- As for the Fed's transition, expect it to stretch over an extended period of time. By an extended period of time, we mean years not months. Fed Chair Bernanke would like to see a transition with as little disruption to the markets as possible. Financial markets tend to have short attention spans so it might take them a while to adjust to the Fed's time frame.
- The pace of the Fed adjustment will be governed by the performance of U.S. employment data, so the monthly employment data due on Friday and related statistics in the week ahead will be very important to traders.
- This week sees Central bank policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the ECB and the Bank of England. All three are expected to hold key rates steady, but are thought to be looking for other means of promoting economic growth.
- Bottom-line this is is a USD market, but its price performance against the majors recently has been lackluster.
||JGB 0.82% -3bp
||Asia Close Lower|
||Bund 1.50% 0bp
||U.S. 2.14% -2bp
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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