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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Constructives data session for Europe; Spain Net unemployment declines more than expected while UK PMI Construction moves into growth territory

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Constructives data session for Europe; Spain Net unemployment declines more than expected while UK PMI Construction moves into growth territory
Tue, 04 Jun 2013 5:43 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA leaves Cast Target Rate unchanged (as expected) but signals further cuts possible.
- Bilderberg conference kicks off in an undisclosed location in Hertfordshire county southern England
- Turkey protests continue for 5th day; govt looks for ways to curb protests; Turkish bond yield move lower as TRY currency (Lira) recovers
- Spain Net Unemployment declines for third straight month
- UK PMI Construction moves into growth territory for first time in eight months
- Market debates whether US economic recovery is robust enough for Fed to scale back stimulus (tapering)
- Investors are gearing up for Japan PM Abe's address to parliament on Wed and expected to reveal the government's growth targets (3rd arrow)


***Economic Data***
- (CZ) Czech Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -1.1% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -1.9%e; 6th straight quarterly contraction and longest string of quarterly contractions since records began in 1996
- (ES) Spain May Net Unemployment M/M: -98.3K v -50.0Ke; third straight monthly decline
- (EU) ECB 151M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 24M prior; 101.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 85.6B prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr Service Production M/M: -1.2% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v +1.6%e
- (UK) May PMI Construction: 50.8 v 49.8e; first growth in 8 months
- (DE) German May new car registrations 261.3K units, -9.9% y/y - VDIK
- (DE) German May new car registrations: 261.3k units, -9.9% y/y - KBA
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr PPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.2%e
- (ZA) South Africa May Sacci Business Confidence: 90.4 v 92.3 prior

Fixed Income:
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.3B vs. 1.43B indicated in 2017 and 2023 bonds (retained 130M)

- Sold 650M in 4.3% Sept 2017 RAGB Bonds; Avg Yield 0.642% v 0.829% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.76x v 2.75x prior
- Sold 650 in 1.75% 2023 RAGB; Avg Yield 1.903% v 1.621% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.24x v 2.26x prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2031, 2036 and 2048 Bonds
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK15.0B vs. SEK15.0B indicated in 4-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted 103.0B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF756.9M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.127% v -0.123% prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 1.68B vs. 2.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 760M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.018% v -0.001% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.02x v 7.86x prior
- Sold 920M in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.047% v +0.014% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.99x v3.66 x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.19% v 4.21% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.86x v 1.4x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 1.6B in I/L 0.125% 2024 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.758% v -1.262% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.95x v 1.86x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6,554,
DAX +0.50% at 8,329, CAC-40 +0.40% at 3,937, IBEX-35 +0.80% 8,354, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 17,200, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,635

- Equity markets in European are broadly higher, but trading off of the session's best levels. Markets have tracked the gains seen in Japanese and US equity markets. Gains have been seen across the European banking sector led by shares of SocGen. Resource related companies are broadly higher, tracking the gains in copper prices. Overall, markets continue to focus on US economic data for clues about when the US Fed could reduce the size of its asset purchases program.

- UK movers [Rentokil +2.5% (speculation related to Balfour Beatty); Cobham -4.5% (share placement), Wolseley -3% (reported Q3 results)]
- Germany movers [Kabel Deutschland +2% (renewed takeover speculation); Kloeckner -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [STMicroelectronics +4.5% (CEO commentary), Scor +3% (acquisition), SocGen +2% (broker commentary); Rexel -0.50% (share placement)]
- Italy movers [Generali +1% (asset sale)]
- The Netherlands movers [Ahold -1% (Q1 sales below ests)]

Speakers:
- ESM's Regling
commented that was in final stages of talks on direct bank aid and this could start once ECB supervision begins
- BOE FPC members questioned in Parliament
- BOE's Furse: FPC already had powerful tools and did not need control over leverage ratio at this time. Euro Zone would pose risk to UK stability and growth for some time
- BOE's Sharp: Rise in long term rates risks disorder in financial markets
- BOE's Taylor: FPCs inability to control banks gross leverage is a major weakness
- Turkey Dep PM Arinc stated that he had positive discussions with President Gul regarding resolution of protests and would unveil more details shortly
- Japan PM Abe commented ahead of Wednesday's third arrow speech that he saw unstable movements in financial markets but signs of recovery in production, consumption and GDP. He noted that the strong yen resulted in companies less interest to invest and to utilize all measures to promote private sector investment which was a main sector for growth.
- South Korea Fin Min Hyun: Might expand tax benfits for companies hiring part-time workers. Govt looked to increase part-time workers to 2.42M by 2017 from the 1.49M level seen in 2012. Economic management to focus on unemployment rate while it previously looked at growth rate
- South Africa to deploy 'peacekeeping' force to end violence at union mining sights
- Morgan Stanley economist Ahya: Sees possible start to unwind of Fed QE by the end of the year
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco commented that its sovereign rating might be closer to an upgrade from Moody's as he believed the country's budget surplus, economic growth and elections results were all credit positive (**Note: Moody's currently has the Philippines at Ba1 (highest level of junk status)
- Goldman stated that it saw Turkish Central bank providing a backstop for TRY (Lira) weakness
- (SE) Nordea analyst: Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) seen holding Repo Rate steady in July in a 'close call

