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Monday June 3, 2013 - 21:37:24 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex - Westpac Morning Report

Morning Report Tuesday 4 June  2013

 

 

Market wrap
Global market sentiment: Weaker US data capped sentiment and hurt the US dollar. The ISM manufacturing survey index fell to 49 - the lowest level since July 2009, and probably pushing the chance of a Fed tapering signal at its June meeting to near zero. The EUrostoxx 50 close down 0.8% while the S&P500 is currently down 0.1%. The CRB commodities index is up 1.1% (copper +1.3%, Brent crude +1.8%, iron ore +1.4%).

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields fell from 2.19% to 2.07% around the US data but then partly recovered to 2.14%. Fed dove Lockhart said a tapering signal was possible by summer, but he isn’t a voter and had little impact. Australian 3yr government bond futures similarly fell from 2.68% to 2.61% around the data but partly recovered to 2.65%.

Currencies: The US dollar index fell by around 1.0% to a 4-week low following the US data, boosting most of the majors. EUR rose from 1.2960 to 1.3108. USD/JPY fell from 100.50 to 98.87 before partly recovering to 99.50. AUD rose from 96.20 to 97.92. NZD rose from 0.7960 to 0.8119. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.2040 to 1.2100.

Economic wrap
The final releases for the May Eurozone manufacturing PMIs were generally all revised higher. France was revised up to 46.4 from 45.5, Germany from 49.0 to 49.4 while the first readings for Italy (47.3 from 45.5) and UK (51.3 from 50.23) all showed improvement from the previous month. The improvement resulted in the Eurozone-wide number being revised up to 48.3 from 47.8. In general, a positive set of results with improvements in the periphery led by new orders and a reversal of the past two months declines in Germany.

US ISM manufacturing bucked the European trend, however, surprising to the downside and falling back below 50 for the first time since last November. The headline slipped to 49 in May from 50.7 versus market expectations of a modest rise to 51.0. The detail was soft too with weakness in both new orders (48.8 from 52.3) and production (48.6 from 53.5) although the employment sub-index was relatively stable at 50.1 from 50.2.

Market outlooks
Event risk today: Today’s highlight will be the RBA meeting, where an hold decision is expected following its 25bp cut in May. Westpac expects another cut in August though. There’s also Australia’s current account release to keep an eye on.

NZD/USD 1 day: This corrective bounce could extend to 0.8150 today.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 has been broken and a decline towards 0.7800 is looking increasingly likely. Local fundamentals remain supportive but extreme long speculative positioning warns of a cleanout.
AUD/USD 1 day: This corrective bounce is now in its fourth day and could reach 0.9840 today, but watch out for any RBA surprise – from either action or commentary.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The contracting range since July 2011 has broken down, pointing to sub-0.95 during the next few months. The Australian data flow is unsupportive, and the RBA is likely to ease further to 2.0% by Q1 2014.
AUD/NZD 1 day: Above 1.2100 possible but the RBA will dominate today.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A corrective rally to at least 1.2150 is in store before the trend decline resumes below 1.1800. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Taking the lead from US and Australian bond yields since Friday (see above) it should open up 1bp at 2.96%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: The 2.80% level should now provide solid support in the event of any corrective declines if Fed QE reduction fears subside. Late-2013, though, we expect a rise above 3.20% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014.

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 4 June 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

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