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Monday June 3, 2013 - 10:22:27 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing data saw the pace of the contraction ease EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing data saw the pace of the contraction ease
Mon, 03 Jun 2013 5:43 AM EST

- Diverging manufacturing PMI prints out of China. Official Govt PMI came in at 50.8, well above 50.0 consensus while subsequent release of the final HSBC 49.2 v 49.6e
- ECB's Draghi: Sees a "few signs of possible stabilization" in euro zone economy, but vulnerabilities remain
- SNB President Jordan: CHF still highly valued at current levels
- Sectarian conflict worsens throughout Middle East - while in Turkey - protests spread
- Overall European PMI Manufacturing saw the pace of the contraction eased; Spanish manufacturing sector moved much closer to stabilization

- Dealers noting key event risks and data due over the week wit rate decision out of RBA, BOE and ECB. US May payrolls

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan May Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -7.3% v +2.0% prior
- (IN) India May HSBC-Markit Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 51.0 prior; falls for third straight month and lowest reading since March 2009
- (RU) Russia May Manufacturing PMI: 50.4 50.4e; 5-month low

- (SE) Sweden May Swedbank PMI Survey: 51.9 v 50.2e
- (AU) Australia May RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 87.0 v 85.5 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -8.6% v -7.3% prior
- (NO) Norway May PMI Survey: 52.0 v 49.5e
- (NL) Netherlands May Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 v 48.2 prior
- (HU) Hungary May PMI Manufacturing: 47.1 v 51.5 prior
- (TR) Turkey May Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 v 51.3 prior
- (PL) Poland May Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 v 47.8e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Final Trade Balance: 784.0M v 753.4M prelim
- (TR) Turkey May Consumer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e, Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.9%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.5%e
- (TR) Turkey May Producer Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.7% prior
- (EU) ECB: 24M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 916M prior; 85.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 85.6 prior
- (ES) Spain May Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 v 45.5e, still 25th straight month of contraction
- (CZ) Czech Republic May Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 49.8e
- (CH) Swiss May PMI Manufacturing: 52.2 v 50.9e
- (GR) Greece end-April General Govt arrears at 7.5B v 8.2B prior month
- (IT) Italy May PMI Manufacturing: 47.3 v 46.2e
- (FR) France May Final PMI Manufacturing: 46.4 v 45.5e
- (DE) Germany May Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.4 v 49.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone May Final PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 47.8e; 15 month high

- (GR) Greece May Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 v 45.0 prior; (highest since April 2011, 45th straight month of contraction)
- (DE) Germany May CPI Hesse M/M: +0.5% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 0.9% prior
- (UK) May PMI Manufacturing: 51.3 v 50.3e; 14-month high
- (DK) Denmark May PMI Survey: 55.8 v 49.0 prior
- (ZA) South Africa May Kagiso PMI: 50.4 v 50.5 prior
- (NO) Norway May Housing Prices M/M: +0.1%; Y/Y: +6.5%

Fixed Income:
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency planning to sell 5-year USD-denominated benchmark bonds, initial pricing guidance is +38bps over mid-swaps
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency sold total 2.38B vs. 2.0-4.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 1.28B vs. 2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.033% v -0.036% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.0x v 3.02x prior
- Sold 1.14B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.005% v -0.015% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 3.47x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6,537,
DAX -1% at 8,267, CAC-40 -0.90% at 3,912, FTSE MIB -0.80% at 17,083, SMI -1.1% at 7,861, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,631

- European equity markets are broadly lower, as Japan's Nikkei225 declined by over 3.5%. Most Asian indices ended lower, amid the rise in US bond yields and weaker than expected China HSBC manufacturing PMI data. In Turkey, the main equity market has declined by over 4%, after anti-government protests occurred in Istanbul over the weekend. Switzerland's SMI index has lost over 1%, weighed down by shares of Roche. European banks are broadly lower, led by shares of Commerzbank and Credit Suisse. Resource related firms are mostly higher, in line with the gains being seen for copper prices. Event risks for this week include monthly US payrolls data and European central bank rate decisions (Bank of England and ECB). In terms of European economic fundamentals, most of the PMI manufacturing data released showed improvements on a m/m basis.

- UK movers [Polymetal +2.5% (broker commentary), Oxford Biomedica -15% (halted recruitment in 3 phase I studies)]
- Germany movers [IVG -21% (updated restructuring plan), Fraport -3.5% (ex-dividend), MunichRe and HannoverRe have declined by over 3% (concerns related floods in Central Europe)]
- France movers [Sanofi -1.5% (data related to Inparib), Peugeot and Renault lower by over 1% (France May car registrations -10.3%)]
- Italy movers [Exor +2.5% (asset sale);Finmeccanica -1.5% (possible delay related to sale of defense unit)]
- Switzerland movers [Roche -2% (disappointing data related to Avastin), UBS -1% (probe related to French unit)]