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX market continued to debate whether US economic recovery was robust enough for Fed to scale back stimulus (tapering). The ISM data on Monday reduced expectations for the time being but the real focus will be on Friday's Non-Farm Payroll data and its implications for the longer-term USD trend
- The EUR/USD moved higher after Spain registered a steeper than expected decline in its net unemployment.
- The GBP/USD was unable to sustain its gains despite its PMI Construction data moving into growth territory for the forst time in eight months
- The USD/JPY moved back above the parity level ahead of Wednesday's speech by Japan PM to reveal the government's growth targets (3rd arrow)

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) The ECB may not announce any large scale measures aimed at increasing the flow of credit - FT
-(EU) ECB's Coeure (France): ECB has room for diversity as it faces crisis; reiterates BoJ's stimulus action not proven to have negative global effects; Reiterates expects euro zone GDP growth to return to positive territory by year end; sees slow recovery path.
- (EU) EU commission to propose a single bank resolution authority and fund; to be financed by banks' contributions - financial press citing draft paper
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) said to have sold its Spain bond holdings
- Germany Christian Democrats parliament leader: Open to easing Greece's financial obligations by adjusting terms (not cutting debt), but unwilling to give more leniency to France on meeting its deficit reduction targets
-(DE) IMF cuts Germany growth forecast to +0.3% in 2013 from +0.6% prior; 2014 GDP expected below +1.5%
- (GR) Rhode Island (US) based private investment firm, Japonica Partners, has launched a tender offer for up to 2.9B of Greece debt, offering to buy up to 10% of all outstanding Greek bonds - ekathimerini
-(GR) Greece's revenue target of 2.6B from privatization in 2013 is looking more and more like it will not be reached; state privatization fund TAIPED is showing limited Rev for H1 - Greek press
- (PT) Portugal unions call for general strike on June 27 to protest austerity measures
-(US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC non-voter): Reiterates that the time is approaching when the Fed will need to consider altering asset purchases - TV interview; Cannot exclude the possibility that QE might be reduced by this summer; Would support reducing QE spending in August or September, reducing QE would not be the same as exiting asset purchases.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) NATO Defense Ministers Meet in Brussels
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q2 BER Business Confidence: 50.0e v 52.0 prior
- 06:00 (IR) Ireland Apr Property Prices M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.0% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -5.3% prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Apr annual inflation:
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2.0B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.024% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.8x prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Term Deposit tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PT) Portugal Econ Min Pereira
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Industrial Production M/M: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 7.2%e v -3.3% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$500Me v -C$20M prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Trade Balance: -$41.1Be v -$38.8B prior

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (FI) Finland Fin Min Urpilainen on EMU
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Consumer Confidence: 95.5e v 95.7 prior
- 09:45 (US) May ISM New York: 55.0e v 58.3 prior
- 10:00 (EU) ECB's Costa (Portugal) in Parliament
- 10:00 (ES) Spain Fin Min De Guindos in Parliament
- 10:00 (IR) Iran sanction hearings
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark May Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): No est v 491.7B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Jun IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 50.0e v 45.1 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in4-Week Bills
- 12:15 (US) IMF chief Lagarde on global outlook
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Raskin on employment in Washington DC
- 13:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble attends Panel Discussion on CDU Election Platform
- 13:30 (US) Fed's George Speaks on Economy in New Mexico
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (CL) Colombia May Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.4% prior
- 19:00 (US) Former President Clinton speaks in Toronto
- 20:00 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks on Monetary Policy in Toronto
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 3.1% prior
- 21:45 (CN) China May HSBC Services PMI: No est v 51.1 prior
- (JP) Japan PM Abe presents his 'third arrow' speech

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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