- BOE quarterly FLS update: Q1 Net Lending -300M
with cumulative Net Lending since Jun: -1.8B
- BOE's Fisher: Flat lending was broadly as expected; Net lending expected to pich up in 2013
- German aid to small and medium enterprises in Spain said to be 1.0B
- Norway said to offer early termination of swap agreements in whichit would roll over bills in swap agreement on Jun 19th
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos: Future lies with single currency; competitiveness key to survival in Euro Area
- Turkey PM Erdogan: Protests are being organized by 'extreme elements'
- Moody's: Hungary's debt risk are very high because of potential HUF (Forint) weakness and govt steps. Moody's forecasted 2013 GDP growth at 0.2% and added that weak investment was a major factor for low growth.
- China PBoC's Zhou reiterated the view that good time to liberalize rates and also reiterated that Govt was monitoring hot money flows. He pledge that China would not competitively depreciate the CNY (Yuan) (**Note: CNY currency firmed by 0.5% in May vs. prior 0.7% April appreciation)
- India Fin Min Chidambaram commented that it night review gold import policy to contain demand as it could not afford high levels of gold imports.
- South Korea Fin Min official Gwak commented that bond market stability was most important but cautioned that volatility might increase in H2. Govt to make effort to ensure stability in a predictably way
- IATA raised its 2013 airline industry profitability forecast to $12.7B from $10.6B citing increased seat occupancy

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Euro holding steady at 1.3020 areas as the overall European PMI Manufacturing has seen the pace of the contraction eased. Dealers were looking ahead to Thursday's ECB rate decision noted that it was not likely for ECB to take deposit rates below zero as numerous members of the governing council continue to sound unconvinced of the merits. The Euro might be vulnerable if the ECB revised its macro outlook and could take on an attractive funding currency (aka carry-trade)
- The GBP/USD pair received a boost after ist PMI reading handily beat expectations.
- The USD/JPY tested 1-month lows at parity after the Nikkei225 fell by another 3.7%. The Japanese stock market was now 15% off its May 22nd high. Dealers noting that USD sell-stops building below 99.70 area.

Political/In the Papers:
- PMI data for China was released over the weekend: China May Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 v 50.0e with Non-Manufacturing PMI being recorded at 54.3 v 54.5 prior. China May HSBC Manufacturing PMI was 49.2 v 49.6e.
- ECB's Draghi said the single supervisory mechanism for banks will take effect in June after noting a "few signs of possible stabilization" in euro zone economy.
Speaking at the International Monetary conference in Shanghai over the weekend, Draghi noted that the baseline scenario is for a very gradual recovery later during the year. He added that introduction of OMT which was designed to maintain yields below panic levels has helped increase deposits in stressed nations by 200B since its announcement.
- Rio Tinto looking to raise capital: Over the weekend the press reported Rio may spin off its diamond division in a deal valued as much as $5B and that both Glencore and Blackstone are looking at taking a possible stake in their Canada iron-ore unit valued up to $4.0B.
- (EU) EU President Van Rompuy: Funding for small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) are one of the biggest obstacles to economic recovery; EIB and ECB to develop proposals before the June summit to help small and medium sized firms.
-(EU) German chancellor Merkel: Opposed to giving EU wider powers; Would prefer more integrated cooperation among the 27 EU nations - German press
-Bank of International Settlements (BIS) Cecchetti: Bond yields will go up as recovery takes hold; Shakeout in bonds is a sign of things to come
-(DE) About 5K protesters marched in Frankfurt, Germany to voice opposition to European austerity measures - financial press
-(ES) Spain PM Rajoy: unemployment figures due out on June 4 will be "clearly encouraging"
-(ES) Spain Fin Min de Guindos: Spain is on the way out of the crisis; have not seen any unusual investment emanating from Japan; There is no currency war, Yen devaluation risk has not materialized.
-(ES) Bank of Spain calls for the suspension of the minimum wage to boost employment- El Pais
-(US) Treasury confirms to implement extraordinary measures to avoid debt ceiling limit; will suspend reinvestment of assets in the Govt pension fund; allowing $160B in borrowing capacity
-(KR) South Korea Fin Min Hyun: More needs to be done at the G8 level to counter the impact of Abenomics - FT
- (JP) BoJ is reportedly considering plans to offer two-year funds in open market operations - financial press; Currently the longest period offered by the BoJ in fixed-rate operations is one year; The plan may be discussed at the next BoJ policy review on June 10-11.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CZ) Czech May Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -16.5B prior
- EU-Russia Summit in Yekaterinburg
- (RU) Russia May Reserve Fund: No est v $84.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $87.3B prior
- (IT) Italy May Budget Balance: No est v -11.0B prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:20 (US) Fed's Williams Speaks in Stockholm
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.8B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 08:58 (US) May Final Markit PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.9 prelim
- 09:00 (PT) Portugal Econ Min Pereira
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil May PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.8 prior
- 09:30 (SG) Singapore May Purchasing Managers Index: No est v 50.3 prior; Electronics Sector Index: No est v 51.2 prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) May ISM Manufacturing: 50.5e v 50.7 prior; Prices Piad: 49.5e v 50.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Construction Spending M/M: 1.0%e v -1.7% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Remittances: No est v $1.8B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55b in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy May New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -10.8% prior
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Q1 Current Account (ISK): No est v -13B prior
- 12:30 (DE) Germany Cross-Party Finance Lawmakers at Podium on Euro: Berlin
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico May IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 51.8 prior; Non Manufacturing: No est v 52.2 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil May Trade Balance: No est v -$994M prior; Exports: No est v $20.6B prior; Imports: No est v $21.6B prior
- 17:00 (US) May Total Vehicle Sales: 15.10Me v 14.88M prior; Domestic Vehicle sales: 11.95e v 11.76M prior

On Tuesday:
- (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Cash Target rate unchanged at 2.75% prior



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